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Posts tagged ‘La La Land’

FINAL SAG Predictions! Each Film Will Win ONE Award

manchester-by-the-sea-92-emma-stonesI have to get this out as soon as possible. It’s SUCH a cut and dried year that it’s almost like typing blindfold. OF COURSE, Casey Affleck is going to win Best Actor tomorrow night at the SAG Awards. He’s won everything else. And it IS a great affecting performance that stays with you. It is also the most courageous depiction of grief I’ve ever seen in a major motion picture. He’ll win here because I think the SAG ensemble prize is going elsewhere. No, it’s not the 14 time Oscar nominee “La La Land”. It wasn’t even nominated!

But I think it’s leading lady, Emma Stone will win Best Actress. If they like “La La Land” and evidently they do, Emma in Best Actress is the only place they can vote for LLL. The same with “Manchester”. Casey Affleck will win big, because it’s not possible to vote for him or “Manchester by the Sea” anywhere else in this group of Awards.

Also, remember it’s a VERY American voting body. It’s the Actor’s of America voting so foreigners need not apply.

Viola Davis is the most mortal of locks for Best Supporting Actress for “Fences.” She’ll repeat her Broadway triumph here.

It’s a little trickier as we go on. So far we have one for “Manchester by the Sea”, Casey Affleck and one for “La La Land” Emma Stone, We have one for “Fences” which will be Viola Davis.

Then we run into the problem so who will win Best Supporting Actor. Will it be Mahershala Ali for “Moonlight” or Patel for “Lion”? Given that I think SAG is in a -spread-the-wealth mood. If Mahershala wins for his compassionate drug dealer then “Moonlight” won’t also win Best Ensemble. They might want to give “Moonlight” Best Ensemble(and it truly IS an ensemble). Then another actor of color would win Supporting which would be Dev Patel. If they liked “Lion” and the Weinsteins, this is the only category where they can vote for him.

So, if early in the evening, Patel wins in Supporting, then you can be sure that “Moonlight” will walk away with ensemble

But if it’s Mahershala Ali, who wins then the top award, their version of Best Picture, will go to another racially themed film, the box-office blockbuster “Hidden Figures” which has been surging during the voting period.

So therefore SAG will feel they’ve been fair to all. “Everyone has won and all  shall have prizes” cried the Dodo in “Alice Through the Looking Glass.

#SAG Awards #Final Predictions, #Casey Affleck, #Best Actor, # La La Land

 

 

 

 

Why Casey Affleck Will Win Best Actor Oscar.

If I was an AMPAS voter, I think it’s just between my two favorite movies (alas, not “Jackie” evidently..sadly…)”La La Land”casey-affleck-adand “Manchester by the Sea”. Initiallly, if I were a voter, I would’ve just said “Yes!” to La Land’s bounce and bouyancy all the way, but now that I’ve had time to mull it over, if I were an Academy member, I might put down “Manchester by the Sea”as my #1 film, because it has gravitas. “La La Land” doesn’t. Not really.

And Casey Affleck’s incredible performance! Imagine how different that film would be if Matt Damon, the originally intended lead, did indeed do it. I don’t think I could ever imagine Sunny Matt as a Hot Mess. And Casey Affleck plays the conflicted male loser so believably…I mean, he really puts you in the mindset of someone who’s killed, accidentally, but I mean, I’m not going to spoil it any further… The unfathomable despair of those deaths…. It’s almost unbearable. It’s unthinkable. BUT HE BEARS IT. He survives the unimaginable, which is the point of the whole film I think,manchester-art-direction

And Kenneth Lonergan, the filmmaker, is a great under-sung America playwright, has done just that. Put the unthinkable on screen and says “Here. This is what life is about. Multiple losses. Deal with it.” And the audience and Affleck’s character, in fact, the whole of New England village Manchester itself is still grappling with the ramifications of what he did. “Manchester” is a movie that ABOUT something. It’s profound. But it’s also profoundly, unexpectedly funny, but that is its’ genius.

Surviving something you thought you’d never be able to survive. Like this past election….And still having a battered, but intact sense of humor and decency. He’s still alive. He struggles, but he goes on living. As Beckett said in “Waiting for Godot”, “I can’t go on….I go on.”

Affleck is playing one of the most original characters ever written for the screen, in that sense. And he’s won over 30 acting awards already! He’ll win BAFTA in a walk. The Brits go for the serious, the heavy(see “Hamlet”) and if he wins SAG, too! Bob’s your uncle, as the Cockneys say.manchester-by-the-sea-8

I did not like Denzel Washington, over-acting in “Fences,” is his only credible competition in the Best Actor category, but Washington did not get nominated for a BAFTA either as director or actor.  Another big snub. And he lost the Golden Globe to Affleck. And he wasn’t named as one of the five directors in the DGA.

Both, though, will get nominations on Jan.24. The next big test will be at SAG. If Affleck wins that, the game is over.

#Casey Affleck

# Best Actor Oscar

#Manchester by the Sea

# Kenneth Lonergan

  • [This article was originally  a post in the comments section of http://www.awardsdaily.com, but I thought it was too good not to reprint (and re-write it) here. Thanks as always to Awardsdaily.]
  • BAFTA noms out! La La Land Leads with 11. Aaron Taylor-Johnson nominated AGAIN!

    aaron-taylor-johnson-winning-golden-globeWell, the nominations for the BAFTAs, the British equivalent of the Academy Awards, were announced in the middle of the night(EST) last night and it’s no surprise to anyone that “La La Land” leads the pack once again, dancing off with 11 nominations, more than any other film and also being nominated in every single category it possibly could be.la-la-land-7A REAL surprise that it was followed in the nominations with “Nocturnal Animals” at nine. The divisive Tom Ford thriller is going to sound familiar from the Golden Globes because it was Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s upset win in Best Supporting Actor was the first bombshell of the night in a night of bombshells. Taylor-Johnson is playing a serial killer in this dark film, which I’m now predicting will do better with the Academy later this month than people, or pundits, heretofore expected.

    In Supporting Actor, he’s once again up against Hugh Grant for “Florence Foster Jenkins”, Dev Patel(who is really the lead) for “Lion. All these three gentlemen are Brits btw. Mahershala Ali, who WAS the front-runner and good ole boy Jeff Bridges playing a tired and retiring Texas detective in “Hell or High Water.”aaron-taylor-johnson-4Also in play is the very young Lucas Hedges who dazzles in my fave, “Manchester by the Sea” which racked up six noms. Best picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay, Best Actor, Casey Affleck(who I think will win this, once again, for his haunting, haunted performance as Lee Chandler[he’s won everything else])Best Supporting Actress Michelle Phillips and Best Newcomer, Lucas Hedges. Best Newcomer is a category that the Academy doesn’t have, so to get a nomination for his incredible, funny heart-breaking lost teenager, he’d have to be nominated as Supporting by the Academy. Perhaps he will. I hope he does.

    manchwarwe-by-the-sea-6michelle-willilams-manchester-1Strange to note, but there was ONCE AGAIN a big snub of Denzel Washington’s performance in “Fences.” He’s NEVER been nominated for any BAFTA award in his long, long career, though his magnificent co-star Viola Davis was nominated for Best Supporting Actress. But she’s the sole nomination that “Fences” got another shocker (but not to me.)

    She and Michelle Williams will go toe-to-toe in this category. And Williams has a better shot here than she does back in American against Viola. Because the Brits just don’t have a history of honoring Black performers, believe it or not.viola-davis-fences-1

    They even snubbed Barry Jenkins for director for “Moonlight”! Though they did nominate Black British Actress the brilliant Naomie Harris and of course Mahershala Ali in the Supporting categories for “Moonlight.”

    I would say that these nominations slow down whatever momentum “Moonlight” which won Best Picture the night before last at the Globes, even though it did make the cut, unbelievably, for Best Picture. “Moonlight” got four nominations, BP, Best Original Screenplay(though the Oscars are considering it as “Adapted Screenplay) and the two Supporting nods I just mentioned.

    manchester-by-the-sea-8But Casey Affleck seems to be conquering all before him. And his complex, difficult performance of a man burdened by an overwhelming grief still haunts me to this day. But you love him for all his suffering. And he’s funny, too. I can’t wait to see “Manchester by the Sea” again.

    The big question with the BAFTAS is will they honor something light and musical like “La La Land” or will the heavy weight dramatic films and performances carry the day?

    And they also tend to vote for their own, which means Aaron Taylor-Johnson may just win, again. They really loved “Nocturnal Animals.” They even nominated Jake Gyllenhaal who wasn’t turning up anywhere, for Best Actor!

    jake-gyllenhaal-nocturnal-animalsI’ll discuss Best Actress at the BAFTAs in a subsequent post and for a complete list of the MANY nominees and categories, go, of course, to http://www.awardsdaily.com

    #BAFTAS

    #Nocturnal Animals

    #Aaron Taylor-Johnson

    #Casey Affleck

    #Manchester by the Sea

    “La La Land” Wins Best Picture. It’s Won Every Single Award tonight! 7!

    la-la-land-7“La La Land” Wins Best Film Comedy/Musical! It’s won every single solitary award that it was nominated for tonight! Every one! The Hollywood Foreign Press is not known for its’ sweeps, but tonight that’s exactly what we’ve seen,  “They like to spread it around.” “They like  to share the love” are the common phrases. Not tonight. It’s the biggest sweep I can ever remember at the Golden Globes. Will the Oscars follow suit? It not seems likely.

    The table for “20th Century Women” also looked depressed.

    # Golden Globes

    #La La Land

    # Best Film Comedy/Musical

    Emma Stone Wins Best Actress Musical/Comedy!!!Gives Beautiful Another Beautiful Speech.

    la-la-emma-1Emma Stone just won Best Performance by an Actress in a Comedy/Musical for “La La Land” and gave ANOTHER beautiful speech about being creative and having hope, which she says is what “La La Land” is all about. And it is. She was utterly lovely and if that wasn’t a solid gold audition for an Oscar, I don’t know what is.

    Not sure about that dress, though. Barely there on top, with an extremely plunging neckline, it was incredibly sparkly, as were most of tonight’s fashions, going by so fast, and with so much shine to them, all I can really remember is that Viola Davis was wearing yellow. And wearing it very well. Now the last big awards are coming up! At last!

    #Golden Globes

    #Emma Stone

    #La La Land

    #Best Picture Comedy/Musical

    Meryl Streep Makes the Globes Truly Golden w/Incredible Speech. “La La Land” Wins Best Direction!

    meryl-streep-1Meryl Streep made one of the most incredible speeches I’ve ever heard upon winning the Cecil B. deMille Lifetime Achievement Award. I’ll never forget it. It was very political against the current incoming regime. I wanted to write it all down verbatim, but I wasn’t able to, I was experiencing it so profoundly and proudly. She ended up rhyming “heart” with “Art.” Magnificent. I’m sure it will be posted everywhere.

    At the end, of course, as they cut to commercial, she got a standing ovation.

    Shots of the “Moonlight” table with all grumpy faces. They won nothing so far. And now “La La Land” has already won five. And there’s still Best Actress and Best Picture to come. Best Score, Best Song, Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical, Best Screenplay and Best Director.

    Damien Chazelle keeps getting younger and younger or more immature-looking/seeming as he keeps winning award after award. He just topped Meryl’s mind-blowing speech with another “La La Land” win.

    #Meryl Streep

    #Oscars

    #Cecil B. DeMille Lifetime Achievement

    # Damien Chezelle

    #La La Land

     

     

    Aside

    Golden Globes Live! Blogging….AARON TAYLOR-JOHNSON!!!!Wtf?!?

    aaron-taylor-johson-1Jimmy Fallon, of course, opens the show with an Opening Night stolen directly from “La La Land.” OK. Guess I would’ve done the same thing. Spoof of “City of Stars” number. Also a nominee. Except stars and assorted celebs popping out of limos,

    Fallon says his teleprompter’s broken. So he’s doing imitation of Chris Rock. Everyone in the audience does look drunk. Already. They don’t give them any food, FYI, just champagne. So they get bombed very easily.

    Everything’s a Trump joke.  Mild compared to Ricky Gervais or even Tina and Amy.

    First award of night, Best Supporting Actor given out by Ryan Reynolds and Emma Stone. First SHOCKER! Aaron Taylor-Johnson for “Nocturnal Animals”!!!NO ONE got that!!!!!

    The Hollywood Foreign Press voted that award to throw off all the pundits including me!aaron-taylor-scottI know Aaron. I interviewed him several times. He named himself, his last name after his wife, whose name is Sam. This led to one of the most hysterical interviews I ever did on my TV show.

    Will post a link as fast as I can.

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