a.k.a. "The Oscar Messenger"

Posts tagged ‘Grand Budapest’

Final Oscar Predictions ~ A Week Away from The Big Day

Well, dear readers, dear cineastes,  it’s almost over. Last week I was really beginning to feel Oscar burn-out as opposed to Oscar fever. And really since TIFF, which was now nearly six months ago, we Oscarologists, or Oscar Ninnys as the late lamented David Carr called us, have been writing over and over again about the same small group of films.”Oscar Island,” Sasha Stone calls it. And it gets smaller and smaller and also more crowded every year, and it’s not because of Global Warming.

With the FINAL three guild societies weighing in over the week, Sound, Hair and Make-Up and the Writers Guild, I think, we have to pause and note that “The Grand Budapest Hotel” won in all three races. That really says something. I think that “Grand Budapest” is going to be, astonishingly, the film that wins the most Oscars next Sunday night. It’s not a blockbuster sci-fi film with a lot of explosions and special effects, but it’s going to sweep I think all the below-the-line categories.

The outstanding group of artists and artisans that idiosyncratic filmmaker Wes Anderson assembled to create this uber-charming town (really Goerlitz Germany) will all be following each other, one right after the other, to the Dolby podium, to accept their golden statuettes.Oscar & tiles Now as to my main predictions, I think it’s pretty clear that Julianne Moore, J.K. Simmons and Patricia Arquette are all locked down, signed sealed and delivered for the categories of Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Actress for respectively “Still Alice”, “Whiplash” and “Boyhood.”

I think Golden Boy Eddie Redmayne is going to get a l’il golden guy of his own for his extraordinary, heart-wrenching portrayal of Stephen Hawkings in “The Theory of Everything.”Theory 6The main, brain-teasing question is what is going to win Best Picture and Best Director, and this year has been so close and so crazy that I’m predicting a split between the two supposed front-runners “Boyhood” and “Birdman.” And that one will win Best Director and the other Best Picture.

True I didn’t really LOVE either film, but I think it’s going to be “Boyhood” for Best Picture, simply because as Sasha Stone says “The heart wants what it wants” and the Best Director award will go to Mexican Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu for “Birdman.”

One of the three Mexican directors known as the Three Amigos, Innaritu saw his fellow countryman Alphonse Cuaron win Best Director last year for “Gravity.”

I think it’s going to break down this way because the Academy has been so stung this year by accusations of racism for not nominating Ava DuVernay or David Oyelowo as Best Director and Best Actor for “Selma.” So by giving the Best Director award to ANOTHER minority director, Innaritu, who is Hispanic, that particular accusation can be quelled. Somewhat.

But Oscar always brings a surprise or two along. Although this year has been so over-analyzed and yes, even over-covered, that will probably be nothing new to us Oscar Ninnys that follow all this. Except that. Except that. “Grand Budapest Hotel” which has been quietly picking up award after award in the third place position (it also just won Best Screenplay at the BAFTAs, and Best Original Screenplay last night at the WGA) could surprise and cancel out the two battling competitors. It’s true. It could happen.

Tilda GrandOscar I love it when you surprise!

“Grand Budapest”, “Boyhood” Win A.C.E.Eddies. “Birdman”s momentum stopped

Gustav H. & ZeroThis is certainly the bumpiest road to Oscar I have ever seen. The Race has taken ANOTHER severe, right-angle turn, with “Boyhood” and “The Grand Budapest Hotel” winning the A.C.E. Eddie awards last night. Effectively stopping “Birdman”s new- found momentum from last weekend’s the PGA and the SAG Award in its’ tracks.

Why? The Film Editors are considered the most important voting group after the MASSIVE Actors Branch and Guild (who dominate and who gave out its’ SAG awards last Sunday) and for “Boyhood” it was a very, very important turn-around in fortune, and for “Grand Budapest Hotel” too.

A.C.E. is the organization that represents the Editors Guild. Which has a lot of members as opposed to the Academy’s Editors branch, which is smaller and more elite. And the Eddie is the name they call their award.

It broke down like this ~ Best Edited Feature Film, Dramatic, “Boyhood” Sandra Adair.

And Best Edited Feature Film (Comedy or Musical), “The Grand Budapest Hotel” Barney Pilling.

This means that “Boyhood” is still very much in the race, with “Grand Budapest” nipping at its’ heels. “Grand Budapest,” you may remember got an equal amount of Oscar nominations (nine) to “Birdman.”

“Birdman,” of course, has those long(some would say ENDLESS) tracking, stedicam shots, which makes the film look like it isn’t edited, but of course, it is. It wasn’t shot in one, long, continuous take. But it was meant to look like it was… which is kind of an anti-editing stance, if you think about it.

And “Boyhood” shot over 12 years…can you IMAGINE the Degree of Difficulty of editing THAT much footage into something watchable? Of course, some could say that didn’t happen. That it’s a mess rather than a melange.

And “Grand Budapest” has all those nifty, changing aspect ratios. Of these three films, “Grand Budapest” is still far and away my favorite. But a shift of momentum, for “Boyhood” to “Birdman” is now NOT officially happening. At least according to the all-important editors.

Next stop, BAFTA! Where “The Theory of Everything” will probably sweep.

Online Film Critics Pick “Grand Budapest” Best Pic!

Fiennes 1One critics group after another this week! Tis’ the season! Now the Online Film Critics Society have named the wonderful “Grand Budapest Hotel” as Best Picture. Out of the three most awarded contenders so far “Grand Budapest…”, “Boyhood” and “Birdman” I’d pick “Grand Budapest” myself. Their Best Actor was Michael Keaton. Best Actress was the scintillating Rosamund Pike for “Gone Girl.” Supporting honors went to Edward Norton for “Birdman” and Patricia Arquette for “Boyhood.”

Complete list at http://www.hitfix.com

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