a.k.a. "The Oscar Messenger"

Posts tagged ‘Universal’

Who Will Harvey Pick? He’s Got THREE Best Supp. Actors

It’s raining/sleeting/snowing in NYC, but to continue with my train of thought since the last post… Who will Harvey Weinstein pick of his threesome of Best Supporting Actors to push, push, push to Oscar gold?

I guess it was noticed that Phillip Seymour Hoffman was MIA to pick up, or even show up, for the Awards shows this past week. I think he’s rather furious that he’s been relegated to Supporting Actor, for what clearly was a co-lead in the flop “The Master.” So he’s not being super-co-operative. Or PSH is seeing the handwriting on the wall and it’s not spelling HIS name.

I think it’s spelling Robert Deniro’s. Yes, for the audience-friendly “Silver Linings Playbook,” which is only now going wide.The box-office for “SLP” has not being overwhelming to say the least. It’s a difficult, quirky comedy. Or dramedy. And it’s a small, domestic-arguement kind of film. It doesn’t have the range or scope of the epics of this year, “Les Miserables”, or “Argo” or “Zero Dark Thirty” or “Lincoln.”

The “Lincoln” camp is quaking in their boots. Getting “Hilary Clinton’s husband,”to quote the super sharp Amy Poehler, the evening’s resoundingly successful co-host (along with Tina Fey), to introduce the “Lincoln” clip was the act of a desperate group of people. In this case, Disney. They NEVER have run a successful Oscar campaign. Look at how they botched “The Help” last year.

Their sledge-hammer approach cost Viola Davis her Oscar bid last year. They got Best Supporting Actress for “The Help”s Octavia Spenser, but Best Supp. ANYthing is always considered by the Academy as a consolation prize. It’s just not as important as Best ACTOR and Best ACTRESS and now, this year, Best Director.

Liked Anne Hathaway’s seeming slam-dunk lock for “Les Miserables” That category is effectively closed. Give it up, Sally Field.

But back to Harvey. HE KNOWS how to run an Oscar campaign, and he’s relentless in its’ pursuit. Only this year’s ponies, as my idol Tom O’Neil would say over at http://www.goldderby.com, are not the thoroughbreds he was pushing in the past two historic years when he had “The Artist” and “The King’s Speech.” “SLP” is just NOT as good a film as the two recent Oscar winners, who were both Weinstein Co. productions.

Personally, I think he’s going to go after “Silver Linings Playbook” anyway for the win. Or as many wins as he can get for it. Main among them, Jennifer Lawrence for Best Actress. She already just won Best Actress Comedy at the Globes, but that was ALLLL “SLP” won, no matter how hard Harvey & Co. were campaigning for it. Next up, the SAG Awards, for which Robert Deniro IS nominated, in Supp.

And that means the twice-Oscared, but never SAGed DeNiro could be looking at HIS third Oscar and HE’S campaigning! Something he NEVER does.IOW, he’s co-operating with Harvey’s Oscar vision for “SLP”.

HW COULD prevail for DeNiro, who, let’s face it is a bona fide Oscar legend, and we’ll just see who out of the current Weinstein Co. stable DOES win Best Supporting Actor.

The co-operative Christophe Waltz won his second Golden Globe in two years, thanks to Harvey, for “Django Unchained.” And who gives the Best Performance out of Hoffman, DeNiro and Waltz. I’d say it was Waltz. And that may happen at the Oscars, too. He may duplicate his win as will, I think Quentin Tarantino in Best Original Screenplay.

Harvey Weinstein KNOWS how to run an Oscar campaign. Disney does not. And Neither does Fox, who has “Life of Pi” and also neither does Universal, who has “Les Miserables” which SHOULD be the winner IMHO. But alllll these majors, the studios, just aren’t USED to winning Oscars anymore. It’s like they were all born yesterday and only Harvey and the Weinstein Co. know what they are doing….And that’s just the way it is this year, ladies and gente-persons, dear readers, dear cineastes.

Except for the fly in the ointment, “Argo”.

You can’t have TWO Davids v. one Goliath. Like “SLP” AND “Argo” v. Goliath “Lincoln.” So which of “Argo” and “SLP” is the “Little Film That Could”? The Oscar question of the morning.

Advertisements

Gold Derby Kick Starts Oscar Race 2012

Tom O’Neil, the grand-daddy of us all, has tried to kick start this year’s Oscar race by throwing his Gold Derby pundits’ guesses(and it’s all guesses) at this point as no one seen the pictures they are talking about, by saying “Lincoln” loud and clear for Best Picture AND Best Actor, a third win for Daniel Day Lewis.

Now, I don’t know about that. If Steven Spielberg does to Lincoln what he did to “War Horse”, we are gonna be drowning in schmaltz, once again. Shocked, kinda, that this is the Best Picture frontrunner, from Tom and his ditto-heads. I would’ve thought it would be “Les Miserabables.” The long-awaited film version of the musical directed by Academy Award Winner Tom Hooper of “The King’s Speech.”

Me? Give me “The King’s Speech” any day over “War Horse.”

You can’t over-sentimentalize Abraham Lincoln and his tragic struggles to free the slaves.  I mean, look what happened with “The Help” this year. It only won Best Supporting Actress when all is said and done. And that’s ALLLL it got. It made a lot of money for Disney, sure. But it lost to the not-so-successful at the box-office “The Artist.” But “The Artist” was black and white and silent. I guess B.O. comparisons can’t be made anymore when you’re talking about Oscar as he exists today. The Academy is NOT looking at the bottom line.”The Artist” and “The King’s Speech” prove it.

For Best Actress, Gold Derby has anointed Laura Linney, of the also still sight  unseen, “Hyde Park on the Hudson” which is about FDR and his mistress, and Laura’s the mistress. Now that sounds more likely. Laura has been nominated three times, but hasn’t won. It’s a small, character-driven art film, and she’s playing a real person. Not a very well-known real person, but a real person still, and she, like Meryl Streep last year in “The Iron Lady”, gets to age DECADES.

Day Lewis already has two Best Actor Oscars and Spielberg two Best Director Oscars.

So Laura is OVERdue. And DDL and SS aren’t due anything from the Academy,IMHO..

In Supporting, they’ve all agreed that the Best Supporting Actress race has coalesced already around Anne Hathaway’s  astounding rendition of the “I Dreamed a Dream” which has just exploded all over the internet, in the past few days. She is playing the part of the tragic Fantine in “Les Miserables.” And that video which you can see over at Oscar Goddess Sasha Stone’s http://www.awardsdaily.com is stunning.Moving. Unforgettable. Surprising.  One of the best trailers I’ve ever seen.

Anne Thompson over at http://www.indiewire.com actually got her gigantic list of Oscar possibles up first earlier this week, and all I remember from them is that Annie is placed by Anne in the Best Actress category! Category confusion all over the place! I’ll have to look at what St. Anne said, again, now that Tom-O has thrown down his Oscar guantlet, too. Anne, I think, had NOBODY in the frontrunner section for Best Supporting.

Gold Derby seems to think it’s going to be Joaquim Phoenix for the Weinstein Co.’s Christmas offering “The Master” about Scientology. The controversial Phoenix plays the Master’s(Phillip Seymour Hoffman) most ardent pupil. Not so sure about this one. But they seem to think he’s going to go head to head with Leonardo Di Caprio’s villainous slave-master in “Django Unchained.”

“Django Unchained” and “The Master” were both sneaked at Cannes by TWC and perhaps they are right in thinking, over at Gold Derby, that this is where Harvey W. will win this year.

Nobody’s predicted a third in a row for the Weinstein Co. After “King’s Speech” and “The Artist” both winning Best Picture two years in a row, Harvey was on a roll. But now it seems more like a croissant. With Best Supp. Actor, the Weinstein Co.’s best shot.

I think “Les Miz” is going to get more Oscar nominations in more categories across the board than any other film. It’s from Universal. And also this prognostication, early though it is, leads us to believe that it’s going to be a very studio-driven Oscars this year.

We shall see.

Tag Cloud

%d bloggers like this: