a.k.a. "The Oscar Messenger"

Posts tagged ‘Last Minute’

FINAL SAG Predictions! Each Film Will Win ONE Award

manchester-by-the-sea-92-emma-stonesI have to get this out as soon as possible. It’s SUCH a cut and dried year that it’s almost like typing blindfold. OF COURSE, Casey Affleck is going to win Best Actor tomorrow night at the SAG Awards. He’s won everything else. And it IS a great affecting performance that stays with you. It is also the most courageous depiction of grief I’ve ever seen in a major motion picture. He’ll win here because I think the SAG ensemble prize is going elsewhere. No, it’s not the 14 time Oscar nominee “La La Land”. It wasn’t even nominated!

But I think it’s leading lady, Emma Stone will win Best Actress. If they like “La La Land” and evidently they do, Emma in Best Actress is the only place they can vote for LLL. The same with “Manchester”. Casey Affleck will win big, because it’s not possible to vote for him or “Manchester by the Sea” anywhere else in this group of Awards.

Also, remember it’s a VERY American voting body. It’s the Actor’s of America voting so foreigners need not apply.

Viola Davis is the most mortal of locks for Best Supporting Actress for “Fences.” She’ll repeat her Broadway triumph here.

It’s a little trickier as we go on. So far we have one for “Manchester by the Sea”, Casey Affleck and one for “La La Land” Emma Stone, We have one for “Fences” which will be Viola Davis.

Then we run into the problem so who will win Best Supporting Actor. Will it be Mahershala Ali for “Moonlight” or Patel for “Lion”? Given that I think SAG is in a -spread-the-wealth mood. If Mahershala wins for his compassionate drug dealer then “Moonlight” won’t also win Best Ensemble. They might want to give “Moonlight” Best Ensemble(and it truly IS an ensemble). Then another actor of color would win Supporting which would be Dev Patel. If they liked “Lion” and the Weinsteins, this is the only category where they can vote for him.

So, if early in the evening, Patel wins in Supporting, then you can be sure that “Moonlight” will walk away with ensemble

But if it’s Mahershala Ali, who wins then the top award, their version of Best Picture, will go to another racially themed film, the box-office blockbuster “Hidden Figures” which has been surging during the voting period.

So therefore SAG will feel they’ve been fair to all. “Everyone has won and all  shall have prizes” cried the Dodo in “Alice Through the Looking Glass.

#SAG Awards #Final Predictions, #Casey Affleck, #Best Actor, # La La Land

 

 

 

 

Advertisements

Oscar Voting Closes. Has Anything Changed?

Oscars 2015

Yes, dear readers, dear cineastes, Oscar voting has finally closed. As of today. And on Sunday it’s the Big “O” day and all the world( or some of it anyway) will be watching ABC at 8pm EST. And has anything changed in the last few minutes as it went down the wire? Well, Jeff Wells at http:www.Hollywood-Elsewhere.com says he was worried that he kept hearing that Best Picture may be stolen at the last minute by “Spotlight.” Which is something I’ve been hearing, too.

You see, I figure it like this. NOBODY takes into consideration that the AMPAS voters who live in New York, like I do, vote oftentimes as a block. Like the supposedly 600 members of BAFTA supposedly do.

But I think the number in New York is MORE much, much more. And I HEARD that yes, “Spotlight” is going to surprise. I also heard that NOBODY here in the East is voting for Sylvester Stallone.

Then who? The obscure British actor Mark Rylance for his nuanced Russian spy, someone who you think you’d hate, but you end up liking him immensely in “Bridge of Spies.” He just won the BAFTA. And he has won the hearts of NY theatergoers with his THREE TONY winning performances. He’s a Theater God. And all NYC AMPAS voters will have also seen his many incarnations on stage, and they all may be TONY voters as well. They who vote for Broadway every year.

They look down on Stallone. A bogus star, who has made so many bad movies, squandering his “Rocky” cachet. and barely an actor at all and celebrate Mark Rylance as a true actor’s actor. “Mark Rylance is a genius.” You hear that over and over again. And a vote for Rylance is a vote for Steven Spielberg, after all, who’s “Bridge of Spies” received a Best Picture nomination. “Creed” or Rocky VI got only Stallone.

NOBODY respects Stallone as an actor. He didn’t win an acting Oscar for “Rocky I” but the picture did. And so the thinking goes, he’s already been awarded. Some would save over-rewarded for Rocky Balboa.

The Academy is not feeling nostalgic in this era. He’s about to get Lauren Bacall’ed. She who did not win for Best Supporting Actress a number of years ago for the Barbra Streisand directed “The Mirror Has Two Faces.”. Losing it astonishingly to the prestige choice, French actress Juliet Binoche in the Best Picture Winner “The English Patient” in 1996.

Hey! It COULD happen. That would be the biggest upset of the night. If the Brits and the Big Apple AMPAS voters vote for Rylance, he’s got it.And then there’s the possiblity that “Spotlight” might upset, too. Wouldn’t that be a great ending to a night that so full of locks? Leo, Brie, “Inside Out” etc.Juliet Binoche 1Mark Rylance 3Oscars

Tag Cloud

%d bloggers like this: