a.k.a. "The Oscar Messenger"

Posts tagged ‘Gangs of New York’

Michelle Williams Could STILL Win Best Actress in an Upset!

Well, SOMEbody has to say this so I am! Michelle Williams could still win Best Actress in an upset!

After Meryl Streep’s losing her shoe, cinderella-style, as she went up to accept HER upset win at the BAFTAs and everybody’s Prince Charming Colin Firth retrieving her shoe and kneeling to put it on her, the fairy tale was complete! OF COURSE, Meryl was going to re-duplicate this win at the Oscars! She’s great in “The Iron Lady” though the film sucks. And it’s 29 years since she won an Oscar before. It’s time.

Or is it?

Then I check back to see how everyone is reacting to this and it’s REALLY confusing.

ALLLLL the other categories are locked down tight now, as the voting begins to close this week. It’s pretty much all over. And Meryl just had The Last Big Win. And this also propelled Marion Cotillard to beat Julie Christie as I keep mentioning. And this BAFTA win did it for Tilda, too. She then won in America in Supp. Actress in a hotly contested FIVE WAY contest. And I noticed that Tilda was always coming in THIRD for “Michael Clayton” but SHE WAS THERE. She was ALWAYS THERE.

I read Oscar Goddess Sasha Stone saying that Meryl has got it in the bag at www.awardsdaily.com and she’s the most staunch Viola Davis supporter of all.

Then I notice that Pete Hammond who is right in the thick of things at www.deadlinehollywood.com is noting that it looks like Meryl, but Voting Members of the Academy keep telling him they are voting for Michelle Williams as Marilyn Monroe!

I’ve been plumping down my two cents on the Michelle/Marilyn side of the table since I saw this incredible film but I really felt WELL, MERYL’S WON! After the BAFTA results came in.

But then I check the Gurus ‘o’ Gold at www.moviecitynews.com and the one vote one guru counting has Viola Davis winning by a landslide of Gurus!

I’m getting soooo confused! But it’s the kind of confusion that I genuinely felt when it was Jack Nicholson for “About Schmidt” v. Daniel Day Lewis for “Gangs of New York” and it’s ALSO the same Oscarologist’s confusion that I felt when Tilda was in a five-way-race in Supporting the year she won. BTW, just for the record I PREDICTED Adrian Brody, when nobody else did, NOBODY, for “The Pianist” and I found myself predicting Tilda for “Michael Clayton”,too.

And what was the similarity that linked alllll these seemingly disparate characters? A TIGHT RACE! A VERY TIGHT RACE!

Of course, it does make everything truly suspenseful and wonderful and isn’t it about TIME that there should be ALLLLL these terrific performances from these terrific actresses??? This hasn’t happened in DECADES! DECADES!

But what this means is that Michelle Williams, who is placed THIRD behind Meryl and Viola Davis, could very well squeak through and win! And no lesser an Oscar predictor than Pete Hammond is saying this, too! It’s a scenario that I think bares repeating HERE, and I’m also sticking with Michelle on my TV show this week when we are doing what else? Oscar Predictions!

You can see my Oscar show on Friday midnight in Manhattan on Ch.56 on Time Warner Cable, and on Ch.83 on RCN and Ch.34 on Fios cable all at the same day and time. It’s also broadcast at that same day and time online at www.mnn.org Click on Ch.2 that’s 12:00AM EST.

And yes, the Gurus have it as Jean Dujardin trouncing all over George Clooney. Michel Hazanviscius as Best Director, “The Artist” as Best Picture, and OF COURSE, Octavia Spencer & Christopher Plummer in Supporting.

But if it IS Meryl or Viola and JDJ, Ms. Spencer and Mr. Plummer. NOBODY in the four top acting categories will be UNDER 40!?! And Y’know, the mainly, manly AMPAS majority the S.W.O.R.M. the Single White Old Rich Men, and the young men, too, are all going to go for the touching Michelle. Who has presented a brave, composed, perfectly on point, poised presence everywhere. They want to SEE a beautiful young woman with that Oscar. And they are already afraid of the failing TV Ratings sending them to cable.  So, me, I think the Babe Factor still RULES HOLLYWOOD!

Oscar Day Present to my readers from Editing Legend Thelma Schoonmaker

Tomorrow is Oscar Day, dear readers, dear cineastes, and so I thought it only apropos, instead of going all over the Oscar predictions ad nauseam. You all know where I stand. It’s “King’s Speech” all the way, or just part of the way. And I predict it will upset in Best Director, Best Supporting Actor, AND Best Supporting Actress….

But I digress, so I wanted to do something a little special. So here’s a very nice thoughtful note from that most modest of three-time Oscar winners, Editing Legend Thelma Schoonmaker.

They have this wonderful event now in New York, coming up again in June, called Editfest, which is a two-day film festival of sorts for film editors. I was wildly interesting to me, as someone, who with my TV show, is basically dealing with editors on a day-to-day basis.

So I thought you’d like to hear a tiny touch of Thelma’s thoughtfulness. We had a conference call-interview, and I said to her that “You are the most Oscar-winning of Film Editors.” And Thelma didn’t think she was. But SHE is.

She’s tied with others, mainly men for winning three Oscars each. She’s got six nominations. And she sent me this lovely list of who won what and when.

I think she’s actually the most-heavily Oscared LIVING Film Editor. Of course, for film editing Martin Scorcese’s great ones.

Well, here as an Oscar day treat, is Thelma speaking in her own quiet, reserved voice, sending me a researched list I never asked for, but was thrilled to receive. I’ve held it back for a special occasion. So here it is.

“For the man who asked whether I had won more Oscars than other editors, here is the information:

RALPH DAWSON won 3 Oscars

1935-A Midsummer’s Night’s Dream

1936- Anthony Adverse

1938- The Adventures of Robin Hood

DAVID MANDELL won 3 Oscars for:

1942- The Pride of the Yankees

1946- The Best Years of Our Lives

1960-The Apartment

BARBARA Mc Lean had 7 Oscar nominations

and won One Oscar as follows:

1935-Les Miserable

1936-Lloyds of London

1938-Alexander’s Ragtime Band

1939-The Rains Came

1943- The Song of Bernadette

1944- Wilson(won an Oscar for this)*

1950-All About Eve

William Reynolds had 7 Oscar nominations and won 2 Oscars as follows:

1961-Fanny

1965-The Sound of Music(won an Oscar for this)*

1966-Sand Pebbles

1969- Hello Dolly!

1972- The Godfather (with Peter Zimmer)

1973- The Sting(won an Oscar for this)*

1977-The Turning Point.

I have had six nominations.

Many thanks,

Thelma

And here’s the films Thelma received nominations and Oscars for – 1970 – Woodstock,

1980-Raging Bull(won), 1990 (Good Fellas), 2002(Gangs of New York), 2004, The Aviator(won), 2006(The Departed)

So with her three wins, and six nominations Thelma Schoonmaker is right up there tied with the Film Editing Oscar greats. Now she just needs one more win, and god bless her, I hope she gets another one, and she’ll be the most Oscar winning-est Film Editor of all time.

Thank you, Thelma, for going to all this trouble, and CONGRATULATIONS! And many more of the same, I’m so sure! Happy Oscars!

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