a.k.a. "The Oscar Messenger"

This is a season of shocks! The unlikely “The Shape of Water” just won Best Picture from the Producers Guild of America! And it isn’t even nominated for the SAG Ensemble Award! So it can’t win that tomorrow night at the SAGS! This Awards season is so all over the place! It’s crazy! NEVER thought the PGA would go for this film, though I myself loved it! This totally solidifies Guillermo del Toro’s winning Best Director! Which happened at both the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice! Best Picture went to “Shape” at the Critics! What will win the SAGs?I can’t ever see AMPAS going for this aquatic love affair however…They, who give out the Oscars. Well, it’s suspenseful, I’ll say that much!

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One of the strangest things of the ongoing awards season 2018, to me, anyway, was how on Wednesday last at the Critics Choice Awards front-running favorite “Lady Bird” was completely shut out of the many, many categories it was nominated for. Like Best Comedy, Best Actress in a Comedy. Both those awards at the beginning of the evening went to, of all things, dark horse, last-minute entry “I, Tonya.” Yep. It won both those awards.Australian actress and reigning blonde sex-pot (“The Big Short”, “The Suicide Squad”, “The Wolf of Wall Street”) got Best Actress in a Comedy for Margot Robbie. And Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird herself, was snubbed, and so was the supposed front-running movie, Greta Gerwig’s first film.”Lady Bird.” which everybody thought had it in the bag.

Yes, Gerwig did not win Best Director, nor did Laurie Metcalf as Lady Bird’s put-upon-Mom, who was thought to be a shoo-in for Best Supporting Actress all season. At the last minute beloved TV vet Allison Janney swept in on a golden broom-stick and won both the Golden Globe Award in that category. 

La Vona, Tonya Harding’s rather over-the-top. horror show of a Mom, won the gold for the much-liked Janney’s villain of a Mom, who slaps and actually stabs her own daughter in the course of trying to get her ungrateful daughter into the Olympics.

It seemed like some kind of improbable nightmare that the cartoonish, horrifying Janney would win AGAIN at the Critics Choice Awards later in the week, Trouncing Metcalf AGAIN. And leaving supposedly beloved front-runner “Lady Bird” completely out in the cold with no wins at all.

Could that happen AGAIN at the SAG awards tomorrow night? If Frances McDormand wins Best Actress for “Three Billboards Outside Redding Missouri” as she’s expected to and Janney pulls her LaVona hat-trick again, and some other film wins Best Ensemble(“Get Out,” or the surging “Three Billboards”), pretty Lady Bird just might get shut out AGAIN just like at the Critic’s Choice. It’s a possibility, and would mean that McDormand and Janney have the actress roles at the Oscars all sewn up.

“Lady Bird” would then HAVE to win Best Picture. The evil tabloid mess of “I, Tonya” may have been though by some voters to be their cup of poison rather than Greta Gerwig’s sweet child-hood autobiography. We’ll soon see.

My SAG 2018 Predictions

After much consideration, and I’m trying to be as simple as I can be, I think the key to this year’s SAG Awards predictions is as plain as the nose on my face. Or as plain as the nose on anyone’s face in Ebbing,Missouri. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” is going to sweep and win all four of the categories it’s nominated for. The overwhelming performance of an angry, but not tear-stained, grieving mother Mildred will win Frances McDormand her second SAG award. The fierceness of her unforgiving fury will translate into universal acclaim  as she has already received., at 60, the Golden Globe for Best Actress Drama and the same at the Critics’ Choice Awards.And her co-star Sam Rockwell, as the confused small-town policeman, Deputy Dixon, who tries to help her solve the  seemingly unsolvable mystery of her daughter’s violent rape and death, will precede McDormand to the podium and win Best Supporting Actor. Both of them bumping into each other on their way to the Oscars.

And two of the a-fore-seen winners of the other two awards,  Gary Oldman as the definitive Winston Churchill in “The Darkest Hour” (Best Actor) and Allison Janney as Tonya Harding’s frightening mother in the surging “I, Tonya.” (Best Supporting Actress), both will win again.

The SAGS only give out few awards to film. Mostly, it’s television that is being awarded. And usually at the start of the show BANG! They announce one of the two  Supporting Awards. So tune in on time at 8pm tomorrow night at TNT and TBS (Check your local listings.) Or you might miss Sam winning! Hopefully, I’ll survive the suspense until Sunday night when once again, I will be live-blogging.

Their fourth nomination being the supposedly predictive Best Ensemble award. That’s the only one of “Three Billboards” four nominations that I’m a little bit shaky about. But I think it’s their night. They might not win the Oscar, but they’ll win this. It’s an actor’s actor movie. And the SAGs, lest me forget, are actors voting on actors. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing” is co–starring some of the greatest actors of our time. Woody Harrleson, Peter Dinklage, John Hawkes, Lucas Hedges are among the long list of its’ sterling ensemble.

“The Shape of Water” can’t win because it wasn’t nominated.

It could easily go to one of the other films. I would automatically say “Lady Bird,” but that got shut out surprisingly at the Critics last week! What? What? But I’ll put my pen down for the night, and just wish all of them good luck on Sunday!

“I, Tonya” is Australian actress Margot Robbie’s attempt at going for the gold, and trying to win an Oscar. She may have succeeded in getting herself a nomination the week after this on January 23. But who she’s more seriously pulled into Awards contention and the quite possibly the win, is her co-star Allison Janney, everyone’s favorite go-to actress, as her hateful mother LaVona.

And Janney has just astoundingly won TWO major awards, the Golden Globe and also the Critics’ Choice Award for Best Supporting Actress for her horrifying turn as the Wicked Witch of the Ice Rink with a parakeet on her shoulder.

Up until this past week, Laurie Metcalf had been predicted to be winning those awards, and suddenly the Golden Globes just turned this particular race, Best Supporting Actress upside-down. Just as Sam Rockwell did with Best Supporting Actor.

I found “I, Tonya” such a distasteful croc of lies, that I’ll concentrate on Ms. Janney’s chances, shall I?

Remembering all too vividly the events this loathsome episode that will forever cloud the history of figure skating, I just was not ready to listen to Tonya Harding’s side of the story. She had some foul person attack champion Nancy Kerrigan by hitting her in the shin with a mettle rod, thus effectively side-lining her and allowing the rabbity Harding to shine abd get onto the Olympic ice skating team. It was a horrifying incident and you just hated Harding for it.

Well, there’s more to the story, as it turns out. Or sort of turns out. If Harding is to be believed, which I for one, can’t. Seems that her husband/ ex-husband/ boyfriend/ whatever executed this hateful scheme .Sebastian Stan as Jeff Gilhooley is wonderfully scummy, but I didn’t believe a word out of his mouth. Both he and Robbie play the untruths they have to spout believably, which must be considered a great feat of acting on both their parts. But Robbie will be the one who wins  a nomination for producing this nauseating sea of lies. Which brings me to Allison Janney and why she keeps winning Best Supporting Actress Awards this season.

She’s got her own TV series, which she stars in every week on CBS, “Mom”. She won many, many Emmys for her yeoman multi-season run on “West Wing.” And so she is extremely familiar to viewers, and voters, who know she is NOTHING like LaVona , the very worst mother ever seen depicted as a character, reel or unreal on screen.

Laurie Metcalf’s compassionate, though beleaguered Mom on “Lady Bird” is VERY believable. She does not physically abuse her wayward daughter. But Lavona constantly smacks Tonya around and even throws a knife at her, which penetrates Tonya’s upper arm. So LoVona’ s bad behavior, makes “I, Tonya” believable and sympathetic, but only somewhat. This is a sports movie about child abuse. It’s going to seem very timely with the winter Olympics coming up.

Janney’s physical transformation is key here. She uglies up to the nth degree, and many think that’s acting, but  I don’t. However, Janney is so skilled an actress, you buy it. She’s also a comic, though horrible, relief from the incessant whining and bitch-slapping of her irritating daughter.

And I think voters are going to feel that Janney is the one to vote for, and surprisingly they say “I, Tonya” is surging right now. She’s a comfortable way in. It’s clearly a performance of someone we don’t like, by someone we do like.

And there is ONE scene in a diner, where else? Where LaVona tries to plead HER case as a mother to her destructive daughter, who hates her. And still does to this day. Janney as LaVona says that she went out and worked and gave everything to her daughter. “I didn’t stay home as bake brown betties all day.” Janney had me at that moment. And clearly she had the voters , too. So far.

Talk about timing! As the NBC promos all night were announcing before the show came on at 11:30 pm, that “red-hot Sam Rockwell” was hosting tonight’s show. Fresh off his surprise win at the Golden Globes on Sunday night, his garnering their Best Supporting Actor Award for “Three Billboards Outside Redding Missouri” was mentioned to maximum effect.

His best segment was his Opening Monologue which turned into a song and dance number ( yes, he can do both, and he’s a terrific dancer, too ) about how his award this week,( and by implication, his double win at the Critics Choice Award on Thursday night )  he sang how he’s  now gone from “A character actor to a leading man.” And this number hit just the right note of self-satire, and also  SNL’s clear championing of him in this happy moment of transition. He’ll no doubt be back there to host many, many more shows. And hooray for that!

I knew audiences knew he could play anything, act anything, and in “Three Billboards” he practically does.

But I’m sure he surprised many by singing and dancing and busting a move, as they say. Grabbing a top hat and cane and tapping off the tiny SNL stage into the audience, down the aisle and into the off-stage areas of NBC hallways, who have the room for all this action.

It concluded with him jumping on a camera crane and being hoisted aloft above the cheering, delighted crowd, as literally we all saw his star rising before us. It’s like SNL was determined to hand him an Oscar onstage. Which, by setting him up this way on the show as the host who was about to become a star, he BECAME a star literally right before our eyes. Bravo! Well done by all!

And good luck on next Sunday, Jan.21 at the SAG Awards where he again is up for his extraordinary performance in this extraordinary film.

Sam Rockwell 2

“Three Billboards” is also up for Best Ensemble and so he could actually win TWO SAG awards a week from Sunday night. It’s feeling like a coronation and I think it is.

I guess the members of the Broadcast Film Critics did NOT like Anything about supposed Oscar front-runner “Lady Bird .” It got NOTHING from their award show which went out tonight on the CW. It only took two hours. They didn’t announce many of their silly, superfluous categories on air. But they still were there. As you can see by the list below. Thanks to http://www.awardsdaily.com

Next up, the SAG Awards on Sunday night. I’ll be Live-Blogging those awards, too, which are considered more seriously as they actually voted on by members of a for-real industry guild, the Screen Actors Guild.

WINNERS OF THE 23RD ANNUAL CRITICS’ CHOICE AWARDS

FILM:
BEST PICTURE – “The Shape of Water”

BEST ACTOR – Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”

BEST ACTRESS – Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS – Brooklynn Prince, “The Florida Project”

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE – “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

BEST DIRECTOR – Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – Jordan Peele, “Get Out”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – James Ivory, “Call Me By Your Name”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – Roger Deakins, “Blade Runner 2049”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN – Paul Denham Austerberry, Shane Vieau, Jeff Melvin, “The Shape of Water”

BEST EDITING (TIE) – Paul Machliss, Jonathan Amos, “Baby Driver”

BEST EDITING (TIE) – Lee Smith, “Dunkirk”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN – Mark Bridges, “Phantom Thread”

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP – “Darkest Hour”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS – “War for the Planet of the Apes”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE – “Coco”

BEST ACTION MOVIE – “Wonder Woman”

BEST COMEDY – “The Big Sick”

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY – James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY – Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”

BEST SCI-FI OR HORROR MOVIE – “Get Out”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – “In The Fade”

BEST SONG – “Remember Me” from “Coco”

BEST SCORE – Alexandre Desplat, “The Shape of Water”WINNERS OF THE 23RD ANNUAL CRITICS’ CHOICE AWARDS

FILM:
BEST PICTURE – “The Shape of Water”

BEST ACTOR – Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”

BEST ACTRESS – Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS – Brooklynn Prince, “The Florida Project”

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE – “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

BEST DIRECTOR – Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – Jordan Peele, “Get Out”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – James Ivory, “Call Me By Your Name”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – Roger Deakins, “Blade Runner 2049”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN – Paul Denham Austerberry, Shane Vieau, Jeff Melvin, “The Shape of Water”

BEST EDITING (TIE) – Paul Machliss, Jonathan Amos, “Baby Driver”

BEST EDITING (TIE) – Lee Smith, “Dunkirk”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN – Mark Bridges, “Phantom Thread”

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP – “Darkest Hour”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS – “War for the Planet of the Apes”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE – “Coco”

BEST ACTION MOVIE – “Wonder Woman”

BEST COMEDY – “The Big Sick”

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY – James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY – Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”

BEST SCI-FI OR HORROR MOVIE – “Get Out”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – “In The Fade”

BEST SONG – “Remember Me” from “Coco”

BEST SCORE – Alexandre Desplat, “The Shape of Water”

Once again duplicating Sunday nights Golden Globes, Guillermo del Toro wins Best Director, “Big Little Lies” wins its TV categories, and so does “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.”

Kumail Nanjiani introduces this section reminding us that there was ONE difference from the GGs. His sweet, smart film “The Big Sick” won Best Comedy over “Lady Bird.” He didn’t phrase it like that, however, and graciously thanked the Critics. Nobody knows how hard we work.

Gary Oldman once again wins Best Actor for “Darkest Hour” for playing Winston Churchill. He slavishly thanks his director Joe Wright , who he forgot on Sunday night.

Frances McDormand ONCE AGAIN wins Best Actress in a Drama and she, like co-star Sam Rockwell, is NOT there to accept her award. But for sure, she’ll be there on Sunday night for the SAGs. You better believe it. They both will.Sam RockwellThey  are quickly becoming their own Awards juggernaut.

Three Bill Boards 10

So no, not everybody shows up for this show. How embarrassing.“Shape of Water” wins Best Film! Now THAT’S different. They all look shocked. They were  all there and they all piled onstage. Sally Hawkins and Octavia Spenser, too.

Guillermo  del Toro speaks and says “If You don’t work with these incredible women, Sally! Octavia! You don’t know what you’re missing!”

So this gives del Toro  a huge lift for Best Director. Maybe no one from “Three Billboards” was there, because they knew they weren’t winning at the end?

Biggest shock “Lady Bird” got NOTHING!?!?!?!? NOTHING!?!?

Ditto, also  nada for “The Post.”

Sooo    this a big wake-up call for “Lady Bird.” HMMMM….

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