It’s moments like these that make it all worth it…
Above, Alicia Vikander who just won Best Supporting Actress for “The Danish Girl” Not necessarily a sure bet. And below the COMPLETELY unexpected win by most, (but not me, I PREDICTED it!) Mark Rylance winning Best Supporting Actor for “Bridge of Spies.” And then “Spotlight” winning Best Picture! Sublime justice!
Last minute Oscar thoughts. I can’t believe(!) but OTOH, I do, that Oscarologist Maestro Tom O’Neill just changed his prediction for Best Picture from “The Revenant” to “Spotlight!” Not only that also over at Gold Derby, my esteemed colleague Jack Matthews, seems to be having the same thoughts I was expressing in my last post about British Actor Mark Rylance upsetting Sylvester Stallone in Best Supporting Actor. Rylance is nominated for “Bridge of Spies” and Stallone for his Rocky 6 comeback “Creed.” Is everyone at Gold Derby just reading this blog and stealing my ideas, or are they really the REAL THING? Le Vrai Choise, as the French would say? You can check Gold Derby out here. http://www.goldderby.com
Or are we all witnessing and reporting the same thing? I.E. “Spotlight” could win, and personally I hope it does. And so could Rylance. Pictured below with his real life counterpart, who he played so subtly and brilliantly in “Bridge of Spies.”Over at the Wrap, Steve Pond has been suggesting that the Best Way to Win an Oscar Pool is “to follow the Best Picture.” Meaning that nominees in other categories usually tend to be in or from the Best Pictures. And lest we forget “Bridge of Spies” is also a Best Picture nominee, directed by Steven Spielberg.
And also Jack Matthews, in a really great article, the same one I referenced above at Gold Derby, is talking about Deadlines. And I must confess, full disclosure, that I entered a for real Oscar pool this year, and picked the popular choices “The Revenant” for Best Picture and Sylvester Stallone for Supp. Actor, despite the qualms I’m writing about here.
After reading Tom and Jack, I feel I’m going to lose that pool. I would have won a free ticket to an AMC cinema movie. Oh! Just what I need! To see ANOTHER movie!
Well, being a film critic, it just never ends. They keep coming. And as we speak on a beach in Santa Monica, California, under their signature tent, the Independent Spirit Awards are being handed out. Check out http://www.awardsdaily.com who have a thread announcing the winners as they happen.
And what’s going on at the Indpendent Spirit Awards? I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see “Beasts of No Nation”s Abraham Attah, the child soldier win Best Actor there. And also who’s going to deny Idris Elba yet ANOTHER Supporting Actor trophy for the same film?
I also think “Tangerine” might surprise. You know that little tranny movie shot on an iPhone? It has a LOT of nominations.
And one more word about Mark Rylance. If there’s a living successor to Sir Laurence Olivier, he’s it. He’s a great actor. One of the greatest now living and is obviously going to go on to an equally stellar career on the big and small screen.
He was terrific in PBS’ “Wolf Hall” this year. In this day and age, there is beginning to be no big difference between TV and movies. Especially as far as acting achievements are concerned. His Oliver Cromwell was ANOTHER great performance. He was in nearly every scene of the entire successful mini-series of the dirty doings during Henry VIII’s reign and he held your attention every single minute. And Academy voters have that to consider,too, as they look at the Supporting Actor category.
Plus, he’s an awards magnet. Every time he steps on a New York stage, they throw a TONY at him.
Maybe they’ll start doing that with Oscars now, too.
Yes, dear readers, dear cineastes, Oscar voting has finally closed. As of today. And on Sunday it’s the Big “O” day and all the world( or some of it anyway) will be watching ABC at 8pm EST. And has anything changed in the last few minutes as it went down the wire? Well, Jeff Wells at http:www.Hollywood-Elsewhere.com says he was worried that he kept hearing that Best Picture may be stolen at the last minute by “Spotlight.” Which is something I’ve been hearing, too.
You see, I figure it like this. NOBODY takes into consideration that the AMPAS voters who live in New York, like I do, vote oftentimes as a block. Like the supposedly 600 members of BAFTA supposedly do.
But I think the number in New York is MORE much, much more. And I HEARD that yes, “Spotlight” is going to surprise. I also heard that NOBODY here in the East is voting for Sylvester Stallone.
Then who? The obscure British actor Mark Rylance for his nuanced Russian spy, someone who you think you’d hate, but you end up liking him immensely in “Bridge of Spies.” He just won the BAFTA. And he has won the hearts of NY theatergoers with his THREE TONY winning performances. He’s a Theater God. And all NYC AMPAS voters will have also seen his many incarnations on stage, and they all may be TONY voters as well. They who vote for Broadway every year.
They look down on Stallone. A bogus star, who has made so many bad movies, squandering his “Rocky” cachet. and barely an actor at all and celebrate Mark Rylance as a true actor’s actor. “Mark Rylance is a genius.” You hear that over and over again. And a vote for Rylance is a vote for Steven Spielberg, after all, who’s “Bridge of Spies” received a Best Picture nomination. “Creed” or Rocky VI got only Stallone.
NOBODY respects Stallone as an actor. He didn’t win an acting Oscar for “Rocky I” but the picture did. And so the thinking goes, he’s already been awarded. Some would save over-rewarded for Rocky Balboa.
The Academy is not feeling nostalgic in this era. He’s about to get Lauren Bacall’ed. She who did not win for Best Supporting Actress a number of years ago for the Barbra Streisand directed “The Mirror Has Two Faces.”. Losing it astonishingly to the prestige choice, French actress Juliet Binoche in the Best Picture Winner “The English Patient” in 1996.
Hey! It COULD happen. That would be the biggest upset of the night. If the Brits and the Big Apple AMPAS voters vote for Rylance, he’s got it.And then there’s the possiblity that “Spotlight” might upset, too. Wouldn’t that be a great ending to a night that so full of locks? Leo, Brie, “Inside Out” etc.
And now, this Sunday night in London, here comes what I feel is the most predictive awards show of all the BAFTAs. The British Oscars. And what do they have to do with OUR own Oscars, coming up on Feb.28? Well, I think they are the most influential accolade of all. Especially in the Acting Races. Where, if there’s a five way, undecided sort-of year, which this isn’t really, in the Acting Awards, they can tip the scales in one actor’s or actress’s favor.
As they did famously in the year that Tilda Swinton won for “Michael Clayton”, surprising many, but not me. Tilda won the BAFTA then she went right on to win her first Oscar. Interesting piece of Oscar trivia, Tilda, who could just not bear to have all these awards around her house, gave her British Oscar, her BAFTA to her British agent and her American Oscar to her American agent Brian Swardstrom. I bet they were glad to get them. NOTHING like that ever happens to actors’ agents, No wonder Tilda has never stopped working since!
You win the Oscar and you never stop working, so the story goes…True or not, it’s a nice thing to look forward to. For a moment. 
That year marked another BAFTA/Oscar milestone when the unknown French actress Marion Cotillard who was playing Edith Piaf to beat the band in “La Vie En Rose” went on to trounce Brit Julie Christie for Best Actress.
Mlle. Marion was acting in her own language, you see, and it was considered IMPOSSIBLE for a foreign actress to win. But I knew she would, her perfomance as Edith Piaf at all different ages was so incredible.
And so did Daniel Day-Lewis, who got up and made a speech when he won at the BAFTAs extolling Marion’s superlative performance. He won the BAFTA that year, too, for “There Will Be Blood.”. People, or rather Oscar voters, listened. I think the word he used was” transcendant.”
And this year? Well it seems almost all the Acting categories are locked. But wait a tic! There could be surprises. Leonardo Di Caprio in “The Revenant” has been winning EVERYTHING in sight this year and could win the Oscar. But will he win the BAFTA for Best Actor?
Don’t be surprised, Leo, if BAFTA does what it usually does and award a deserving, beloved Brit, Eddie Redmayne in “The Danish Girl.” And also watch out Brie Larson! She, who likewise is winning everything imaginable for “Room”.At BAFTA, she’s up against the It Girl of the Hour, Alicia Vikander for “The Danish Girl” who is up for Best Actress. Whereas at the Oscars, Alicia’s up for Best Supporting Actress for “The Danish Girl.” Her role as Gerde Vegener, who is a Danish painter married to a man who is going through the first known transgender transition is indelible, powerful.
Alicia could win the Best Actress BAFTA as “The Danish Girl” is a British Film and also Alicia, though Swedish, speaks English with a British accent. OR it could be Saoirse Ronan, who is Irish as Irish can be in “Brooklyn” an Irish film. And Brie Larson’s “Room” isn’t as popular over there as it has been here. It only has only other nomination Best Adapted Screenplay.
And the astonishing Alicia Vikander is having such a big year, that she’s nominated also in BAFTA in Supporting Actress for “Ex Machina.” Yes, Alicia winning either of these awards, would almost certainly assure her an Oscar win over Rooney Mara, the girl who wasn’t there, in “Carol”, her nearest competitor for Supporting Actress at the Oscars. Rooney is running as a Supporting Actress at BAFTA, as she is at the Oscars, but this time, she’s up against Alicia as the sexiest robot of all time in “Ex Machina.” Could Rooney win here and split the Vikander vote? “Carol” got a slew of nominations here, including Best Picture, although it didn’t in the US.
Alicia could win in both categories. That’s right! She could win TWO BAFTAs! OR of course, she could lose twice, too.
As far as Best Supporting Actor at BAFTA, it will most likely go to one of the nominated Brits. Idris Elba, yeah, him again, for “Beasts of No Nation,” I think he has this over fellow Brit and UK stage legend Mark Rylance for “Bridge of Spies.” He hasn’t been campaigning and has even skipped the BFCC and the SAG. Christian Bale is British, too, although he hardly ever mentions it. And he’s nominated for “The Big Short.” Watch this early-announced award. Who it goes to will tell us pretty clearly what will win Best Picture.
,And finally there’s the Best Picture race itself which pits people think “Spotlight” v. “The Revenant” v. “The Big Short”. And many, including myself, think that whatever film wins Best Film here could also go on to win the Oscar, too. Although wait another tic! Last year, the Brits picked “Boyhood” and Richard Linklater, and not “Birdman” and Alexander Gonzalez Inarittu who won the Oscars.
So there is a divide. What do I think is going to win Best Picture? Bet on the Brits voting for Brits, which could lead to “Carol” or “The Bridge of Spies” being a surprise win here, although “Spotlight” set in Boston and involving Irish Catholic pedophile priests might be something they could relate to over the Wall St. story “The Big Short” or the Western “The Revenant”. Have the EVER given a BAFTA to a Western? I think not. (more…)
Looking not at all like this possessed picture above ^ Brie Larson just won her well deserved SAG Award for Best Actress or as they put it, Best Female Actor. She seems so much like the girl next door, you can’t believe that she was the “captured for seven years” girl next door. In the shed in the back garden. And now here comes Best Actor!
Annnnnd it’s Leo. Oh well. And a Standing O, too. That’s it. That’s the ball game. He’ll win the Oscar, too. As will Brie Larson.
And “Spotlight” wins Best Ensemble!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THANK GOODNESS!!!!
A shocked Mark Ruffalo gave a very nice speech, very moving, very heartfelt. “I really didn’t expect this”he exclaimed. And then handed the blue “Actor” award over to Michael Keaton, who ALSO gave a very impassioned speech about the “disenfranchised everywhere. Flint, Michigan, everywhere.”
So basically, that ALSO is the ballgame, dear readers, dear cineastes, for Best Picture.
I saw “The Big Short”,”Spotlight”s main competitor, but I kept thinking “They’re not giving their main award to a film that they may not understand.”
Even though the heroes in “Spotlight” are journalists, a species that actors purport to disdain, but not tonight. And this win for “Spotlight” which I’m happy about, re-emphasizes that “Spotlight” is about something very, very serious and it’s a drama. “The Big Short” is a comedy. Comedy always loses and will probably now lose the Oscar, too. 
“Spotlight”is about the decades-long cover up of sexual abuse by priests in the Catholic Church is an important topic. SAG felt it was more important than Wall St.’s corruption.
I also felt that “The Big Short” disturbingly glamorizes this corruption. Which is something that “Spotlight” does not. It faces its’ issues straight on, and condemns them. And everybody in the movie is just terrifically understated, and quietly brilliantly intense.
This win tonight for “Spotlight” puts it in the front-runner spotlight, once again, and I think it will stay there through to the Oscars.
Mark Ruffalo’s very moving acceptance speech showed Oscar voters, who watch these predictive proceedings like a hawk, are very likely to take note of that marvelous moment of Ruffalo’s. They also saw Leo, and Brie, and Alicia Vikander doing their best Oscar audition acceptance speeches, too. And they did it so well, I think all three of them nailed down their Oscar wins tonight. Indupitably.
The only category left up in the air tonight was Best Supporting Actor, because supposed favorite Sylvester Stallone is leading that Oscar category and Idris Elba isn’t nominated there. But Mark Ruffalo is.
So we have a very locked and loaded Oscar race now. Except for Best Supporting Actor, which will be announced VERY early in the evening as it usually is.
This occasion is a much more joyous one than the Golden Globes were.Indubitably.
The Screen Actors Guild Awards are tonight, and I’m going to be live-blogging them, dear readers, dear cineastes. In NYC, they are on the TBS or TNT channels at 8pm EST. Check your local listings.
There should be MANY surprises tonight. We’ll see if the #Oscarssowhite controversy is going to impact the awards.
Black British Actor Idris Elba is the man of the hour tonight. He’s nominated for Best Supporting Actor on the film side for “Beasts of No Nation.” And on the TV side he’s nominated for “Luther”. He’s against Mark Rylance in both categories and I feel he is going to take home at least ONE “actor” as they call their awards. If “Beasts of No Nation” wins Best Ensemble, then Elba might be taking home three!
Rylance, a stage legend in Britain and multiple Tony winner on Broadway, is his main competition tonight for “Bridge of Spies” for Best Supporting Actor Film, and for “Wolf Hall” TV series.
Unfortunately, Elba was NOT nominated for an Oscar. (He’s a magnificent actor. He should have been.) None of this awful Oscarssowhite scandal would’ve happened if he had been nomminated. It’s rumored that he may be the first Black James Bond.
Here’s an interview I did with Idris a few years back at the Toronto Film Festival.
As for Best Picture Film, it’s back and forth and forth and back between “Spotlight” and late riser “The Big Short.” Which is what it was like last year with “Birdman” and “Boyhood.” Up til the last second. And then “Birdman” won by a beak at the Oscars. I still can’t believe that happened.
Me? I’d vote for “Spotlight” if I was a voting member of SAG. But I’m not, so we’ll see. Unlike the Academy, SAG voters DO have a sense of humor. So “The Big Short”s cutting edge wit would not be held against it tonight. We’ll see.
And if Leonardo wins Best Actor here tonight, he’ll win the Oscar, too. Ditto Brie Larson.
But if it’s Bryan Cranston for “Trumbo” LOOK OUT! All bets are off. And Leo could kiss his Oscar good-bye. At least for “The Revenant”
And I think Alicia Vikander will triumph here in Supporting Actress for “The Danish Girl.”
e
The All Important Producers Guild just announced seconds ago its’ list of the Top Ten Films of 2015. Why is the PGA as it’s abbreviated sooo important? Well, apart from SAG, it is the first solid indication of just who’s in and who’s,out the (most likely) to be nominated films for Best Picture and there’s quite a few surprises. This is the industry speaking now, not critics’ groups or press.
And there are more than many snubs. A lot of people’s Oscar dreams are ending right here.
The theatrical motion picture nominees are:
The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures:
Ø The Big Short
Producers: Brad Pitt & Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner
Ø Bridge of Spies
Producers: Steven Spielberg, Marc Platt, Kristie Macosko Krieger
Ø Brooklyn
Producers: Finola Dwyer & Amanda Posey
Ø Ex Machina
This film is in the process of being vetted for producer eligibility
Ø Mad Max: Fury Road
Producers: Doug Mitchell & George Miller
Ø The Martian
Producers: Simon Kinberg, Ridley Scott, Michael Schaefer, Mark Huffam
Ø The Revenant
Producers: Arnon Milchan, Steve Golin, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Mary Parent, Keith Redmon
Ø Sicario
Producers: Basil Iwanyk, Edward L. McDonnell, Molly Smith
Ø Spotlight
Producers: Michael Sugar & Steve Golin, Nicole Rocklin, Blye Pagon Faust
Ø Straight Outta Compton
Producers: Ice Cube & Matt Alvarez, F. Gary Gray, Dr. Dre, Scott Bernstein
The Indies, “Brooklyn,” and esp. “Ex Machina” are really shocking as is the inclusion of “Straight Outta Compton.” This is REALLY good news of Saorise Ronan who single-handedly makes this slight film a delight, and gives an equally delightful performance. And Soarise is pronounced SHEER-sha, btw, for those who still don’t know how to say this tremendously charming twenty-year-old’s name. The EXCLUSION of “Room” makes Soarise a real threat to win Best Actress over “Room”s Brie Larson, I’m afraid. But it’s a real duel between the two young ladies now.
This announcement also helps, as I predicted earlier this week, the ever-ascending Alicia Vikander who is the robotic fulcrum of “Ex Machina.” I guess you could say Alicia is playing the title role! This makes her even more likely to land in Supporting for “Ex Machina.” and hopefully in lead, too, for “The Danish Girl.”
Good news also for “Spotlight” since it needs to recover from yesterday’s exclusion for the also-important Ace Eddie Nominations.
Baad news for the Weinstein Co. since neither “Carol” nor “The Hateful Eight” appeared here.
And even though “Star Wars:The Force Awakens” is killing it at the box-office, to put it mildly, it did not land on the Producers’ list. You’d think that any film that making the millions and billions that “Star Wars” is and is becoming a cultural phenomenon to boot, would’ve landed on this list.
Two other extravaganzas “The Martian” and “Mad Max:Fury Road” DID land.
And adding in “Ex Machina” that makes it three sci-fi films in contention.
And it makes me think they like, they really like the sexy robot Ava of Alicia Vikander. She WILL win an Oscar ~ Category still to be determined!
The Year’s Ten Best Films in my humble estimation of someone who’s seeing films constantly all year long. And I have to point out that I really did see the majority of these films at TIFF. “The Danish Girl” my Number One choice, “The Son of Saul” (didn’t mean to put the picture of “Trumbo” next to it. Oops again, and I don’t know how to move it), “The Lady in the Van” and “The Rainbow Kid.” I’m cheating a little by including the poignant “Rainbow Kid,” but I just loved it so I’m putting it in even though it doesn’t have a distributor in the U.S. to my knowledge. It’s released in Canada and “Room” was also a Canadian film. “Room”, “Trumbo”, “Spotlight” and “Hitchcock/Truffaut” were all in Toronto, but I saw them immediately when I returned. Bam! Bam! Bam! I can’t recommend these films highly enough. They were all joys to see.
1.The Danish Girl (pictured above ^)
2. The Son of Saul
3. Hitchcock/Truffaut
4.Room
5. Trumbo
6. Spotlight
7.The Lady in the Van
8. Grandma
9.The Martian
10. The Rainbow Kid
The National Society of Film Critics perhaps the most esoteric of the awards-giving critics groups have named “Spotlight” the Best Film of the Year. It also won Best Screenplay. Already way out ahead of every other film this year, “Spotlight” just solidifies its’ lead and is making this year’s Best Picture race seem more like the year “Slumdog Millionaire” trounced everything in its’ path and won every award heading up the ultimate, the Oscars.
Surprisingly, the overlooked Michael P. Jordan won Best Actor for “Creed”.
It’s also interesting to note that Geza Rohrig came in second place for “The Son of Saul.” I still think he’s going to get nominated by the Academy for Best Actor. Only Leonardo Di Caprio and Eddie Redmayne are the locks in that category. Anything can happen. Especially with the critical and box-office strength “The Big Short” is showing. Although the National Society didn’t give it anything. Although it came in third for Screenplay behind the winner “Spotlight” and the stop-action animated film by Charlie Kaufman.
Best Actress went to Charlotte Rampling who really needed this boost for “45 Years.”
Best Supporting Actress Kristen Stewart for “The Clouds of Sils Maria.” Second place went to Alicia Vikander for “Ex Machina” solidifying her march to TWO possible nominations as I’ve noted in the previous post.
Supporting for “Ex Machina” sexy, manipulative robot Eva and in Lead for “The Danish Girl.” The Awards Coronation of Vikander is well underway.
And Best Supporting Actor is once again Mark Rylance for “The Bridge of Spies” for his comical/sad/shifty Russian spy, who also doubles as a painter. Rylance a four-time Tony Award winner is beginning to be the assumed front-runner for the Steven Spielberg Cold War spy thriller.
Best Director was also surprisingly Todd Haynes for “Carol.” It also won Best Cinematography for the great Ed Lachman beautiful 16 mm. lensing of this Patricia Highsmith lesbian love story.
I’m expecting a bombshell at the SAG awards. I think “Trumbo” is poised to upset many Oscar apple-carts. It’s got everything. A true Hollywood scandal with a real life hero Dalton Trumbo, and a magnificent career-best performance by the beloved-by-his-fellow-actors Bryan Cranston.
It’s a story that’s never been told. And there are many still alive today, like Kirk Douglas, who is depicted in the film, who were effected by the terrible Blacklist of a group of writers, who became known as the Hollywood Ten. Why? Because the admitted to being members of the Communist Party back in the days, the ’50s, when McCarthy witch-hunts were ruling the land.
And it has its own Cruella De Ville villainess that you can feel free to hiss, and boo, Dame Helen Mirren as the red-baiting, but powerful Hollywood gossip columnist Hedda Hopper. Mirren seems to slither through this movie like a silken snake. It’s a role that has garnered Mirren already a SAG nomination as well as a Golden Globe.
And Bryan Cranston is just sensational! He gets to pull our heart-strings as one of the most courageous Hollywood screenwriters has ever seen,who kept on writing for the movies, even after the US govt. forbade him to. He was bankrupted. He was even sent to jail!
And then when he came out of jail, he was reduced to writing schlock screenplays for the schlockmeiester-to-end-all-schlockmeisters, played by John Goodman, who adds a JOLT to any film he’s in. He essayed a similar role in “The Artist” and THAT small, unexpected film won the Oscar, lest we forget, and after “Birdman”s win last year, it shows us that Hollywood will never get over its’ love affair with itself. “Trumbo” may find itself nominated for many things, besides Cranston and Mirren. It could get nominated for Best Picture,too! Wouldn’t THAT be a surprise!”Spotlight” LOOK OUT!
“Trumbo”s got a star-studded cast who really deliver and who all have been nominated for Best Ensemble for the SAG award. To the great surprise of everyone in the blogosphere and out of it. They didn’t expect that, and they also didn’t expect Cranston and Mirren to land both Globe&SAG nods. It might even win Best Ensemble which is SAG’s equivalent of best picture. This award may be where “Trumbo” triumphs, too, and not the presumed front-runner “Spotlight.”
It’s a Hollywood story through and through with a genuine hero, who suffered and nearly died, at Hwood’s bad hands. I know of one man who killed himself due to this, and this tragic story has never fully been told, until now. But it’s an inspiring film too, because Trumbo triumphs in the end when “Spartacus” has his name on the title credits “Screenplay by Dalton Trumbo.” It’s a golden moment that’s a very satisfying climax to the appauling story of prejudice and discrimination that has gone before.
You love Cranston in this, as you loved him in “Breaking Bad” as the iconic Walter White. And we have to remember that AFTRA the TV actors union has now merged with SAG, making it no crime at all to succeed on the small screen as well as the big one..
Cranston is one of the great actors we have today and he totally aces the role of the grumpy, mustachioed, eccentric-but-principled Dalton Trumbo. He is immensely respected as an actors’ actor and he gives one of the best performances of the year. And he’s in his 40’s when he starts and then he ages! Something that always catnip to the Academy. AND he gets strip searched nude in prison, and has to endure a shocking anal cavity search. But he never gives up or gives in.
And he has one hilarious scene with an Oscar on a table before him, an Oscar which he won writing “Roman Holiday” under one of his enforced aliases, and he keeps saying “I don’t want it” to the writer sitting across from him, played by Alan Tudkyk.
I think that Cranston had better clear a place on his already over-crowded mantle-piece. He won so many Emmys for “Breaking Bad” and a Tony, too, for his LBJ in “All the Way” on Broadway last year.
People just keep throwing awards at him, and awards magnet that he is, he’s going to get the SAG and then the Oscar, too.
Leo for doing stunt work in the odious, repellant “The Revenant” doesn’t stand a chance against America’s answer to Daniel Day-Lewis, Bryan Cranston.
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