Jean Dujardin Wins Best Actor at SAG Awards!!!

Well, the SAG awards was pretty darn dull until the last half hour when French star Jean Dujardin triumphed over George Clooney to win Best Actor tonight! Suprising? Non. Pas moi! I predicted as much on this blog the post before last. George Clooney has never won a SAG award and I quipped “There’s probably a reason for that.”

George, I guess they just don’t like you THAT much! They like you. But they don’t REALLY like you. And for this extremely American-centric, Xenophobic Screen Actor’s Guild to award their BIG Award BEST ACTOR to a Frenchman! Mon dieu! C’est incroyable! C’est presque impossible! Mais C’EST VRAI!

And Jean gave the most adorable acceptance speech, funny, and moving…
I’m sure it will be all over You Tube in a matter of seconds, but you can see MOI interviewing Jean and his glamorous Argentinian/French co-star Berenice Bejo at www.youtube.com/StephenHoltShow

Predicting right to they themselves that they’d be going to the Kodak Pavillion in February! And it’s almost February!

So Best Actor was the one big Weinstein Co. win tonight. The Screen Actors Guild only gives out five awards. Best Ensemble AND Best Actress AND Best Supporting Actress all went shockingly to “The Help.”

It was an upset after “The Artist”s director Michel Hazanaviscius won Best Director at the DGA last night.

“The Help” COULD perhaps be perceived as perhaps making this year’s Oscar race a two-way race now between “The Help” and “The Artist” and a case COULD be made for that point of view. Except for the fact that “The Help” did not receive a Best Director nomination, nor did it receive any screenwriting or below-the-line technical nominations. It was nominated for Best Picture, Best Actress and two Supporting Actress nominations and that was it. It didn’t even get Best Song from Mary J.Blige.

Now, I’ve often said how the Academy has had a lot of personal resentment for Meryl Streep in the past. But now that she’s 62 and she’s playing quite aged most of the time in “The Iron Lady” there’s a sympathy for her that I have never felt before, since, well, the earliest days of her Oscar career, like around the time of “Sophie’s Choice” which is arguably one of the greatest performances by an actress on-screen of all time.

So now we know, as I’ve heard over and over again from FEMALE members of SAG, of “She’s gotten everything, including all the parts, why should we give her ANOTHER Oscar?” She’s got two, one for Best Actress for “Sophie’s Choice” and one for Supporting Actress for “Kramer vs.Kramer.” in the 80s!

And she wasn’t helping herself with the extremely dowdy brown drape dress she was wearing. Literally. The curtains. It looked like she was wearing the curtains, Miss Scarlett.

And Clooney. I told you how I noticed how rattled I thought he was and tired at the Golden Globes in his acceptance speech. And I knew why. He had just had to follow Jean Dujardin’s incredibly funny and moving win for Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical.

This year everyone has been noting that POWER of SAG seems to have grown. So it makes a very good case for Jean Dujardin winning again at the Oscars, and not George. “The Descendants” got NO-thing.

And he’ll probably win at the BAFTAS, too, later this week. And be as equally as funny and charming as he was tonight AND at the Golden Globes.

Jean Dujardin reminds me of a cross between Clark Gable and Gene Kelly and Maurice Chevalier(when he was young.) He’s irresistible.

And so he’ll continue his march to the Oscars. As will the wonderful Christopher Plummer who won tonight as Best Supporting Actor. And his speech was better tonight. So was Octavia Spencer’s speech. She looked wonderful and really READY to win and be the star that everybody, inexplicably, wants her to be.

But the Screen Actor’s Guild isn’t THE ACADEMY. There’s an overlap, but not all that much. There’s 300,000 members of SAG and only 1,500 members of the Academy’s Actors Branch. And most members of AMPAS don’t even BOTHER to vote in the SAGs. The Academy is nothing if not tres exclusif, bien sur.

And “The Artist” got TEN nominations, “across the branches” as Anne Thompson is wont to say on www.indiewire.com

Stu Van Airsdale, the Oscar’s Wizard of Wit, with his great, carefully calibrated Oscar Index, which week-in, week-out, is a delight to read AND to look forward to. You can see it every Wed. PM at www.movieline.com  Stu, or as he likes to style himself lately, STV, had it both ways with Meryl AND Viola tied for first place and also Jean Dujardin and George Clooney tied for first place. So STV REALLY had it all right this week. Except he didn’t have “The Help” anywhere near the top.

But then it’s the OSCAR Index, not the SAG index.

So now, we, like Harvey Weinstein & Co., is doing, turn our attention to the BAFTAS. Where Best Actress is really still up for grabs. Michelle is nominated there, too. I really felt sorry for her when she didn’t win. But if the Brits give Best Actress to her, when she’s up against Viola and Meryl and also Berenice Bejo, who they put in lead there….she could be a surprise win. “My Week with Marilyn” is a British film, after all.

And I don’t want to sound delusional, but I think Jean Dujardin did a sort kinda Stephen Holt Shout Out-imitation, when he kept exclaiming “Oh my god! Oh my god! Oh my god! Oh my god! OH MY GOD!” in ever-ascending levels of shrillness, that I’ve been noticed to do, in the past, and even recently in my very own interview with Jean and Berenice.

Jean, I’m honored by your, er, quoting of me. Merci, merci beaucoup. Et alors, maintenant Les Baftas et apres-la l’Oscars! And lets hope “The Artist” wins there, too.

Hazanavicius Wins DGA, Best Director Award for “The Artist”!

Last night in Hollywood, French director Michel Hazanaviscius continued “The Artist”s phenomenal winning streak by triumphing at the DGA. The Director’s Guild is usually the most accurate Oscar predictor, it’s members accurately picking the director and the film that will go on to also win The Oscar a month from now.

Congratulations to Michel Hazanaviscius and you can see my interview with him, shot in NYC in November, wherein, I, the Oscar Messenger tells him he is going to win all the awards in the book and the Oscar, too! At www.youtube.com/StephenHoltShow

Also my interviews with Jean Dujardin and Berenice Bejo, sailing towards 30,000 hits and co-star Penelope Ann Miller from “The Artist” are there, too!

Don’t forget to watch the SAG awards tonight, wherein I predict
“The Artist” to continue its’ extraordinary winning streak, which began when it debuted at the Cannes Film Festival in May.

The phrase “It’s been ‘The Artist’ since Cannes” has become an oft-repeated Twitter catch-phrase.

DGA & SAG this weekend! Hazanviscius & “Artist” continue to dominate!

This is a very exciting, award-filled weekend with the DGA(the Director’s Guild) announcing its’ winner Sat. nite & SAG (Screen Actor’s Guild) giving out its’ awards in Film and Television on Sunday. The DGA is not televised, and goes on for a loonnnng time. So it will be late on Sat. PST before we know for sure that Michel Hazanaviscius, the triple Oscar nominee for “The Artist,” will have won this most coveted award.

Why is this so prized? Because it is the CLOSEST to a sure-thing predictor of the Oscar for Best Director next month. And every pundit and Oscarologist in the book has lined up behind the brilliant Frenchman, who not only directed the Black and White and SILENT phenom, but also WROTE it. Yes, there was a script! And he also got a co-Oscar nomination from the very astute Editing Branch, because, yes, he co-edited “The Artist,” too! Talk about a triple threat!

He’s new to the US, but a very successful film director/writer in France. But we all know that being a newbie stateside didn’t hurt first time nominee British Director Tom Hooper at all last year. And it was when Hooper won the DGA last year that the whole Oscar race was turned upside/down and “The King’s Speech” started winning everything.

And look for that winning streak to continue at the SAGS, which is exactly what happened last year, too, for “The King’s Speech” won for Best Ensemble there, which is the SAGs equivalent of Best Picture.

Yes, I’m predicting that “The Artist” will win there, too. And what do these two films have in common? Well BOTH have the same producer! Harvey Weinstein! Who else? Who Oscar Goddess Sasha Stone has famously nicknamed the Oscar Whisperer www.awardsdaily.com

And yes, even Sasha is predicting “The Artist” to win here.

It sure looks like George Clooney is way out in front(instead of waaay over-exposed) for Best Actor for “The Descendants.” But “The Artist”s suave, charming, funny leading man Jean Dujardin is breathing down George’s neck. HEAVILY. And who’s his producer? Well, Harvey Weinstein! AGAIN!

And last year, it was Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech” in a walk. This Best Picture/Best Actor match-up could occur again this year. And who was his producer? Harvey Weinstein!

No wonder George seemed so rattled and wan when he won the Golden Globe last week. Last week? Was it ONLY a week ago???? Or was it two weeks? I’m living in an Oscar bubble, a time-warp where only Oscars( & the Oscarologists who love them) exist.

And Best Actress is not the done deal that Entertainment Weekly predicted soooo boldly on its’ cover of THE OSCAR RACE which was only three weeks ago. Or was it just two?

It’s changed its’ tune regarding “The Help” and Viola Davis. Oscar God David Karger of EW admitted on ew.com that he was now predicting Davis, but “only by a hair.” WHOA! What’s changed? And who’s in?

Well, Meryl Streep won the Golden Globe over Davis, and who is NOW on the cover of EW? Well, it’s got a celluloid strip running over the Oscar statuette with OCTAVIA SPENCER on it! *faints*recovers*

And Viola Davis is NOWHERE IN SIGHT!

At least not a picture of her. And also pictured is MELISSA McCARTHY of “Bridesmaids”!!!! WHOA! And every other picture is a man. So reading left to right, we have ROONEY MARA! In all her “Dragon Tattoo” regalia, Jean Dujardin in Black and White, M. McCarthy, Brad Pitt, Octavia Spencer and finally George Clooney at the tail end…

This Oscar issue cover banner,plus Karger’s “by a hair” statement ,ads up to him thinking that someone else is winning Best Actress. Perhaps Meryl Streep?

Or also perhaps Michelle Williams, who is no where in sight on the cover! And who is the producer of both Meryl’s and Michelle’s films? You guessed it. Harvey Weinstein! How can he lose? He’s in a win-win-win situation!

Meryl and Viola get a print “tease” as its’ called in journalism. If this can be called journalism. Which says something to the effect of “Meryl  v. Viola. Who will win ?” It also has the Best Actor race just reduced to “George v. Brad. Who Will Win?”

So in other words EW has REALLY back-pedaled on helping “The Help.” WTF? Well, it didn’t get the Oscar nods it really needed to remain competitive. No director, writer or editing. VERY important nods. Although THREE Best of the Actresses nods. Davis, Spencer and Jessica Chastain.

As has happened many, many times in Oscar history, two Supporting actresses from the same film, in this case, “The Help”, can split the vote, and it goes to someone else, like Berenice Bejo of “The Artist”. Who in real life is Mrs. Hazanaviscius, and also a big star in France.

I also feel, and Tom O’Neil at www.goldderby.com does, too, that they are going to want to give “The Artist” SOMEthing, besides Best Ensemble and either Jean Dujardin upsets in Best Actor or Berenice Bejo upsets in Best Supporting Actress. Or Mon Dieu! BOTH!

Me? I’m totally IN with that scenario. Though if pressed, I would say that Jean D. has a better shot. Octavia Spencer is seemingly unstoppable.

I said “seemingly”. Her ride could end at SAG. And so could Clooney’s.

He’s NEVER won a SAG award. That says something right there, doesn’t it?

And of course, Christopher Plummer will once again win Best Supporting Actor for “Beginners.” HE’S unstoppable! And he’s doing it WITHout Harvey Weinstein! His film is handled by Focus Features.

Also over at www.goldderby.com is an adorable video of the creative team of “The Artist” getting the news via television(it seems to be in Paris) of their Oscar nominations. It’s a beautiful, champagne-filled moment. Just like, well, just like “The Artist”! And IT’S unstoppable.

You can see my interviews with Jean, Berenice, Michel and Penelope Ann Miller, too, over at www.youtube.com/StephenHoltShow

Oscar to go E-lectronic ONLINE Voting! Chaos? Progress? The End?

With the shocking announcement the very day AFTER the Academy’s Big Reveal of their 2011 Nominations, AMPAS has sent out a statement saying that is it going digital at last =  the last bastion of postal snail mail, Oscar voting, going the way of the Do-Do. Scary stuff. Some Academy Members are not even ONLINE. Some don’t even OWN a computer, nor want to. I’m not kiddin’. You can’t make this stuff up!

But you know what the Do-Do said to Alice, don’t you? “Everyone has won, and ALL shall have prizes!”

Guess so.

Which I, a victim of technology, as much as Jean Dujardin’s character in “The Artist”, see this as just an INVITATION to the hacker-sphere to “Come ‘n’ git it!”

What if the Oscar results got hacked? And you know THEY WILL…

I’m a Voting Member of the Drama Desk and yes, we all have to vote e-lectronically, but there’s still the OPTION to mail your ballot in. But it seems everybody does use the Internet. Does this mean Theater Critics are hipper than the Hollywood Academy? It would seem so.

You can read the actual press releases themselves at www.deadlinehollywood.com and Steve Pond’s great www.thewrap.com.

This will also herald an earlier Oscar night. Maybe as early as late January or early February. The E-balloting would be instated to MOVE THINGS up, and make things FASTER, voting and tallying-wise.

But it’s progress. They can’t avoid it. But it’s going to wreak havoc on an already crowded awards-season year-end calendar, which OF COURSE, will cause the BFCA, The Golden Globes, this Sunday night’s SAG awards and yes, even the BAFTAs to move THEIR Awards extravaganzas up, too. OF COURSE! D’oh!

Which means that films will have to move up their unseemly December glut to November? Well, that could easily be done. This year’s, 2012, I mean, films will all have to just get finished earlier. Heard THAT Mr. Spielberg?

He’s got Daniel Day Lewis’ BIG OSCAR contender of next year”Lincoln” on the boil…He’ll just have to finish it faster. And he COULD do that. For this announcement to come out THIS EARLY, it’s letting those who are preparing next years extravaganzas to SPEED IT UP! It’s doable.

For example, “War Horse” was more than ready and being screened all over the country, but god forbid not in L.A. and New York, where we, the huddled media masses could see it.

And he DID get nominated. But not THAT much. (He didn’t get nominated for Best Director. Though it did get Best Picture. But like “Hugo” none of his actors got nominated.) He went from being a front-runner, to being, well, just a runner. It’s being held back til Christmas Day did diminish its’ Oscar chances.

You could argue that holding “Dragon Tattoo” back til the last-minute on Xmas day, also, hurt its Best Picture chances. But you could also argue that it never had any chance at BP (Best Picture, not Brad Pitt) to begin with. It’s a genre film to quote Anne Thompson of www.indiewire.com

Oscar Goddess Sasha Stone of www.awardsdaily.com  called it “re-arranging deck chairs on the ‘Titanic!’ “

Being accused of looking backwards this year, these pronunciamentos from AMPAS feel like Papal Nuncios. “No! You see! We aren’t looking backwards. We’re looking FORwards!”

But really, is it going to mean anything, except that voters will have to watch more films SOONER? Which means that Voters will inevitably watch LESS films than they even do now.

You better believe it! And that hurts the smaller fringe films. I’m pretty sure they didn’t even WATCH “We’ve Got to Talk About Kevin,” “Shame” and also probably, “Drive.”

I swear that Albert Brooks in “Drive” and Vanessa Redgrave in “Coriolanus” both lost out on being nominated this year on BOTH sides of the Atlantic, because voters just didn’t watch EITHER of their films.

They got turned off in the first 30-40 minutes by the violence and didn’t stay to see Brooks’ and Redgrave’s great, villainous performances, which really kicked in LATER in both films.

AMPAS voters, and probably SAG voters, too, certainly are just OVERWHELMED by the amount of films they have to watch on their DVD players, and that is the way most of them do see these films. The super 3d of “Hugo” loses a lot in 2D on anything but the most sophisticated home players. for instance.

Whereas films with a smaller TV-friendly aspect ratio, like “The Artist” look even BETTER! “The Descendants” would gain on the small screen, too. AND “The Help” AND “Midnight in Paris.”

This will make late summer/early Fall Film Festivals Toronto,Montreal, Venice, New York, even MORE important than they’ve always been.

Because now people like Jason Reitman, who held his “Young Adult,” back from TIFF & NYFF, lived to see his film wither and die outside the Festival circuit.  And now he’ll have to go running back to Toronto, where OF COURSE, they’ll take him back. Like the prodigal son that he is, if only for a nano-seceond. In this scenario, his film of LAST year “Up In the Air” which was accused of “peaking too early” would never have had the chance for that to happen to it. There would’ve been NO TIME! Ditto “The Joy of Typing.”

It will mean that film critics like myself will have VERY busy Novembers instead of Decembers.

And what WILL Harvey Weinstein do?

Well, since he’s always busy ANYway, this new roundelay of “change” may make things even EASIER for him. Certainly more refreshing.

But come what may, this is what is on the way, dear readers, dear cineastes. Change! The Computers are taking over EVERYTHING!

Oscar Nominations FINALLY Announced! Quick Reactions!

So there they are, surprising one, surprising all, even me. That’s right, dear readers, dear cineastes, the Oscar Nominations for 2011 have finally been announced, and yes, I did wake up VERY early to get the news! And the shocks! The delightful shocks, like for instance, predicting Best Actress completely accurately. Meryl, Michelle, Viola, Glenn, and ROONEY MARA!

She “knocked out” Tilda Swinton, who was one of the SAG five nominees for Best Actress this year. Her film”We’ve Got to Talk About Kevin” is something the Academy clearly DIDN’T want to talk about. The mother of a school shooter is clearly now outside their “wheelhouse.”

As is Michael Fassbender full frontal onslaught and yes, his urinating, while nude, onscreen in “Shame.” I KNEW that they would not like to nominate THAT! But yes, they DID nominate Damien Bichir, which I am happy to say, I predicted.

The noble Mexican illegal immigrant/gardener is definately a heroic figure to the Academy, as Bichir, a great actor in any language, tries his best to save his teenage son from gang-life in today’s L.A.

I’m also happy to report that Gary Oldman also POPPED UP with no American precursors WHATSOVER in Best Actor for “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” and it’s about time this great British Actor FINALLY got his first nomination!

This is probably attributable to the supposedly large British voting bloc within the Academy. TTSS got the most BAFTA nods of any film this year over across The Pond. And Oldman certainly richly deserves this for his astounding decades-long body of work. And you can see my interview with him over at my You Tube channel www.youtube.com/StephenHoltShow

Who he “knocked out” of the Best Actor face, one of the SAG Five men, was Leonardo Di Caprio for “J.Edgar” which I just totally attribute to homophobia on the part of the Academy which not so long ago denied Best Picture to “Brokeback Mountain” and gave it instead to the OK “Crash.” The worst moment in Oscar history. For me, anyway.

So out of the ten possible choices in my Oscar Nomination Predictions, Leo was the only one I got wrong. To leave out such a big star as Leo is in a Clint Eastwood-directed movie, I find shocking, SHOCKING! But Gary Oldman is a more than worthy choice, and so is Damien Bichir. Congratulations to them both!

However, I underestimataed the Academy’s enthusiasm for their #1 voting change. Because I thought it would be eight and NINE got in. Again, I got one wrong. “My Week with Marilyn” which is STILL MY OWN PERSONAL #1 movie of the year, although it did get Acting nods for the extraordinary performances of Michelle Williams as Marilyn Monroe and Kenneth Branagh in Supporting Actor, for his terrific turn as Sir Laurence Olivier.

You can see alllll the nominations listed at www.awardsdaily.com

“Hugo” to MY great shock bested “The Artist” in the number of nominations it got. 11 to “The Artist”s ten. Both got nominated for Best Picture and Best Director, which would be Martin Scorcese for “Hugo” and Michel Hazanaviscius for “The Artist”.

It was Jennifer Lawrence’s finest acting moment when she pronounced Michel H.s name correctly. Hah-zana-VIZ-use, phonetically. Accent on the VIZ.

“The Artist” also was nominated for Best Actor, Jean Dujardin, Best Original Screenplay, Best Supporting Actress – Berenice Bejo, Best Score – Ludovic Bource who was won at the BFCA AND the Golden Globes, Best Cinematography, Best Costumes, Best Editing and Best Art Direction.

“Hugo” scored mainly in the technical categories or “below-the-line” as they’re called in industry parlance, but no acting categories whatsoever, and may be the first Best Picture nominee with the most votes to ever not have ANY actors nominated at all. Not a good sign.

Historically, the film with the most nominations USUALLY wins, but not always. But “The Artist” is the clear favorite here.

Steven Spielberg saw his “War Horse” surprise in Best Picture, but also saw no actors from his film get in, and he himself didn’t either for Best Director.

Best Director including Scorcese and Hazanviscius as I said, and also Woody Allen for “Midnight in Paris” and Alexander Payne for “The Descendants.” The surprise Best Director in the Fifth slot was Terence Malick for the controversial “Tree of Life” which also got nominated for Best Picture!

Best Actor nominee for “Moneyball” Brad Pitt is in “Tree of Life” too, don’t forget, and so is The Girl of The Year Jessica Chastain. Both arguably giving better performances than they did with what they were nominated for “Moneyball” and Chastain in “The Help”, OK, but not great.

I think “The Artist” is still way out front for Best Picture. And I still think BOTH Jean Dujardin and Michelle Williams could upset.

“The Iron Lady” only got two nominations. For Meryl’s great lead performance and for Best Make-Up, which it probably will win.

Glenn Close’s passion project of 30 years “Albert Nobbs” got three nods. For Close, Supporting Actress Janet McTeer and again, Best Make-Up.

And the biggest surprise of all is the Ninth BP nominee, “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close!” And Max Von Sydow for Best Supporting Actor in a wordless mute role in the 9/11 drama.

Oscar Nomination Predictions 2011

Best Picture

The Artist

The Descendants

Midnight in Paris

Hugo

The Help

The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Moneyball

My Week With Marilyn

In a year where there could be as little as five and as many as 10 Best Pictures, I’m going to split the difference and say 8.

Best Actor

JEAN DU JARDIN “The Artist”

GEORGE CLOONEY “The Descendants”

BRAD PITT “Moneyball”

LEONARDO DI CAPRIO “J.Edgar”

DAMIAN BECHIR “A Better Life”

I think the S.W.O.R.M. the Straight White Old Rich Men who are let’s face it, the majority of the AMPAS voters are not gonna be OK with Michael Fassbender’s full frontal EXTENSIVE nudity through “Shame”, but WILL be OK with Mexican actor Damien Bichir’s heart-wrenching portryal of a good father/gardener working in the Palm Trees of L.A.

Best Actress

MICHELLE WILLIAMS “My Week With Marilyn”

MERYL STREEP “The Iron Lady”

GLENN CLOSE “Albert Nobbs”

VIOLA DAVIS “The Help”

ROONEY MARA “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”

I think that late opener “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” which is nearing the $100 million mark domestic is going to be on a lot of voters’ minds. And this will be a kind of pay back to David Fincher & crew for NOT winning last year and the biggest beneficiary of this will be leading actress Rooney Mara, for her bravura turn as Lisbeth Salander. And the person she’ll knock out is not the revered Glenn Close, who has been struggling to get “Albert Nobbs” made for over 20 years, or more, but Tilda Swinton, who HAS an Oscar already.

Best Suporting Actor

CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER “Beginners”

KENNETH BRANAGH “My Week with Marilyn”

ARMIE HAMMER “J.Edgar”

COREY STOLL “Midnight in Paris”

JONAH HILL “Moneyball”

This is the hardest category to predict this year with the prospective nominees jumping all over the place, like Mexican Jumping Beans throughout the precursor awards. And no, Damien Bichir is NOT in this category. I think SAG nominee Armie Hammer will pop up here as he did in SAG, and knock out Albert Brooks who was snubbed by SAG AND BAFTA. And also they’re going to nominate SOMEBODY from “Midnight in Paris” besides Woody and Corey Stoll’s Ernest Hemingway made the strongest impression in that gigantic ensemble.

I hate to say it, but I’m putting Jonah Hill in because he was in the movie, “Moneyball” that the most voters will probably have seen and because by the same token they WON’T have watched Nick Nolte in “Warriors.”

Best Supporting Actress

VANESSA REDGRAVE “Coriolanus”

OCTAVIA SPENCER “The Help”

JESSICA CHASTAIN “The Help”

BERENICE BEJO “The Artist”

JANET McTEER “Albert Nobbs”

I think Vanessa Redgrave’s towering performance in “Coriolanus” will FINALLY turn up here, as it hasn’t so far anywhere else. The Harvey factor is in play here and yes, it’s a Weinstein Co. movie. As is “The Artist” as is “The Iron Lady” as is “My Week with Marilyn.”

Best Director

Michel Hazanaviscius “The Artist”

Alexander Payne “The Descendants”

Martin Scorcese “Hugo”

Woody Allen “Midnight in Paris”

David Fincher “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”

I think this will match the DGA nominees(the Directors’ Guild) five for five.

And on Tuesday morning we’ll see. I predict the steamroller of “The Artist” will continue with its’ getting the most nominations of any other film. And for a 90 min. Black and White SILENT film made for only $12million, it’s a phenomenal run that is STILL just getting started!

“The Artist” Wins the PGA! The Producer’s Guild Award!!!!

“The Artist” just won the PGA!!!

The Producer’s Guild Award!!!

They only give out one award. For Best Picture!

Congratulations to everyone involved with this magical film! And now on to the Oscar nominations on Tuesday morning!

For those of you who don’t know or don’t remember, this was the award that surprised everyone last year when “The King’s Speech” won when “The Joy of Typing” was winning everything else so far. But this year there’s an across-the-board agreement on the beautiful Black and White silent film “The Artist.”

I predict it will win more Oscar nominations than any other film this year and will win Best Picture, too.

Felicitations a tous!

And if you want to see stars Jean Dujardin, Berenice Bejo and Penelope Anne Miller and director Michel Hazanaviscius, you can see them at www.youtube.com/StephenHoltShow

 

“The Artist” Jean Dujardin & Hazanaviscius win London Film Critics!

Well, the accolades just keep piling up for “The Artist”! The London Film Critics Circle(not to be confused with BAFTA!) just named “The Artist” as Best Picture of the Year and Best Actor Jean Dujardin for “The Artist.” Michel Hazanviscius was named Best Director and Meryl Streep tied with Anne Paquin of the barely distributed “Margaret” for Best Actress!

Kenneth Branagh won Best Supporting Actor for “My Week with Marilyn” and Sareh Bayat of “A Separation” won Best Supporting Actress for the Iranian Film “A Separation” which keeps piling up the kudos.

Now THAT would be a real surprise and a possible game changer if Bayat ended up in Best Supporting, out of nowhere, but in an acclaimed film, which is probably going to win “Best Foreign Film” like it did at the Globes and the Broadcast Film Critics.

You can read all about it at www.indiewire.com

And that one more BIG Best Actor Award for the charming Dujardin. Could this pre-sage his winning BAFTA, too? Stay tuned!

Oscar God Dave Karger of EW speaks out!

Well, my own personal choice for Oscar God, Dave Karger, is speaking out all over the place. He’s turning up on www.goldderby.com chatting with Tom O’Neil about Best Picture and Director and he’s on a podcast at the Hollywood Reporter talking about A LOT of things Oscar with Scott Feinberg www.thehollywoodreporter.com

Thx to poster Sia for sending me their podcast which was very interesting. Until it kept disconnecting itself. Grrr…but I got most of it. It was fascinating.

OGDave, ever polite, to both Feinberg and O’Neil and always measured in his responses, has to, in the back of everything, justify that OUTrageous gaffe of a cover Oscar Race issue of EW, a couple of weeks back, with George Clooney and Viola Davis looking and acting like they already won! What nerve! And how precipitous if not downright presumptive of them both, and of  course, EW, too. And of course, comes the Globes this past Sunday and Meryl Streep wins! George does, too, but ouch! For Viola losing, and making that cover invalid! Just, OUCH!

I think neither of them are going to win. George already has an Oscar and even O’Neil in ANOTHER Skype-like podcast(yes, with pictures) admits that he thought Le Clooney’s speech was more like Le Clown-ey. “Missed opportunities! Missed opportunities!” O’Neil said that also about presumptive Supp. Actress winner Octavia Spencer. “It was a list! It was just a LIST” bemoaned Our Tom. And of course, he’s right.

Tom thinks like I do that Michelle Williams is the upset winner and Dave Karger, in his podcast with Scott Feinberg even admitted that “in the case of a close vote, there can be a split, and a third party gets through.” He was saying this to Feinberg in relation to Viola Davis winning the BFCA and Meryl winning, the much more highly viewed Golden Globes, on NBC.

Our Dave was sweating a little there, I thought. And it’s all very interesting, because these men, live and breathe Oscar, well, just like you and me, dear readers, dear cineastes.

Tom O’Neil created this whole Internet Oscar game we are all now so invested in. And Dave Karger is certainly one of the best. Dave and I and also, possibly, Anne Thompson www.indiewire.com

last year were the only ones standing by “The King’s Speech” and our conviction that is was going to win and win BIG was not the popular choice at this time last year.

Tom, and Scott both ask Dave if he thinks that “The Artist” is still way out in front, and Dave says “Yes, it is.” End of story. It’s a “Slumdog Millionaire” slam dunk. But Dave hedges to both Tom and Scott that he doesn’t think it’s going to “sweep the guilds like ‘The King’s Speech’ did last year, where it won everything.”

He’s talking about the upcoming PGA, which is when SUDDENLY TKS started winning everything. That was such an exciting day for me!The PGA is the Producer’s Guild and they announce this Sunday, I think.

I was fortunate enough to have gotten to Colin Firth AND Tom Hooper FIRST at the Toronto Film Festival  Sept. 2010, and told them the Oscar news as I saw it,  which is when Tom named me “The Oscar Messenger,” and the name, as you all know stuck, and I was right! He won! And so did “The King’s Speech!”

And yes, I agree with Dave that “The Artist” is going to win Best Picture, and he doesn’t really see anything stopping it, unless “Tate Taylor(“The Help”) gets a Best Director nomination,” which would be coming from the VERY exclusive Director’s Branch of the Academy. I don’t see that happening.

Tom brings up the chance that Woody Allen’s “Midnight in Paris” could upset everything, and Dave literally pooh-poohs that onscreen, in the politest way possible, of course. Dave is nothing if not a gentleman.

When pressed by Scott Feinberg about Supporting Actor, he gets Dave to admit “it’s all over the map,” (except for Christopher Plummer winning) which is what I posted yesterday. Were they reading my blog? I hope so. Let it also be said that despite our violent dispute over Melissa Leo last year, Scott was an always agreeable and friendly presence on the awards circuit. And so far he’s the only one who has been nice enough to link to this blog. Again, thank you, Scott, for that.

But now with his new job at The Hollywood Reporter as THEIR Oscar guy with “The Race” and “Feinberg and Friends,” which is where the podcast I’m speaking of was located, he’s like a steam roller in his enthusiasm and energy and STATISTICS about the Oscar race. He’s very young, not long out of college, if truth be told, and so last year OF COURSE he was going to side with “The Joy of Typing.” It was about the Internet! Of course, it was going to win!

And I always countered with the fact that a large portion of Academy are barely online. Hence their WTF reaction to it.

The stuttering King of England, now THAT they could understand!

Tom keeps Dave and his conversation limited to Best Picture and Best Director and will probably cover the other categories before the Nomination Morning of Tues. Jan. 24.  But I thought one of the most interesting observations of Dave’s was to Tom, about Best Director, that Martin Scorcese won too recently (for “The Departed”) to win again for “Hugo” as he did on Sunday at the Globes.

And Dave does emphasize that the Broadcast Film Critics AND the Globes’ HFPA have NOTHING to do with the Academy, as I’ve been saying all along. They are PRESS. And NONE of those people are Academy Members.

Compassionate Dave seems to listen to all  the members of the Academy that he can. Whereas I think Scott, because he’s so young himself, listens to people his own age. Most of whom are NOT members of AMPAS, and if they are they are in the minority.

I myself here in NYC do not sense any kind of overwhelming love for “The Help” which Scott and Dave(that cover again) and to a lesser extent Tom said they feel ~ out in L.A. It’s a different world out there, granted. But here, if I had to say anything could surprise “The Artist”, it’s “Midnight in Paris.” I keep hearing how much everyone LOVES it here. And I hear that LOVE expressed about “The Artist,” too.

And one of the most interesting things Dave says about “The Bridesmaid” topic(it keeps turning up like the proverbial bad penny) is that he thinks Kristen Wiig is going to get a screenplay nomination and that “If anyone can upset Octavia Spencer in Supporting Actress, it’s Melissa McCarthy”!!!! From “Bridesmaids”!!!

I don’t think, and Stu Van Airsdale of www.movieline.com thinks that she’s even going to get nominated.

And on another note, Glenn Close had an hour-long interview about her career on PBS. And when they showed a clip of her as Norma Desmond in Andrew Lloyd Webber’s “Sunset Boulevard”, it just took my breathe away at how wonderful she was in was probably her finest hour. Now if only they’d make THAT into a movie! She won the Tony for that too, in a walk, and she deserved it.

As Oscar Gets Nearer & Nearer, Supporting gets more Cloudy, Not Clearer

With the Oscar Nominations getting nearer and hearer, next Tues, less than a week now, some things are getting more and more cloudy, not clearer. We seem to THINK we know who the winners are going to be(and maybe except for Best Actress) everybody may be right. Or ARE they?

Christopher Plummer is going to win Best Supporting Actor. We’ve know this since May. But who is going to be nominated alongside him? And does it really matter? Well, it matters to those of us who are Oscar-obsessed, which means YOU since you’re reading this. And moi, aussi, of course.

Yes, to Kenneth Branagh as Sir Laurence Olivier in “My Week With Marilyn.” BUT everybody else in that category is a maybe, and this is one of the several main categories where there are going to be surprises. In the nominations. Not the winners. Or maybe the nominations will REALLY shake things up!

The suspense is killing me!

Will Jonah Hill of “Moneyball” get nominated for a mediocre performance at best? Is THAT an Academy Nomination?An “Academy Performance” No, it’s just a very big part( who is standing next to Brad Pitt) and played by an actor who we thought couldn’t do that. Even as meagerly as he did it…

Mark Harris of www.grantland.com has done a marvelous job of parsing all this as of course the great Stu Vanairsdale at www.movieline.com They both are essential reading at this point.

Mark Harris brings up the interesting “Norbit” plot-line. Arguably it was the release of “Norbit” a critically reviled low comedy right in the middle of Oscar voting that killed Eddie Murphy’s win for Supp. Actor for “Dreamgirls”. But HE was already nominated when this happened. Jonah Hill has not even been nominated YET and “Norbit”-like bomb “The Sitter” in which he stars, is playing at a theater near YOU.

Could that knock him out of contention? It could.

So could the lack of interest in “Warrior” knock Nick Nolte out in the prize-fight movie that critics raved about but no one went to see. Will the Academy Voters, so busy at this time of year, have the time to watch “Warrior” ONLY for a Supp. Male Performance possibility? Nobody’s claiming he will win this.

They’ll PROBABLY watch “Drive”. But with no SAG nomination for Albert Brooks, another comedian-turned-actor this season, and now, SHOCKINGLY no BAFTA nomination, will Brooks get left out too? Are Brooks and Jonah Hill too “samey” as they used to say in England.

WHO could replace them? Well, Armie Hammer who DID get a SAG nod for his moving turnas Leonard DiCaprio long-term lover in “J.Edgar” They will have watched “J.Edgar” Whether they like it or not is another question. ME? I LOVED it. It was on my Ten Best List.  As was “Drive” come to think of it.

Armie could benefit from “J.Edgar”s seeming lack of support in other major categories, though I do think “J.Edgar” COULD surprise,too. It’s Clint after all. Clint Eastwood. And they LOVE Clint.

So surely could Corey Stoll as Ernest Hemingway in “Midnight in Paris” Stoll’s beautiful, nuanced, scary performance in a film that is very likely going to be nominated for Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay (it’s been winning that award all over the place, BFCA, Golden Globes, etc) AND Best Director, so surely could not this momentum sweep in at least ONE actor in “Midnight in Paris” gigantic, superb ensemble?

Jeff Wells, whose site www.hollywood-elsewhere.com is essential reading, too, has been going on and on about Stoll’s excellence, and how he wasn’t even AT the Golden Globes. Woody was a guaranteed no-show. They had room for Corey. But no. They didn’t.

I’m thinking that they Academy might, however. Knowing Stoll’s work for YEARS on the NY stage, I know what  a powerful, deep acting talent he has. Maybe the Academy will sense that, too. And the NEW YORK-based Academy Members who attend the theater regularly(and they all do) will know Stoll’s work too.

SOME member of the cast of “Midnight in Paris” should be honored. And if it’s anyone it’s him.

Then there’s the problem of “Extremely Loud, etc. etc.” ELAIC and the mute Max Von Sydow. He could sneak in here, too. I was at an Academy screening and he got a terrific amount of applause at the end credits when his name came up. The NY  audience I saw it with also, seemed to like it. Or liked some of it. The subject, 9/11, was not something most of these people wanted to see re-visited.

But who got the most thunderous applause for that film? Thomas Horn, the young boy who plays the lead. Now THAT would be a big surprise. And the Academy has a history of honoring children in leads in Supporting. See Hailee Steinfeld last year…And Horn surprised by winning “Best Young Actor” at the Critics Choice Awards(the BFCA) just last week.

And then there’s the always nominatable Sir Ben Kingsley in the much-liked “Hugo.”

THREE surprises in the Supp. Acting category nominations? Impossible you say. But this has been a very difficult year to predict. In some categories, and this is one of them.

And the Supporting Actress category would be blown wide open by the entrance of Vanessa Redgrave for “Coriolanus” and also, incredible as it may sound, Dame Judi Dench as Dame Sybil Thorndike in “My Week with Marilyn.” Yes, and Dame Judi got a BAFTA nod. Vanessa did not. But the PERFORMANCE!!! TOWERING!!! And Degree of Difficulty ~ Shakespeare.

Vanessa has been nominated for NO precursor awards so far.NO-thing. Nada.Zilda. But if she did she would land like a bomb exploding all expectations so far. And if BOTH she and Dame Judi made it in. Impossible, you say? But both Redgrave and Dench are in WEINSTEIN CO. movies.

I rest my case.

More about the other categories soon