a.k.a. "The Oscar Messenger"

Posts tagged ‘Peggy Siegel’

OSCAR gets nearer.Roger Ebert & Sasha Stone predict a “King’s Speech” Sweepie!

The anticipation and excitement are building to a fever pitch. Oscar is coming! Oscar is coming!One if land! Twelve if by sea! Sez who? Sez me!

I have done a TV show on this topic, Oscar predictions for over 20 years, but this year I have this wonderful blog, and so I am choosing to do it in this forum, rather than on TV.

Also, with a TV show you’re locked into the time, your choices are frozen, as it were, to when you actually taped the show. Your predictions are frozen,too, and that’s that. And you always tape ahead, usually WAY ahead of the air date. You always have to allow time, sometimes a LOT of time for the editing process.

But this year the race has been SOOOO fluid. Not locked down at all. So this blog can reflect the daily Oscar race changes. AND DOES!

Ah! But you say, it’s the most locked-down of all!

 Weelllll, two and half weeks ago it was “The Joy of Typing” all the way and now…Well, of course, it’s going to be a “King’s Speech” sweep! Even Roger Ebert agrees with me! And so do Oscar God and Goddess David Karger and Sasha Stone. Dave’s at www.ew.com and Sasha, of course, reigns at www.awardsdaily.com.

Dave,  who I actually met for the first time in Toronto in the sweltering TIFF hallway, waiting to get in to see Geoffrey Rush, Tom Hooper and finally Colin Firth, the King himself, has,  Dave, like myself, been predicting “The King’s Speech” all the ways since September. Anne Thompson, too.

And so, if you haven’t been reading closely, I am OF COURSE, sticking with that Best Picture pic, and Colin, and also predicting a sweep.

Tom Hooper, Roger Ebert now agrees with me, is going to be anointed Best Director. And Sasha Stone although she has always deeply loved “The Joy of Typing” now admits to a King Speech sweep. She’s even coined a new word to define it “Sweepie”. Oh, that Sahsa!

So how much of a sweepie?

Sasha and I and now Roger Ebert, too, think that Geoffrey Rush is going to trounce Christian Bale, and NOW WOULDN’T THAT BE A SURPRISE to most! David Karger still has Christian winning. And oh, let’s throw those colorful charts at Movieline in, too. www.movieline.com.

They have Christian as Numero Uno. And Colin and King’s Speech. But I’m going to go with Geoffrey.

I don’t think “The Fighter” is going to get anything. For reasons I’ve explained in the past few posts. And I’m sure Scott Feinberg www.scottfeinberg.com does not want me to re-iterate them again here.

But Roger going for Rush over Bale? That’s huge! And Roger wasn’t a big TKS fan. He was always with TJOT until it went through some kind of Oscar menopause and The King emerged triumphant.

Dave, Roger and I are all still behind Natalie Portman in Best Actress. Could there be a surprise there? Annette Bening, I mean. Anne Thompson and Sasha think this could happen. I say, look to the BAFTAs on Sundey. If Annette upsets there….WATCH OUT! If it’s not Natalie as usual…

Both Roger and Annette have appeared on my  TV show BTW. As Thelma Adams would say “Full Disclosure.” More about Thelma in a minute…

But what then to make of the tempestuous Best Supporting Actress category? I’m still in the Helena Bonham-Carter camp. The BAFTAS are this Sunday and pay close attention to what happens in THAT category…As well as Best Actress…and Geoffrey Rush is probalby going to win there, too…

BUT, Roger Ebert, David Karger and Movieline all have Hailee Steinfeld as winning!

Should I switch to Hailee (whose performance doesn’t really deserve it) and hale her as a large majority of people, all of them STRAIGHT MEN in the Academy are doing? I don’t know where Sasha is on this.

But if the Sweepie continues…and she wins BAFTA this weekend…I’d say Helena will have a better shot than it seems she may right now. Helena has been wowing the press in L.A. She’s got a great sense of humor. When asked what she’s going to be wearing to the Oscars, she said, “I don’t know, but whatever it will be, will be a diaster!”Lolol…

Harvey Weinstein has handled the King’s Speech campaign majestically. He even had ANOTHER Peggy Siegel party honoring Geoffrey Rush earlier this week. IN NEW YORK! This following Rush’s being honored at the Santa Barbara Film Festival last week. And Jeffrey Wells, who’s been hating on “The King’s Speech” since FOREVER at his www.hollywood-elsewhere.com blog was UPSET that he didn’t get invited! After all those awful things that Jeff has been writing allllll year-long about “The King’s Speech” is he really SURPRISED that he wasn’t invited to this?!? REALLY, Jeff?!?

Meanwhile, the other Geoffrey, Rush, that is,  also opening tonight at BAM in “Diary of a Madman” and will undoubtedly be reigned, er, rained upon with kudos. I may even trek out to Brooklyn myself to see this. Stay tuned. Next week starts the “Rendezvous with French Cinema”  a sort of mini-French Film Festival in NYC(think Cannes withOUT the Rivieria) and I may be tackling that Festival for the first time this year. It’s at Lincoln Center.

And Thelma Adams? She turns out to be in Melissa Leo’s controversial video of her  equally controversial self-bought ad campaign’s photo shoot. And Thelma also turns out to be Melissa’s BFF! Who knew? But she’s written a marvelous, pointed Q&A with her best friend, and Thelma does ask her the hard questions, like –

Thelma(as MC, which is Mari-Claire, the magazine where this story will run): You were the front-runner. Why did you feel it was necessary to do this?

Melissa Leo: I didn’t know I was the front-runner. Nobody said that I was…

Well, d’oh. Melissa you WERE. Everybody that I read everywhere said you were. I guess you just didn’t get the Memo *sigh*

And she goes on www.mariclaire.com to again complain about ageism in Hollywood. And yes, I agree it’s there. In spades. And it shouldn’t be.

But to turn your Oscar campaign head-over-heels and end with, everybody thinks, a 13-year-old winning what should have been YOUR Oscar? Well, the irony is getting a little heavy in here.

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Day Three – Eaten. Day Four-Riot at the Scotia Bank!

Oh no! My third day at TIFF has disappeared completely! And I was so happy — yesterday…

Saw the Best Film Of the Year “The King’s Speech” and interviewed both Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush! As well as their British/Australian director Tom Hooper. Who nicknamed me their “Oscar Messenger”! I think I’ll add it as a subtitle! A.K.A THE OSCAR MESSENGER!

And — all of it has disappeared!

And now I’m feeling absolutely sick, because I was caught in a near mob scene, yes, TIFF does it again! It this was Day Four RUINED! Because like an idiot I was made to stand for over an hour waiting to get into see Danny Boyle’s new movie “127 Hours” which is how long it felt standing in that line! With  over 1000 people and the airconditioning not really working. And Cameron Bailey, TIFF’s CEO, rising to his full height, which must be over six feet and operating in crowd control mode, if not riot…People were sooo weakened by this….

I’m just a shadow of my former self. My knees are KILLING me. And I’m afraid to go back into that building, the Scotia Bank, again….Makes the case for going to Telluride, doesn’t it?

But I did see two movies this morning. Marion Cotillard’s “Little White Lies” and also Fridrik Thor Fridriksson’s best film in AGES “Mama Gogo” Icelandic, of course. And I just loved it. About a filmmaker(obviously him) played by  my old friend Hylmer Snaer Gudnudsson, trying to get a film made while his senior citizen mother, Mama Gogo, is losing it to Alzheimer’s. I loved it.

Tomorrow is going to be a killer day. What with the Bell Lightbox opening, then the Woody Allen press conference which is now an AUDIO press conference. No video allowed. And then Marion herself and my big reunion with her both of these in the Four Seasons, then I’m supposedly back at the Scene-Of-the-Riot the Scotia Bank…to interview Fridrik…something tells me, we won’t be getting back downtown for that one…

I am so upset that the Blog about “The King’s Speech” disappeared! I was so excited, and it truly was a wonderful, wonderful film experience! One of the best I’ll ever have! IN MY LIFE! A high so high that it justifies all you have to go through for TIFF’s sake. It was magnificent. The audience was transfixed. An audience of CRITICS no less. Who applauded. Laughed. And the at the end didn’t want to leave. They stayed and READ THE CREDITS?!?! Oscar nominations for everyone! And the buzz now is that Colin Firth has won the Oscar…

Depends entirely on how sick Michael Douglas is – or isn’t…

I met Peggy Siegel in the sweltering hallway outside the “King’s Speech” junket in a remote part of the building that no one knew was there! Talk about clandestine!?!? Is Colin Firth THAT famous? Well, he sure is the talk of the Festival!

I typed this all yesterday and now I am just repeating myself. But it was a sublime movie and a sublime moment for me and him and Geoffrey Rush and their director, Tom Hooper, who all seemed astonished that I was their “Oscar messenger.” I think Tom Hooper said that.

I told Colin that it was the Best Film of the Year and that it’s one of the greatest screen performances EVAH! And it is…

I’m not overstating this. Everyone here is just breath-took by it. And I think it only had ONE measly P&I screening and won’t be seen in the States until November.

I also told Colin that he was going to win every single critics award and was for sure going to get nominated for an Oscar for Best Actor and that he COULD win.

This was after saying two days ago when I saw Wall Street 2 that it was Michael Douglas’…!!! OOOPS! I knew Colin was the other contender and I knew he would be very, very good. Excellent, too. But I didn’t judge that it would be a HISTORIC performance! But it is! It’s one of the great screen performances.

I told Colin this and he was really non-plussed. At a loss for words. And then he wondered whether or not he really would win…I think after losing last year to Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart” he’s not at all sure about things like this…

I said his role had everything. He’s playing a Royal. Brit, Brit, Brit AND he’s disabled. He’s got a handicap. His stutter, which is a VERY hard thing to play and play convincingly and SUSTAIN it for the entire film.

Geoffrey Rush is equally sublime as the Australian speech teacher who helps him overcome it and he’s equally magnificent.

He’ll be nominated for Best Supporting Actor and even though he already has an Oscar he could win there, too.

AND they’ve got Harvey Weinstein behind them!

The film that this reminded me the most of was “Shakespeare in Love” which Rush also scored a Supporting nom for but he didn’t win, though the film did. And Gwyneth. AND Colin Firth was actually  in that movie, too, as Gwyneth’s disliked fiancee…

So now I have to change my Facebook headline. Two days ago it was Michael Douglas’ to lose. But now I think he’s just lost it. To Colin Firth. Well, it will be a big critical hit, f’r sure.

And Colin said to me ON CAMERA “Can I carry you with me everywhere?”(Well, maybe he said “take me with you”…) And I said,

“Yes! I’m ostentatiously available!”

And THEN I get stuck in another TIFF near riot….They should’ve expected this. They had nothing strong programmed AGAINST “129 hours” this afternoon.

MISTAKE!

Opening “The King’s Speech” at the same time as the “Black Swan” as far as P&I is concerned was actually a brilliant stroke of programming. Nobody rioted and everybody got in – to one or the other. NOT THE CASE with “129 Hours.”

This just in — there was a fire alarm! They didn’t tell us! On the anniversary of 9/11!?!?! I could’ve DIED there!

I saw Tom O’Neill and also Rex Reed, at a distance. Neither looked happy. OMG! A BOMB SCARE! Or whatever it was.

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