a.k.a. "The Oscar Messenger"

Posts tagged ‘In Contention’

“Les Miz” First Preview in NYC to Cheers! Standing O! Could get historic 16 Oscar Nominations!

“Les Miserables” previewed this afternoon to a packed, cheering crowd at Lincoln Center’s Alice Tully Hall. And the reaction is ecstatic according to those who were there, applause at the end of every number, and standing ovation and cheers greeting director Tom Hooper and the cast members Anne Hathaway, Amanda Seyfried and Eddie Redmayne who were there also in attendance.

Kris Tapley at http://www.hitfix.com who was there and who has that wonderful podcast with Anne Thompson every week called Oscar Talk(but not this week) says in the comments his just-printed piece is getting that he thinks that Hugh Jackman(Jean Valjean), Russell Crowed(Javert), Anne Hathaway(Fantine), Eddie Redmayne(Marius), Amanda Seyfried(Cossette), Samantha Barks(Eponine), Sacha Baron Cohen(Thernadier) and Helena Bonham-Carter (M. Thernadier) could ALLLL get nominations.

Well, that sounds like a SAG Ensemble nod right there.(There as a screening earlier today for their nominating committee) and if Tapley is RIGHT. That’s One lead Best Actor for Jackman. THREE Supporting Actor nods of Redmayne, Crowe and Cohen and FOUR for Best Supp. Actress for Hathaway, Seyfried, Barks, and Bonham-Carter.

Well, THAT alone would be historic and mean that “Les Miz” is going to end up with a staggering number of nominations. Maybe the highest vote total ever.

Best Picture, Best Director(Hooper), Best Actor, 3 Best Supp. Actors, 4 Best Supp. Actresses, Best Original Song(They added one called “Suddenly”) Best Costumes, Best Production Design, Best Editing, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing. That’s SIXTEEN!

I’m not counting Best Score, because that has to be written directly for the screen, but this certainly was not.

Scott Feinberg at http://www.thehollywoodreporter.com is a bit more balanced than Tapley. He thinks Jackman in a very crowded Best Actor race SHOULD be nominated but may struggle to get in. And he thinks that only Hathaway is a slam-dunk in the Supporting races.

I’m just THRILLED! I can’t wait to see it!

And I bet you can’t either. It opens on Christmas Day.

Oscar Index at Movieline Keeps the Quality(& Enjoyment) Level at 100%!

All season long, Oscar season, I mean, of COURSE, I look forward every Wednesday evening to Stu Van Airsdale’s erudite, witty analysis of the preceding weeks Oscar madness on his unfailingly fun Oscar Index at www.movieline.com  It’s ACCURATE, too. Even if he doesn’t agree with MY thoughts on The Race. But that’s OK, because he is always persuasive, showing me the error of my Oscar-y ways.

And yes, he’s right on the money again with the idea that it’s “The Artist” but also, “The Help” that is on everyone’s minds. Whether I like to admit it or not.

Me? Moi? You KNOW I love “The Artist” and its’ nominated stars. And I TOLD Jean Dujardin that he was going to win The Oscar and he laughed and smiled and CHARMED his way into the 38,000 (and counting) You Tube viewers who’s enjoyed me, the Oscar Messenger, giving Jean and Berenice Bejo and Michel Hazanaviscius the Oscar News here at ~ www.youtube.com/StephenHoltShow

I haven’t been able to top that highpoint yet all season, so I’m leaving it in the main frame. The two of them, Jean and Berenice were an utterly winning couple, just as they are in the film, and no, not in real life. The beautiful Berenice is married to Michel Hazanaviscius. So her real name is Berenice Hazanaviscius. Glad she kept the Bejo. And yes, she, too was nominated for an Oscar for Best Supporting Actress, as I foretold her she would be.

So, non, it’s not “The Artist” I have issues with I just love it to pieces. And so I agree with Stu V.A. who has “The Artist”, Jean, and Michel all in their number one slots in their respective categories. It’s that I just couldn’t wrap my head around all this “Help” love.

To give Oscars to African-American women for playing MAIDS, I just think is the highest form of racial ineptitude. I think  with a black President, it’s just downright insulting, but Stu V.A. has had Octavia Spencer in his #1 position as Best Supporting Actress all season long. And I just couldn’t buy it. But now with Spencer’s wins at the BFCA, the Globes AND SAG, she seems almost a DONE deal.

I just don’t think she was THAT good in the movie. That it was not an “Academy performance” but evidently everybody except Kris Tapley, disagrees with me.

I mean, give the “Help” ONE SAG award, but not ALL THREE!!! However, that’s what’s going down.

And Viola Davis, who IS a great actress, certainly gives great speeches, too. And if there ever was one single article that may win an actress a Best Actress Oscar, it’s the poetic, persuasive, insightful, almost panegyric piece that Mark Harris just wrote in www.grantland.com this week, in his Oscarmetric section.

Viola Davis should thank HIM, because he makes the case that there was no SUBTEXT in this year’s Oscar race and that “The Help” and especially, the performance of Viola Davis COUPLED with her great speechs have created a narrative that the Academy, guilt-ridden white people all, may just indeed buy.

And it’s NOT a great picture. It’s good, at best. And yes, “The Artist” is much better…

But TWO Best Actress (lead and supporting) wins for “The Help”??? I was not convinced, but now I’m beginning to think so.

Though I still hope Michelle Williams upsets this at the BAFTAs….

Viola Davis is a great actress and she deserves all the acclaim she’s getting. But I still think it’s a Supporting performance and that Michelle Williams is better in a more difficult role in a better movie.

We’ll see what the BAFTAS have to say…

P.S. I turned on my television set this AM and who should be onscreen at “The View” but Viola Davis!!?! I thought I was seeing things. I think she’s been on “The View” AT LEAST three times previously this season! Or maybe FOUR! Somebody’s pushing this to the max. That would be Disney/Dreamworks. Also means they are REALLY sweating Harvey Weinstein’s campaigns for Meryl Streep for “The Iron Lady” and Michelle Williams for “My Week with Marilyn.”

Does this mean V. Davis is being OVER-exposed? And god forbid, pushy? I am the first to say that she’s a great American actress and deserves her time in the sun, and she certainly seemed to be enjoying it. What did she have to say? Well, I just caught my major role model Barbara Walters saying “It’s always great to have you here on the ‘The View’, Viola.” And then they signed out!

I think this cuts both ways. It’s good to keep her in the public(and the Academy’s) eye. And yes, I’m sure they watch “The View” or at least the female members do. Which means that Disney/Dreamworks is targeting the female Academy voters. Of whom, as you all know, there aren’t very many! So they are fighting over the Streep-aged demographic. But this shows they are really sweating a Streep win? But who are THE MEN, the bulk of the Academy membership voting for?? That’s what I’d like to know. And again, my guess is the beauteous Michelle Williams as Marilyn Monroe. The Babe Factor still rules Hollywood, I’m so sure. Will the Academy’s left-y social conscience trump the Beautiful Young Nude Girl syndrome. We shall see.

Only the Actor’s Branch overlaps with the SAGS. And that by not much. It’s two different groups of people. SAG and AMPAS. One is female-filled. That would be SAG and one is male dominated and that would be AMPAS.

Chris Tapley joins Sasha Stone in Predicting TOM HOOPER to win the DGA!

NEWSFLASH! I just checked the excellent Oscar site www.incontention.com

and Chris Tapley, whose site it is, has now ALSO switched his prediction to TOM HOOPER of “The King’s Speech” to win Best Director tomorrow night at the DGA!

That is not, of course, the pre-ordained choice of LAST week, which would, of course, be David Fincher. Of “The Joy of Typing.”

This after Sasha Stone was going that way, too. On www.awardsdaily.com

And who am I to disagree? Tom Hooper! FTW!

Chris points out that the DGA ballots were just due in today, or was it yesterday? So they had the advantage (inspiration?) of knowing how the PGA went down on Sunday and the 12 Oscar nominations for the “King’s Speech” on Tuesday.

TOM HOPPER!!?!??!!!!WOOOOO-HOOO!!!!

And I’m still seeing snow flurries!

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