a.k.a. "The Oscar Messenger"

Posts tagged ‘Lincoln’

Oscar Thoughts Pre-TIFF ~”August:Osage County” Out in Front

For those of you who MUST know what’s going on Oscarwise Pre-TIFF, it’s pretty clear to me. TIFF is absolutely essential to next year’s Oscar Winner. It is THEEE premiere Oscar launch pad, no question.

Last year, I remember being told there were TWO films I absolutely could not get into if I missed their Press & Industry or P&I screenings, which I
did. Those are the screenings, I, as an accredited journalist, are SUPPOSED to legitmately attend, and didn’t. I missed them both. They were “Argo” and “The Master” and of course, “Argo” won the Oscar.

That’s a pretty good indicator to me. And in recent years past, “The Artist” started there. And the year before that “The King’s Speech” which ended up winning the Audience Award there. That’s a pretty damn good average…and it continues to hold, I’m thinking.

All the major Oscar contenders are heading there “August:Osage County” main among them. And yes, it’s the Weinstein Co.AGAIN. It’s being shown there and only there before Thanksgiving screenings begin around its’ release date.

This is the classic pattern that both Weinstein winners TKS and TA followed exactly. To a “T” Why fix something that isn’t broken, thinks Harvey Weinstein, I’m so sure.

Sasha Stone posits at the always excellent www.awardsdaily.com that Telluride figures into this, too, but never having been there, I can’t say as surely as she can, who goes there every year now.

But she’s right in that even “The King’s Speech” started there. Not Toronto. It only preceeded it by a few days, but still. 

I’ll never forget future Oscar winning director Tom Hooper telling me the excitement he, Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush all felt sitting together in the dark at Telluride and they’re sensing the audience’s excitement. By Toronto, it was totally clear to me that it had already won the race. And it did.

New York has had the dubious distinction of recent years in invariably opening the film that comes in SECOND.
“The Life of Pi”, “The Social Network”, “Lincoln”, “Hugo” and with Tom Hanks’ new vehcile “Capt. Phillips,” it looks like that my happen again. In fact, I think you can count on it.

The Industry Poo-Bahs have all decided that Toronto and TIFF are IT as far as Oscar is concerned and I bet every Oscar strategist out there will agree. Of course, Toronto is very risky. It can also sink a  film’s chances, too. It’s a risk you run, and it’s a brutal, competitive, bloody race, this Oscar dash to the finish line.

Which this year isn’t until MARCH btw. So it’s a long race this year too.

Having seen “August:Osage County” on the Broadway stage THREE times, I would place my bet on this pony, as Tom O’Neil, my idol, at www.goldderby.com would say.

I can tell you with surety though, that Harvey Weinstein will schedule an 8:45am press & industry screening at Toronto and that I will line up an hour early to get in. For “The King’s Speech” I remember getting up at 5:30AM to get to the inconveniently located theater on time. AND I was FIRST ON LINE! And the first one in  It was thrilling. And I’m betting I do it all over again for “August:Osage County.”

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Oscar to Spread the Wealth! Final Predictions in All Categories!

I think Oscar is going to spread his love all over many movies on Sunday night at the Dolby pavillion, and there’s going to be at least one major upset. Read below.

This is NOT who I WANT to win, but who I think will win. Never did ALLLLL the categories before, but FINALLY this year, I think I can.

Best Picture ~  Argo ~ Slam Dunk. It even just won Best Foreign Film at the Cesars, France’s Oscars. Does any one else even have a chance? Would be the ultimate shock if that happened.

Best Actor – Daniel Day Lewis. Does anyone else have a chance? No. Wish it was Hugh Jackman, but…

Best Actress- Jennifer Lewis ~ She’s Hollywood’s future. Young, beautiful, shapely, funny. She’s got it all. A last-minute surge of Emmanuelle Riva for “Amour” is not gonna be enough. I think not enough people saw it. Believe it or not. But they ALLLL saw “Silver Linings Playbook.”

Best Supporting Actress ~Anne Hathaway. “Les Miz” Slam dunk. See Daniel Day-Lewis.

Best Supporting Actor ~ Robert De Niro “Silver Linings Playbook” He’s got the Weinstein Co. behind him full force. If for some unforseeable upset in Best Actress, meaning Riva OR Qu’venzhane Wallis(my pick. I would vote for her. I WOULD!) getting R. De Niro his third Oscar is where “Silver Linings Playbook” will prevail. It just went of $100 million just this past week.
But if ALAN ARKIN wins here for “Argo” you KNOW that “Argo” is going to win everything it’s nominated for, which it might. It’s not just gonna win Best Picture.

<p>Best Director ~ Ang Li “Life of Pi” Beautiful film, best use ever of 3D, and degree of difficulty make this a second Best Director win for the much loved director of “Brokeback Mountain”. That terrible night when “Brokeback” lost to “Crash” may make Ang Li winning again, a KIND of Karmic pay-back. Same thing happened to the late Heath Ledger, but he was gone, tragically, when he won for “The Dark Knight.” I just feel Heath steering Ang’s boat to shore here.

Best Original Screenplay ~ Michael Hanke “Amour” I think this is the big win for “Amour” like it was for Pedro Almodovar for “Talk to Her” a few years back.

Best Adapted Screenplay -Chris Terrio for “Argo”.Again. It’s going to be an “Argo” kind of night.

Best Cinematography – Claudio Mirando for his beautiful work in “Life of Pi”

Best Visual Effects- Again, “Life of Pi”

Best Costumes -Jacqueline Duran “Anna Karenina” Wish it was going to win more. Another beautiful, beautiful film that wasn’t appreciated as much as it should’ve been.

Best Production Design ~ “Les Miserables” ANOTHER Beautiful film that didn’t get its’ due. I’ve seen it FOUR times! It’s nominated for Best Picture, so I think it will win this category, which used to be called Best Art Direction. They like them big and dressy and period in this category.

Best Film Editing ~ William Goldenberger  for “Argo”. He also edited much of “Zero Dark Thirty” which I don’t think it going to get anything, unfortunately. Too much controversy.

Best Song ~ “Skyfalll” and Adele will blow the roof off the play. Especially if this loses to “Suddenly” from “Les Miz.

Best Score – Alexandre Desplat “Argo” AGAIN.

Best Sound Editing ~ “Argo” AGAIN.

Best Sound Mixing-“Les Miserables” No contest. The live singing was brilliantly mixed!That’s Sound Editing at its best. And how it was blended, later with a 60 piece orchestra! Incredible!

Best Animated Short – “Paperman” Disney’s first black-and-white cartoon since when? “Steamboat Willy”?

Best Live Action Short – “Buzkahshi Boys” The actual Afghan locations and child actors are breathtaking and heartbreaking. Revelatory. And director Sam French is a director/Rock-Star in the making. Alternately, it could be the only film in English, “Curfew” set in New York City. Which is the light-er funny one here. Sometimes that wins this. But who has heard the Afghan language actually as spoken dialogue in a film?

Best Documentary – SHOULD be “Invisible War” but probably will be the very popular “Searching for Sugar Man.”

Best Doc Short “Open Heart”

Best Animated Feature ~ “Wreck It Raplph”

And the biggest surprise upset? Could be if “Amour” does NOT win Best Foreign Film, yes! It could happen! And it goes instead to the feel-good high-seas adventure, Norway’s “Kon-Tiki>” How can that happen when “Amour” seems so locked and so acclaimed and awarded? It’s,as they say, a difficult sit. For “Amour” details in stark, sterile clarity the step-by-step deterioration of a Parisian married woman, Emmanuelle Riva’s acclaimed Ann, after a series of strokes. It’s NOT for the faint-of-heart, which the small, the VERY small and elderly group of Academy voters, who vote on Best Foreign Film, are noted to be.
Anyone who’s a member can vote, but they have to sign in at the screenings of ALL FIVE FOREIGN FILMS, to make sure they’ve seen them all. This also applies to Doc Shorts.

It used to be applicable to Animated and Live Action Shorts and Feature Docs, too, but for the first time this year, they’ve opened up the voting to all 6,000 Academy members and deluged them with screeners. So now, a new rule must be applied. The most popular film like “Searching for Sugar Man” is the likely win over the VERY serious “Invisible War.” Unfortunately.

That’s at least four or is it five for “Argo”? Four for “Les Miserables”,Three for “Life of Pi”,Two for “Silver Linings Playbook”,One for “Amour” and One for “Lincoln” 

 

Check back on Monday and see how right, or WRONG, I was! Have fun watching the Oscars!With “Les Miserables”, “Argo”, “Lincoln”, “Silver Linings Playbook”, “Django Unchained And “Life of Pi” alllll having past the $100 million mark at the box-office, this may be the most-watched Oscars in a very, very long time.

Video

Oscar Predictions 2012!

My final Oscar Predictions! Shot at the great Health Food Store Green Sympathy, where they named a smoothie after me “The Stephen Holt Special”! I’m assisted here by Bway producer Jayne Ackley Lynch and Kyle Shim, son of the owner of Green Symphony, Jae Shim.

And after winning the WGA (Writer’s Guild of America) Award last night, “Argo” is pretty much locked down for Best Picture and also probably Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Editor, which I didn’t discuss here…but if it really is winning in all seven categories that it is nominated for, it could sweep Alan Arkin in in Best Supporting Actor.

Talk about having Oscar Momentum!

Camera& Editing- Kevin Teller

Qu’venzhane’s Best Actress Oscar Upset?

The one thing NOBODY is taking in to consideration in the now very competitive Best Actress Oscar race is the fact that NOBODY in that category has yet to compete against its’ youngest ever nominee, the now 9-year-old dynamo that is Qu’venzhane Wallis.

As my Oscar Idol Tom O’Neil keeps saying over at http://www.goldderby.com and I quote “Oscar likes Little Girls.” And historically, he’s right. Patti Duke? Tatum O’Neal?Anna Pacquin? Anyone? But they all won in Supporting. If Qu’venzhane was in Supporting, she just might win. But the Academy wisely nominated her in lead Actress which is where her astonishing performance belongs. A six-year-old carrying this entire movie? It was astounding! I’ve never seen a better performance by a child actor, or actress. She was unforgettable.

But she’s not gone up against the other ladies ANYwhere. So there’s no telling what havoc she might wreck. Jennifer Lawrence is the presumed front-runner for “Silver Linings Playbook.” But just this Sunday she showed surprising weakness at the BAFTAS in London when she lost to 85-year-old Emmanuelle Riva for “Amour.” But Qu’venzhane was not nominated for a BAFTA.

In fact, the Academy Award is the first serious Best Actress race she has competed in, against these women.

Well, yes, she did win Best Young Actor(or Actress) from the Broadcast Film Critics. I think she got Best Breakthrough Actress from the National Board of Review. And she won something similar from the Hollywood Film Awards.

And she’s charmed EVERYONE with her acceptance speeches. She irresistible. And Oscar likes to SURPRISE. And this would be a surprise!

It’s so boring that we all know “Argo” is going to win Best Picture(but deserving), and especially boring that Daniel Day-Lewis for “Lincoln” and Anne Hathaway for “Les Miserables” (who deserves it) are going to continue their march to the podium.

Jennifer Lawrence is also very young, 22, but Qu’venzhane is 9, and she did “Beasts of the Southern Wild” when she was six.

Exhibit A for Qu’venzhane ~ Everybody now pronounces her name correctly.
And Exhibit B – They also have learned to SPELL it correctly.

Tom O’Neil and Pete Hammond of http://www.deadline.com joked about her name in many early podcasts, but they are not laughing now. Calling her Miss Unpronounceable. They are NOT saying that anymore. In fact, BOTH have learned to say her name correcly, and say it with respect.

Exhibit C – The Academy liked “Beasts of the Southern Wild” enough to nominate it for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress and Best Adapted Screenply.

Benh Zeitlin has just turned 30 and he ALSO ranks as one of the youngest directors to ever be nominated, too, btw.

Some people feel a child that young’s performance is not an acting performance, it’s a manipulation of the child by the director. Hence Zeitlin’s wonderful, surprising nom.

Best Director is really the most up-in-the-air category of any of the Oscars this year. Since Ben Affleck was snubbed famously for “Argo.” We know he’s not winning? But who is? Zeitlin?

And I have this really strong suspicion that, well, a certainty, really, as an Oscarologist of LONNNNNNNG standing…that “Beasts” is going to win something big. It could be Zeitlin. It could be Qu’venzhane Wallis.

Jennifer Lawrence has her youth, her beauty, TWO multi-million dollar franchises “The Hunger Games” and “X-Men” behind her AND she’s got Harvey Weinstein and his super-effective TWC publicity machine behind her. They got surprisingly THREE BAFTAS in places that weren’t expected. Christopher Waltz for Supporting Actor for “Django Unchained” and Quentin Tarantino for Original Screenplay. QT could repeat that feat at the Oscars, since he also was snubbed for Best Director along with Affleck, Tom Hooper and Kathryn Bigelow.

AND he also got David O.Russell Best Adapted Screenplay for “Silver Linings Playbook” at the BAFTAS which nobody expected either.

Of those three wins, I think Tarantino is most likely to score at the Oscars. Mainly because Harvey is pushing Robert De Niro like CRA-ZEE here in the States for the sympathetic Italian father in “Silver Linings.” It’s been DECADES since De Niro won his last Oscar for “Raging Bull.” So I think he’ll score this VERY competitive race for Best Supporting Actor.

And “Silver Linings Playbook” is being advertised to death on TV and all the players, all four of the leads are nominated in all four acting categories and have been omnipresent on your and my TVs.

Qu’venzhane, well, she’s been around, but she’s also in school, and her responsible family wants to keep her there as long as 4th grade is in session.Or is it third?

Also, Jennifer Lawrence SHOULD have won in London. Harvey was working his magic, as I said, but the Weinsteining only went so far. It didn’t stop “Argo” Awards march and Jennifer Lawrence lost to Emmanuelle Riva.

Emmanuelle Riva is beyond brilliant and totally memorable in “Amour,” but I keep hearing that Academy members can’t watcn it on their DVDs. It’s about Octogenarians coping with death, basically, and it’s just too much, too depressing for many.

But they’ve all watched “Beasts of the Southern Wild” and Oscar likes to do something that not everybody else has done in terms of a winner, and Qu’venzhane would certainly be that. She’d make history, too, as the youngest ever Best Actress Oscar winner and also as only the second African-American winner in that category EVER.

As Tom O’Neil is constantly saying “It’s which one is not like the other ones. It’s the Apple in a bag of Oranges.” And Qu’venzhane fits THAT description to a “T”

Last week she was one of the covers of Entertainment Weekly’s Oscar issue and she’s also on Vanity Fair’s Oscar cover banging away on a set of drums!

The Academy is constantly being accused of racism, especially after Viola Davis’s loss to Meryl Streep last year. That was Harvey at work, yet again. I think there’s a verb now. I’ll call it Weinsteining if anybody else hasn’t already.

And Oscar likes little girls.

And they like “Beasts of the Southern Wild.”

And y’know something else? Everyone is underestimating her. But any time any one says her name on TV now, or anywhere, they SMILE.

If I was voting this year, she’s the one I’d vote for.

Emmanuelle Riva is frail and didn’t make it to the BAFTAS and is even now using a walker and may not be able to make that lonnnnng flight to LA. So there’s the fear of a no-show.

Qu’venzhane Wallis will make the MOST adorable speech ever.

You can see me interviewing her this past June when she was 8 on my You Tube Channel http://www.youtube.com/StephenHoltShow and I ask her about the Oscars and you can see her charming response. She didn’t know what an Oscar was, BTW.

Last time I saw Qu’venzhane was at the Gotham Awards. It was outside at night, as I was leaving and she was SIGNING AUTOGRAPHS! To a bunch of screaming fans! Her mother Qu’lendrea was there and I noted to her that Qu’venzhane had gotten quite tall, since I had seen her last in June. She shooting up fast. And I said to her Mom, “Is she all right?” And she said, “Yes,” and I said “How is she taking all this?” And she said “She’s fine.”

Then she tapped Qu’venzhane firmly on the shoulder and pointed to me. Qu’venzhane remembered me! And smiled and curtsied to me.

I would vote for HER.

Maybe the all-too-serious actor’s branch of AMPAS wouldn’t. But the REST of the 4,500 membership, the infamous all male “steak-eaters” as Anne Thompson calls them just might.I call them the “SWORM”, the straight white old rich men, who are the majority of the Academy. Yeah, I can see THEM voting for Qu’venzhane.

British Oscars, the BAFTAS ~ What will they mean? If anything…

So tomorrow over in Blighty, the BAFTAs will be announced. The last major precursor award before the Oscars themselves, which are held on Feb.24.

Being socked in and basically locked in by the Blizzard of 2013, gives one time to really ruminate on the BAFTAS. It’s broadcast live in London, but here it can only be seen online. Check out http://www.awardsdaily.com to see if it’s live streaming there, or if not, they will tell you what, where and when to find it.

So, who’s going to win at the BAFTAS? And will they mean anything at all to Oscar?
Like, for instance, Robert De Niro isn’t nominated for Best Supporting Actor for “Silver Linings Playbook.” I think De Niro has the momentum at the Oscars, but since he’s not nominated, then who? Some say German actor Christophe Waltz for “Django Unchained,” why? Because he’s a European,Then there’s the other nominees from the states Tommy Lee Jones for “Lincoln”, Phillip Seymour Hoffman for “The Master” and Alan Arkin for “Argo.”

They’ve nominated Ben Affleck for BOTH Best Actor AND Best Directorand also “Argo” for Best Picture! So they really like “Argo,” and I suspect it will prevail in both picture and Director, but if Ben Affleck wins Best Actor! LOOK OUT!

He’s up of course against Daniel Day-Lewis for “Lincoln”, who may be the only BAFTA winner for “Lincoln” since Steven Spielberg isn’t even nominated here! But on the other hand, OTOH, as they say in Internet-speak, if DDL doesn’t win here and either Affleck or Hugh Jackman does, this could be the last nail in the boring, talky “Lincoln”s coffin. Hey! It could happen!

Likewise a win for Alan Arkin for “Argo” could signal a sweep is going on and that’s what’s going to happen the rest of the night.

But since the Weinstein monkeys are working like cra-zee over there, they’ve still got two entrants in Supporting Actor, PSH for “The Master” and Waltz for “Django Unchained”, so either could win. As in American, Supp. Actor at the BAFTAs is really too close to call. Although that’s what I’m supposed to do. So I’ll call it for Waltz, simply because it’s another Harvey Weinstein situation there.

And Anne Hathaway has best supporting actress sewn up there, for “Les Miserables” mais oui, as she has it here.

But Best Actress is really the one to watch. If 85-year-old Emmanuelle Riva wins for the French language film “Amour” over Jennifer Lawrence for “SLP” and Jessica Chastain for “Zero Dark Thirty,” that win and Riva’s acceptance speech could really impact the Best Actress race here. But then again, if she doesn’t show up. But still wins anyway, it probably will not have the same impact, as if the still comely octogenarian French icon wins, is there to accept, and moves every one to tears, as she probably will, with a lovely French-accented acceptance speech.

Remember that BAFTA is really where Marion Cotillard, also acting in French in a French-speaking film “La Vie En Rose”, won, and moved the whole world with HER acceptance speech, setting herself up very nicely for her Oscar win a few weeks later.

This is prime Oscar voting time, the balloting being opened only YESTERDAY, Friday. And who watches the BAFTAS? Well, the Academy members who are still undecided about who to vote for in tumultuous races, like this year’s Best Actress assuredly is.

So I guess you could reduce this all to say “How many awards will ‘Argo’ win?” and who wins Best Actress? Riva, Lawrence or even Chastain? We shall very soon see.

SAG Awards ~ A Summation

SO I watched “Downton Abbey” Episode 4 and I’m soooo glad I did! OMG! OMG! Can’t reveal anything now, but it is just…well, WOW! Powerful…I’ll write about it later…OMG…

MEANWHILE back on TBS a very sick Jennifer Lawrence was winning Best Actress for “Silver Linings Playbook” which I missed. But “Downton” ended five minutes early, and so I turned from PBS back to TBS and saw a very suave and satisfied Daniel Day-Lewis ascending the stage amidst applause. He had just clearly won for “Lincoln.” He gave a nice speech. Guess he’s going to win his third Oscar after all…but THEN…

Jude Law came out, also not looking well, and he announced that the winner of the Best Ensemble Award was “ARGO!”!!!!!!! Soooo happy to hear that! After what I just went through on Episode 4 of “Downton” I needed a lift! And it was very moved when “Argo” won and Ben Affleck was soooooo happy! And I was happy for him. SAG has a heart. And they bought the “poor Ben” story as Oscar Goddess Sasha Stone called it in a great piece at http://www.awardsdaily.com

It was really one of the best pieces she’s written on this season.And she says that the winning Oscar story is now “poor Ben” and wow! Is she right-on about that!

But Poor Ben was Happy Ben onstage at the SAGS tonight. He was practically dancing! This means that “Argo,” which he was famously snubbed for Best Director for two weeks ago, is now most likely going to win the Oscar for Best Picture. It won the PGA last night, and now this BIG WIN from the Actor’s Guild! Outtasight! I was sooo happy for him!

And of course, check out the other Happy Man Jeff Wells, who I thought I saw fly over the moon, with this news which he writes VERY well about over at wwww.hollywood-elsewhere.com.

“Lincoln” was supposed to win this tonight, and yes, it did get two awards. Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor for Tommy Lee Jones, who didn’t even show up.

I think four of these winners will repeat on Oscar night. “Argo” for Best Picture, Anne Hathaway for Best Supporting Actress for “Les Miz”and Daniel Day-Lewis for Best Actor for “Lincoln.” Qu’venzhane Wallis is in the mix at the Oscars as she wasn’t tonight at the SAGS and neither was Emmanuelle Riva, BTW, for “Amour.” But Jennifer Lawrence has Harvey Weinstein behind her, and like Meryl Streep’s out-of-left-field win last year for “The Iron Lady,” he’ll do the same thing for Jennifer and she’s winning everything anyway. It’s a cake walk for him this year with Jennifer.

I think it’s safe to say that with Phillip Seymour Hoffman winning the BFCA award(Which he wasn’t there to pick up), Christophe Waltz winning the Golden Globe( which he WAS there to make a strange speech, with Tommie Lee Jones GLOWERING) then with Jones winning tonight at the SAGS and him NOT being there to accept, I think it’s safe to say that Supporting Actor is still a toss-up.

But everything else now seems locked down and sealed up “Argo”, Daniel Day-Lewis, Jennifer Lawrence and Anne Hathaway.Done!

SAG Awards ~ Best Supp. Actor & Actress!

Best Male Actor in A Supporting Role! Bang! They’re getting right to it!Nicole Kidman in a black dress with a very weird top. Tommy Lee Jones! And he isn’t even there! I guess he had it after the Golden Globes when he lost to Christophe Waltz then scowled through the rest of the show so frighteningly he ended up being lampooned on Saturday Night Live.At last Lincoln won SOMEthing. And he’s not even there to pick it up! Means he thought he wasn’t going to.

Jennifer Lawrence and Bradley Cooper announce the clip from “Silver Linings Playbook.” Jennifer doesn’t look well and seems very as I said subdued, a bit shaky.And PALE in the close-up.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role ~ ANNE HATHAWAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Nice speech. Humble. “I want to thank my mother for voting for me. Or she better’ve!”
Started with a bad joke “At Least I get dental” or something like that about dental.
Lovely cocktail dress with what looked like a hundred pinafores under it.Black, again, the color of the night. Sparkly. They didn’t get her on the E! Channel Pre-show, so I don’t know who the designer was but I’m sure we’ll be hearing about it for WEEKS!

She thanked her father “for marrying an actress and for bringing up an actress. It was a very dramatic household.” She was channeling Audrey Hepburn a bit, I thought. Or trying to. She seemed to get more applause and also cheers as Justin Timberlake in a very sharp suit read out the five nominees names out.

Two of the big awards within the first fifteen minutes! This has never happened before. Now they switch to the boring TV awards.

I’m torn between staying with this and not missing Ep.4 of “Downton Abbey”! I’ll stick with this I guess until nine.

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