a.k.a. "The Oscar Messenger"

Posts tagged ‘Moonrise Kingdom’

SAG Awards and PGA this weekend! Predictions!

It’s a big weekend in the Awards Calendar as Oscar draws ever nearer… The PGA (The Producers Guild of America) announces who they picked as Best Picture of 2012 on Sat. And as if that weren’t enough excitement on Sunday, we have the always exciting, always misleading SAG Awards. The Screen Actors Guild.

Some of the members of these guilds are in the Academy. A lot of them. But more importantly the producers have a list of ten. The Oscar only nominated nine. And while the producers picked “Skyfall”, the Academy didn’t and dropped “Moonrise Kingdom” but picked up “Amour.” But even MORE importantly they use a preferential ballot, which is what the Oscars do with Best Picture. But ONLY Best Picture.

Every other Oscar category is by a simple majority. IOW, whoever gets the most votes wins.

The Prefentials Ballot is Sooooo complicated I will defer to Oscar Goddess Sasha Stone at the superior and ever-essential http://www.awardsdaily.com to let her and the great Steve Pond of http://www.thewrap.com explain THAT particular kettles of thorns.

I’m mixing metaphors, but I don’t mince words.

So IOW the Producer’s Guild with its large voting body is more of an approximate cross-section of the Academy’s. So whoever they choose as their winner on Sat. may very well tell the tale of who or what is going to win Best Picture.

And I think, like the Hollywood Foreign Press and the Broadcast Film Critics that they are going to go with “Argo.” Ben Affleck who was notoriously snubbed by the Academy for Best Director, as was Katheryn Bigelow, is riding high right now on a wave of monumental sympathy for this snub. And the PGA may very well correct this.

The SAGs, being a mass of many thousands of actors, is a little harder to predict correctly. They follow their own star. I would like to think that my personal favorite “Les Miserables” may pull a surprise upset here and win their Best Ensemble award. Best Ensemble is the SAGs way of saying Best Picture. And “Les Mis” certainly had a great ensemble, in my book.

I would love to see Hugh Jackman win for “Les Miserables” and best Daniel Day-Lewis for his boring performance in the bore-to-end-all-bores “Lincoln.” “Lincoln” has the most nominations across all these awards bodies and consistently lost. To “Argo”!

All the controversy that is still swirling around “Zero Dark Thirty” is going to make it very hard to win ANYTHING I think. Coupled with the fact that I don’t think Sony sent out that screener to the voting membership of SAG. Sony is also losing its’ headquarter building in Manhattan. 550 Madison. The beautiful Phillip Johnson-designed stunner that once-upon-a-time was the AT&T building. They’ve got bigger problems, obviously, then sorting out ZDT’s Awards’ chances.

Which I think is going to leave Jessica Chastain out in the cold.

Losing to most likely Jennifer Lawrence in”Silver Linings Playbook”, if Harvey Weinstein has his way. Or to Naomi Watts, if he doesn’t.

I think HW WILL prevail in the Best Supporting Actor category with Robert DeNiro, who has never won a SAG award, believe it or not.(His best work pre-dates SAGs Awards) And that would be also for “Silver Linings Playbook.” Are we seeing a pattern form here?

And lastly Anne Hathaway for Best Supporting Actress for “Les Miserabales” is as locked as Christopher Plummer was last year for HIS first ever Oscar win at age 82 for “Beginners.”

Best Ensemble ~ I HOPE it’s “Les Mis” but it just might be “Argo” like the BFCA and the Golden Globes, or it could be “Silver Linings Playbook.” THAT one’s a real toss-up.

More predictive is the PGA on Sat.

Will I live-blog the SAGs on Sunday? Probably. Do check in.

Producers Guild Award Nominees A DAY EARLY!

With the Oscars themselves experiencing technical difficulties with their new on-line voting system, the Producers Guild, or the PGA, decided to one-up them and announced their nominees a DAY EARLY! Everyone wants to be first!

Thanks to Oscar Goddess Sasha Stone at http://www.awardsdaily.com for this comprehensive list ~
PRODUCERS GUILD NOMINATIONS

Argo” (Warner Bros.)
Producers: Ben Affleck, George Clooney, Grant Heslov

“Beasts of the Southern Wild” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Producers: Michael Gottwald, Dan Janvey, Josh Penn

“Django Unchained” (The Weinstein Company)
Producers: Reginald Hudlin, Pilar Savone, Stacey Sher

“Les Misérables”
(Universal Pictures)
Producers: Tim Bevan & Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward, Cameron Mackintosh

Life of Pi” (Fox 2000 Pictures)
Producers: Ang Lee, Gil Netter, David Womark

“Lincoln” (Touchstone Pictures)
Producers: Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg

“Moonrise Kingdom” (Focus Features)
Producers: Wes Anderson & Scott Rudin, Jeremy Dawson, Steven Rales

Silver Linings Playbook” (The Weinstein Company)
Producers: Bruce Cohen, Donna Gigliotti, Jonathan Gordon

“Skyfall” (Columbia Pictures)
Producers: Barbara Broccoli, Michael G. Wilson

Zero Dark Thirty” (Columbia Pictures)
Producers: Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Megan Ellison

Not really shocked by any of these nominations except to note the “Beasts of the Southern Wild” got in (YAY!) and “Moonrise Kingdom” did, too! (Boo)

However “Skyfall” too was a bit of surprise. But I knew that “The Dark Knight Rises”, “The Avengers” and “The Master” as well as “Amour” were NEVER going to make it in.”Fllght” not getting in was also a surprise. And this could also indicate the Denzel Washington, the star of “Flight” could also be left at the Oscar altar this year.

“Amour” is NOT liked as much by the Industry types, as I’ve been saying for MONTHS, as opposed to critics who are putting it at the top of their lists. AND it’s in French. AND it’s a downer about D.E.A.T.H. It MAY get nominated for Best Foreign Film from Austria, but it could even get shut out there. It’s on the short list.

“The Master”s not making this list is no surprise to me. The movie is NOT LIKED. AND it didn’t make any money. This also may eliminate two if not all three of its’ major actors. Which would mean no Joaquim(Dirty Carrot) Phoenix, Amy(she’s been nominated enough already, 3x in this category, and they know she won’t win this year either)Adams for a pallid perfomance as Phillip Seymour Hoffman’s strange, always-pregnant wife. And yes, even maybe the great PSH himself might miss out on a nod for Best Supp. Actor. He’s the only one who’s still got a little life in his Oscar dance now, I think.

This helps ALLLLL the other films. And yes, with this early move the PGA IS trying to influence Oscar voters, who still haven’t voted.

And it especially helps, on the cusp of being eliminated “Beasts of the Southern Wild” YAY!

Oscar Gets “Amour”

Well, this certainly is news! Austria has decided that “Amour” is going to be its’ official submission to the Best Foreign Film race this coming Oscar season. Since it’s by a German director, who I LOVE, Michael Haneke, and maybe it’s German-Austrian financed although the two octogenarian leads,  who are winning raves, act in French, this makes “Amour” kosher. And definitely eligible for a Best Foreign Film nomination and perhaps win.

This is despite Jeffrey Wells at www.hollywood-elsewhere.com not liking a whole hell of a lot.

And to top that off Sony Pictures Classics is deciding to open it in Dec. RIGHT in the heat of the Oscar season. I know, I know. It’s freezing in New York at that time of year, and this is hardly your Christmas-y picture. But SPC, as I’ll now call them, are throwing down the Oscar gauntlet(is that a mixed metaphor?) going full court press with this one.

Although Michael Haneke only gives interviews in German, and the two stars are yes-for-real are in their 80s. But have Oscar buzz will travel. So we’ll be seeing them, Jean-Louis Trintignant and Emmanuelle Riva stateside around the holidays. Or at least I will be seeing them, I hope, in their press tour.

I love SPC’s taste in movies. Last year,  they had “Midnight in Paris” and while it got a bunch of nominations in many categories and won in Best Original Screenplay, they did not move any of the many wonderful performers in that movie from the sidelines to center stage. Like for instance, Corey Stoll as Hemingway, Marion Cotillard as the Muse of many centuries and Kathy Bates as Gertrude Stein. Not to mention Owen Wilson’s, astonishing lead performance and Rachel McAdams as his blonde bitch of a fiancée.

Although Owen did get a Golden Globe nomination in the Musical or Comedy category, he lost out to Jean Dujardin for “The Artist.” And who could’ve stopped THAT express train once it left the station???

I can’t stand Wes Anderson movies, so I only go to them, if dragged so I haven’t seen “Moonrise Kingdom” yet. But I guess I’ll have to at some point. I hate when straight men try to do camp. Which is basically what his great “Style” is. Stolen from the Homosexual Handbook. I ought to know. I helped write it back in The Day.

And tomorrow I’m actually going to see “Beasts of the Southern Wild.”  I’ll let you know if I think all the who-ha at Sundance and Cannes was justified.

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