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Editors Noms minus PGA Noms = Best Picture Oscar Nominees

The A.C.E Nominations for their Eddie Awards were announced yesterday. Oscar Goddess Sasha Stone of http://www.Awardsdaily.com has always maintained the nominations for Best Film Editing are more important than basically every other nominations when it comes to predicting and of course eventually winning, Best Picture at the Oscars.

This year I’ve tried to do a little adding and subtracting of my own here. Using the Producer’s Guild nominations of the Year’s Ten Best and minusing the A.C.E. Eddie nominees from them.

That leaves us with “American Hustle”, “Captain Phillips”, “Gravity”, “Her”, “Nebraska”, “Saving Mr. Banks”, “12 Years a Slave”, and “Wolf of Wall Street”. I think we can now safely assume that these eight films will equal this year’s Best Picture Oscar nominees.

So which Guild is stronger for the remaining “outliers” if you want to call them that. From the Eddie list, it’s “August:Osage County” and “Inside Llewyn Davis” finally turning up SOMEwhere in Guild land with Roderick Jaynes, who is the nom des plumes of both the Coen Brothers. Just FYI, the Academy’s Editing Branch doesn’t like the flim-flannery of this fictitious editor.

And the two films that got the PGA nods, but not the editors were, “Blue Jasmine” and surprisingly “Dallas Buyer’s Club.”

The Academy allows for at least five, and no more than ten nominees, which the Producer’s Guild goes for ten.

Of the remaining four films “Inside Llewyn Davis”, “Dallas Buyer’s Club”, “August: Osage County” and “Blue Jasmine” remain in Oscar Purgatory. With my guessing “Llewyn” and “Dallas” having better shots than the other two films.

The Coens have a dedicated fan base in the Academy, and despite “Llewyn”s lact of support in the other guilds, I can see it getting nominated for Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography (Bruno DelBonnell) who was just awarded for his de-saturated, wintry work by the New York Film Critics, and maybe Best Sound and Best Sound Editing, along with Best Editing(the aforementioned Roderick Jaynes) and possibly even Best Directing, too. As well as Best Picture. Never mind the musical categories…That’s actually a VERY big haul for this Little Film That Could. Only the over-crowded Best Actor field I think it’s reasonable to assume will leave the brilliant Oscar Isaac out. Though wouldn’t it be wonderful if he got in?

Where this truly leaves me scratching my head is the Big Fat Fact that means both “Her” and “Saving Mr. Banks” get in for sure for Best Picture…grrr…

And shockingly no “Philomena” ANYwhere!

Oscar Shocker! PGA nominates no Weinstein films nor “Llewyn Davis”!!!

Color me shocked! The PGA, probably the most powerful Hollywood Guild these days, in terms of being an Oscar precursor nominated ten films but NONE of them from the Weinstein Co. Harvey’s head must be exploding this morning. No “Philomena”, no “Butler”, no “Long Walk to Freedom”, no “August:Osage County.” Also no “Inside Llewyn Davis” which really bums me out, having just seen it again last night and found it exhilarating.

This means none of those films will be nominated for Best Picture, most likely. But Harvey being Harvey won’t allow this situation to remain status quo. Watch “Philomena” his strongest film kicks out “Her” my guess. And for all the possible acting nominees from all these films, this is not good news either. Forest Whitaker, Oprah,Idris Elba, Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, but probably not the great Judi Dench are all now officially on the ropes, vulnerable.

Harvey will just work harder. Which is what he does best. I can’t remember him having such a bunch o’ bad news.But nothing stops him. NOTHING. ONE of his films will get into the Academy’s top ten.

And “Llewyn”s being left out makes me very sad…

Below are the ten nominees. Thankfully “12 Years a Slave” is right where it should be. But surprisingly they nominated “The Wolf of Wall Street”!!! And the disliked “Saving Mr. Banks”!!! The power of Disney…And the super tech-y “Her” which I didn’t think would be to their taste. The Director’s Guild nominations are coming up too on Tuesday. Stay tuned.

Thanks to http://www.hitfix.com for this list ~~~And check out Kris Tapley’s EXCELLENT analysis on what all this means. Can’t wait for him and Anne Thompson to do their Oscar Talk podcast, but I’m guessing they’ll wait until after the DGA on Tuesday and BAFTA on Thursday. They’ll have one up next Friday I bet.

Kris, who like myself, is a big “Llewyn”/Oscar Isaac fan (as are Sasha Stone http://www.awardsdaily.com and Jeff Wells at http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com) thinks there’s still hope for ILD with a lot of Coen Bros. fans in the Academy. If they nominated the less relatable “A Serious Man”, they’ll nominate “Llewyn Davis.”

Here’s the list below~

“American Hustle (Columbia Pictures)
Producers: Megan Ellison, Jon Gordon, Charles Roven, Richard Suckle

Blue Jasmine (Sony Pictures Classics)
Producers: Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum

Captain Phillips (Columbia Pictures)
Producers: Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca, Scott Rudin

Dallas Buyers Club (Focus Features)
Producers: Robbie Brenner, Rachel Winter

Gravity (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Producers: Alfonso Cuarón, David Heyman

Her (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Producers: Megan Ellison, Spike Jonze, Vincent Landay

Nebraska (Paramount Pictures)
Producers: Albert Berger, Ron Yerxa

Saving Mr. Banks (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Producers: Ian Collie, Alison Owen, Philip Steuer

12 Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Producers:  Anthony Katagas, Jeremy Kleiner, Steve McQueen, Brad Pitt & Dede Gardner

“The Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount Pictures)
Producers: Riza Aziz, Emma Koskoff, Joey McFarland

 

Oscar Best Picture Race~Is It Really Down to Three?

New York’s just had its’ first major snowfall, Christmas is around the corner, and can the Oscar race for Best Picture be just down to three films already?

To judge by the major Oscar websites, it already seems a done deal. With “12 Years a Slave”, “Gravity” and unbelievably “American Hustle” being judged the only three that could. Oscar Goddess Sasha Stone has another great “State of the Race” piece and she sees it this way at http://www.Awardsdaily.com and so does Tom O’Neil at http://www.goldderby.com

But interestingly though they came to the same conclusions about THE THREE. Sasha has “12 Years a Slave” is on top, and Tom O. is sticking to “Gravity.” Me? I’m on Sasha’s side. And I hope that’s the way it plays out.

I saw “12 Years a Slave” for the THIRD time last night, and was bowled over by it all over again. It’s beauty.It’s musical score by Hans Zimmer. The cinematography, director Steve McQueen’s expert use of his large cast. There’s not a weak one among the vast ensemble. And the writing is so good! And it’s a true story!John Ridley is the screenwriting, based of course on the now best-selling book by Soloman Northrup. First published in 1856.

And Lupito Nyong’O and Chiwetel Ejiafor broke my heart all over again.

I can’t even imagine sitting through “American Hustle” Three times. Maybe to figure out its’ dense con artist plot within a plot within a plot. But not even Jennifer Lawrence’s hilarious mob wife would get me back a second time. There’s not enough hours left in my life.

“American Hustle” benefits greatly from being the new kid on the block as it were. “12 Years a Slave” and “Gravity” have been going strong since Toronto Film Festival, which is where I saw the both of them. And that’s a problem, too. Keeping the momentum going this long. Both Fox Searchlight and also Warner’s have that as a task they must fulfill.

I just  got a press release that it’s going to be re-released, though I just saw it for the third time, as I’ve said, last night. It’s made $35 million, which is no small amount of Oscar change. And the nominations are only now about to be mailed out to the membership.And of course, those all important DVD screeners.

Seeing movies on the big screen is the only way, really, to see these important films, IMHO. I saw “Her” tonight. Cute. With a small “c”. But with so many films these days being so dark and so tragic, “Her” is really a sweet, sweet love story…about a man(Joaquim Phoenix) who falls in love with his Ciri-like Operating System, voiced magnificently by the totally unseen Scarlett Johansson. It gains by comparison. It aims to be GENTLE. And it refreshingly is.

It’s a futuristic love story, but that’s all it is. Filmed in Beijing, it looks like it really HAS been shot in the future, too.

In any other year, Joaquim Phoenix’s kindly, lost, dweeb Twombly would be in the best actor race. Most of the film is ONLY shots of his face. I didn’t know if it would sustain, if he’d be that riveting, but newsflash, he is. TOTALLY different from his disturbed loner Freddie Quell from last year’s “The Master” which, yes, indeed he WAS nominated for Best Actor for. But this year Best Actor is so crowded, he hasn’t a chance to get in.

He hasn’t turned up in any of the precursor critics awards. And neither, strangely has Tom Hanks for “Saving Mr. Banks”. His Disney on Disney performance is not going down or turning up anywhere.  At least not yet.. NOBODY nominated him for this Supporting turn, whereas they ALLLLL nominated him for “Captain Phillips” as Best Lead Actor and they’ve nominated Somali newcomer Barkhad Abdi in all three major races, too. For Best Supporting Actor.

He and Daniel Bruhl  of “Rush”as well have been nominated for the SAG Award, the Golden Globe award and also the Critics choice awards, something NOBODY could have seen coming, but yet, there they are. They made the golden trifecta that you NEED to get to be nominated for an Oscar.

Oprah was left out of the Golden Globes in Best Supp. Actress for “The Butler”. So does that make her vulnerable? Or just simply unpopular with the Hollywood Foreign Press?

And Robert Redford not being nominated for a SAG award for Best Actor for “All Is Lost” is still the most shocking snub. And it WAS nominated for Best Stunt Ensemble, which is really crazy weird because HE IS the Ensemble, in this one person movie.

That, yes, can be seen as merely stunt work.And it IS incredible stunt work. For a 77-year-old man to be doing all that running (around his sinking yacht), climbing the mast, swimming with sharks…well, he’s certainly in good shape for his age. And his agility is amazing. But is that great acting? Well…

It’s also  almost totally silent.

He says one word and one word only “FUCK!!!!!” when he begins to finally sense the utter desolation of his desperate situation. IF ONLY THAT WEREN’T HIS ONLY WORD…And I thought, “Well, he’s lost the Oscar. Right there.”

In this tough field, he’ll be lucky to be nominated. And he’s not actively campaigning as the other 77-year-old in the race for Best Actor is, Bruce Dern, for “Nebraska”. He’s everywhere. In L.A. Guess he’ll be showing up in New York to pick up his National Board of Review award for Best Actor. He won that, Bruce did. And he also triumphed at the L.A. Film Critics.
But neither of them are going to win against “12 Years a Slave”s majestic powerhouse Chiwetel Ejiafor.

L. A.Film Critics also ignore “12 Years” but Award Lupita Nyong’O Best Supp.Actress

Once again. “12 Years A Slave” has been dealt a body blow in this awards’ season. The VERY influential Los Angeles Film Critics only awarded the brilliant Lupita Nyong’O, which is great news for Hollywood’s newest star, but bad news for “12 Years a Slave.” I am shocked, SHOCKED that the usually cutting-edge LA Film Crix went for “Gravity” and “Her”! In a tie! Yes! A tie!. In fact, there were three ties!

Best Picture – “Gravity” tied with “Her”.

Best Actress – Cate Blanchett tied with Adele Exarchopoulos of “Blue is the Warmest Color”

And Best Supporting actor tied :Jared Leto and James Franco for “Spring Breakers”!!!

A motley crew.

But this is a very important win for Lupita Nyong’O and congratulations to her.

But very bad news for “12 Years A Slave.” It is now officially NOT the front-runner for Best Picture anymore. I’d say “Gravity” is, if anything.

The Boston Film Critics and the New York Online Film Critics both awarded “12 Years” heavily in many categories…

Though strangely Michael Fassbender is ending up NOwhere. That’s not a good sign. And though the NYFCO and the BFC are nice to have and all that, it’s the LA Film Critics that are a one-two punch of “12 Years”, I’m sorry to say.

But looking at the all these critics awards you can see that this year’s Oscars are all over the place. Literally.

Also not turning up is Martin Scorcese’s just finished three hour “Wolf of Wall Street”. It’s still so new Jeff Wells is reporting at http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com that many in Boston did not get a screener in time. Or couldn’t make a very last minute screening.

I feel just awful for “12 Years…” It’s a masterpiece and I can’t believe that it’s anything but racism animating its” exclusion. If that’s the case and even CRITICS are shying away from advocating for it. Then the award it’s likely to win is indeed Best Supporting Actress for Lupito Nyong’O. As I’ve said before, it’s the Booby Prize of the Oscars. They look at the Best Supporting Actress award rightly or wrongly as a throw away. As a less than important category and if they are not giving “12YAS” anything else, they KNOW they have to give it something and Best Supp. Actress is a place where they will feel most comfortable awarding it.

An equivalent situation occured two years, when African-American-themed box-office winner “The Help” won ONLY Best Supporting Actress for Octavia Spenser.

So I do think the LA Film Critics is indicative in that case.

They also importantly gave Best Director to Alphonso Cuaron for “Gravity.” Steve McQueen, thank god, won the New York Film Critics Award for Best Director, but that was it.

Also notably absent from all of this was Tom Hanks and “Captain Phillips”. Nowhere to be seen. Sunk without a trace. Leaving that fifth Best Actor slot now open for maybe Oscar Isaac in “Inside Llewyn Davis” or Michael B. Jordan in “Fruitvale Station” or most likely Leonard DiCaprio for “Wolf of Wall Street.” I can’t believe I’m typing these words, but I am. “Llewyn Davis” has opened this week to doing tremendous box-office and Leo has never won an Oscar, unbelivably.

If you read Jeff Wells and Tom O’Neil over at http://www.goldderby.com , they BOTH LOVED “Wolf of Wall Street”to the max.

Cate Blanchett seems to be storming across all awards-giving bodies in Best Actress for “Blue Jasmine.” And also not registering anywhere is “Saving Mr. Banks” which I’m seeing tomorrow night.

I suffered through “Out of the Furnace” because it SEEMED Christian Bale might turn in a possibly nominatable perforrmance. But he didn’t. I didn’t see much hope for any awards for this hard-scrabble violent film.

But Emma Thompson WAS nominated for Best Actress for “Saving Mr. Banks” by the National Board of Review.

Both the NBOR AND the LA film critics gave Best Actor to Bruce Dern! For “Nebraska” And the NYFCC gave that other spry 77-year-old in the race, Robert Redford Best Actor for “All Is Lost.”

The only across the board unity seems to be Cate Blanchett in Best Actress and also, surprisingly Jared Leto in “Dallas Buyers Club” for Best Supporting Transvestite.

And Sandra Bullock has floated into outer space with nary a mention.

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