a.k.a. "The Oscar Messenger"

Posts tagged ‘Fruitvale Station’

Best Supporting Actress Oscar Nomination Predictions

Following on from my earlier Oscar Nominations Predictions here are my Best Supporting Actress nominations. 

This is the wacky category which is always unstable and where ALWAYS surprises turn up. Even to me. Like for instance last year Jackie Weaver getting nominated for “Silver Linings Playbook.” Even SHE didn’t expect it, she has said.

Why, in a rather weak performance, did she get in? Well simply put she was in a film every Academy voter was watching, to look at the other eventual nominees Bradley Cooper, Robert DiNiro and eventual winner Jennifer Lawrence, and they saw Weaver playing mother hen to all of them, and so out of sheer laziness, I feel, they just wrote her name down as well. Instead of looking at a separate DVD screener (even if they were sent one) on Magnolia Films Indie starring Ann Dowd.

Weaver replaced Dowd in the final Nomination line-up. Even though she was NOMINATED for a Broadcast Film Critics Award for Best Supporting Actress and WON the National Board of Review.

Weaver was also in a film the Weinstein Co. were pushing. As always, DON’T UNDERESTIMATE HARVEY!

So who does Harvey have in his Supporting Actress stable this year? Well, Julia Roberts, in the best performance of her career in “August:Osage County” so I think she’s in. And so are his other ladies, Opran Winfrey in “Lee Daniels The Butler” and also Octavia Spenser in “Fruitvale Station.”

Adding in Lupita Nyong’O’s breakout debut performance in “12 Years a Slave” and Golden Globe winner and last year’s Best Actress winner Jennifer Lawrence in “American Hustle.”

And 84-year-old June Squibb gets in for “Nebraska.”

Also, I don’t think the Academy can resist making history this year by nominating THREE African American actresses in the same category! That would be Oprah, Lupita Nyong’O, and former winner in this category Octavia Spenser.

ETA: I just realized I predicted SIX nominees! Well, that can’t be right!
Sorry! So who gets left out. Unfortunatley, it’s either Octavia Spenser, but because she’s got Harvey behind her, and he’s ALSO got to do some heavy lifting for Julia Roberts in this category AND Oprah, too, who surprisingly is not a slam dank(She didn’t get a Golden Globe nomination! SHOCK!). He may split his infinity here. And “Fruitvale Station” as worthy as it is, is NOT “Beasts of the Southern Wild.”Or Octavia gets in and June Squibb does not. Last year, Ann Dowd didn’t.

Racist NY Film Critics Ignore “12 Years a Slave” Well, almost

Black director Steve McQueen won Best Director from the New York Film Critics, but otherwise “12 Years a Slave” a masterpiece IMHO was ignored by the NYFCC, the Gotham Awards and the National Board of Review. It’s official. There’s a “12 Years a Slave” racist backlash in full swing. And it makes me very angry.

The beneficiaries of this most racist slate of awards voting I’ve ever seen in my adult life of covering entertainment are strangely( but good for them), Ryan Coogler and the actors of “Fruitvale Station”. “Fruitvale Station” is goodness knows about racism and its tragic effects and I’m the first one to cheer for Octavia Spenser, Melonie Diaz and Michael B.Jordan. Coogler scored with all three critics groups, much to his astonishment as I described in the previous post.

If you were handicapping the Oscars (Like Tom O’Neil does on http://www.goldderby.com), you’d have to take note that young Coogler has scored ACROSS THE BOARD.

And the lacerating “12 Years a Slave” did not. “12 Years a Slave” has the disadvantage of being the early front-runner, which as Oscar Goddess Sasha Stone says historically is the worst place any deserving film can be. http://www.awardsdaily.com And unfortunately, she’s absolutely right. A pushback, a take-down seemed impossible. But three days of dealing with this VERY bad news for “12YAS” it now seems inevitable.

So word got out that “12 Years a Slave” was a difficult sit. It’s challenging, frightening, electrifying and horribly historically accurate. Which is what makes it great. And I’m ashamed that these cowardly critics turned their faces away from the reality of slavery depicted in this majestic movie. Sasha had a feeling this was going to happen, but I thought if it happened at all it would be in insular L.A. not knowledgeable New York. DISGRACE!

Steve McQueen getting Best Director from the NYFCC is to be applauded of course, but it almost seems like a boobie prize when Best Actor goes to Robert Redford for “All’s in the Wash” And the brilliant, painful performance of Chiwetel Ejiafor is left out!?!? REALLY, New York Film Critics!?!? REALLLLLY?!?!?

And the searing supporting performance of Lupita Nyong’o is ignored by them in favor JENNIFER LAWRENCE?!?!? This is for “American Hustle” the David O. Russell film which I haven’t seen yet. I’m sure she’s fine. But REALLY, New York Film Critics?!?!? Really?!?! For SHAME!!!! A BIMBO over an abused slave?!?!? And to ad insult to injury, they named “American Hustle” best picture!?!??!?

And while Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere has a source that says voting for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress were THAT CLOSE. I mean, Michael Fassbender’s choice to go film in New Zealand and ignore the whole thing seems a wise one.

I thought we lived in an enlightened age. But I guess not, Chiwetel and Lupita losing to TWO BLONDS?!? Robert Redford and Jennifer Lawrence is just unconscionable.

I protest!

Gotham Awards ~ Fruitvale Station wins Big, but NOTHING for “12 Years a Slave”!?!

I went to the Gotham Awards totally thinking that my fave, and critical darling, “12 Years a Slave” was going to win big tonight, but it got NOthing! NOTHING! However, 2013 continues to be a big year for African-Americans and the films they’ve made. “Fruitvale Station” got the most accolades with two wins. Nothing got more than that.

Ryan Coogler won the Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director Award for “Fruitvale Station” and I got to chat with him a bit afterwards in the delightfully less crowded than usual Press/Green Room, far removed from the noisy fray of the banquet hall below at swank Cipriani’s on Wall St.. Where jammed packed Indie stars and industry types kept talking to each other and not listening to the speakers who kept trying to make them pay attention to THEM. Evidently a losing battle.

However in the Press Room, everyone seemed totally absorbed with what all were saying, and I still feel that out of everybody I talked to tonight, Ryan Coogler, the brilliant young African-American director of “Fruitvale” is the only person who may surprise at the Oscar nominations next month in a category that last year was spread among eight.

If you want to parse it more exactly Oscar Goddess Sasha Stone does it more expertly than I at http://www.awardsdaily.com.

The Director’s Branch of academy is not going to know what the formerly influential DGA (Directors Guild of America) is going to choose before it votes on the directors. Or vice versa. Sasha will explain it.

I tried to explain it to Ryan Coogler and he was dumbfounded at the news. And I had to explain to him, that I, the Oscar Messenger was telling Behn Zeitlin, the exact same thing  last year at the Gothams, standing in the exact same spot in the exact same room that we were both now in, that he was going to get an Oscar nomination, and he didn’t believe me either. And look what happened! I was right! Zeitlin DID get nominated for an Academy Award for Best Director for “Beasts of the Southern Wild.” In fact, he won the exact same award as Coogler. And in fact, “Beasts” also won two Gotham Awards last year.

Coogler said he just flat-out couldn’t believe me. “It’s all on my cast, man, and Forest.” Forest Whitaker produced “Frutivale Station,” and was also an honoree tonight.

And Coogler said, “Man, haven’t we met before? I know you.” And I demurred saying that “No. It’s the first time, but I loved your movie.” and that “Melonie(Diaz) was on my show.”

The other award “Fruitvale” won was for Michael B. Jordan for Best Breakthrough Actor. 

He was pounced on my all the media in the press room, and since I feel he ISN’T going to repeat this win at the Oscars(or even get a nomination. Best Actor is soooo jammed this year.) I didn’t press my luck with the surging hoards.

Nor did I try to talk to Brie Larson who surprised all in the room by winning Best Actress for “Short Term 12.” She smartly said as she began at the mike, “This is the only acceptance speech I am going to be making this year.” And she’s right. She hasn’t got a shot of cracking the very tightly locked Famous Five, all former winners, Meryl Streep, Cate Blanchett, Dame Judi Dench, Sandra Bullock and Emma Thompson.

Again there was a surge towards her in the press room, and I just thought, “She’s not being nominated” So it wasn’t worth the chance of being trampled in the rush. But I did hear her above the muted din, I did hear her stress how genuinely surprised she was. She looked very, very pale, like a woman in shock should look.

A very funny moment occurred when Jared Leto (who probably IS going to be nominated for Best Supporting Actor for “Dallas Buyers Club”) accepted the award for Best Actor on behalf of Matthew McConaughey, who wasn’t there. Leto held his cell phone up to the micro-phone and tried to get the audience to hear what Matthew was saying. He opened with “Alright! Alright! Alright!” in an accented twang, and ended with saying “Matthew says ‘I Love New York!”

And last but not least, “Inside Llewyn Davis” surprised by winning Best Picture(!?!) And Llewyn himself said he was so happy and honored to be accepting this award for the Coen Brothers(who weren’t there), and to be in a “New York film about New York with New York actors.” That speech got the biggest round of applause, I think. Him, I made a bee-line for in the Press Room, and talked about how I had met him at Juilliard many years ago. And we were supposed to do a satellite interview tomorrow, but stay tuned Stephen Holt Show fans, it’s being rescheduled for next week.

To sum up, I think this will help McConaughey keep his spot in the deadly Best Actor debacle which seemed tightly locked between himself, Chiwetal Ejiafor, Robert Redford, Tom Hanks and Bruce Dern, until this weekend when everyone who saw the advance guild and press screenings of “Wolf of Wall Street” went batshit crazy over Leonardo DiCaprio’s performance.

So I have to give a concluding shout out to my three friends and former guests on my show, who I had the pleasure of sitting through this whole shebang with. Brian Brooks, Nigel Smith and Peter Knegt. All from http://www.Indiewire.com  ,although Brian has now moved on to http://www.deadline.com

And I asked  the Oscar-wise Peter who he thought was going to get bumped by Leo out of the Best Actor five and he said, “It’s either Redford or Hanks.” And I think he’s right.

The Gothams, the Awards from Independent Films FOR Independent Films, really went truly indie tonight by giving awards to people and films that are going to be swamped by “12 Years A Slave” come tomorrow when the Critics Groups start announcing. Let the Hunger Games Begin!

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CONGRATULATIONS MELONIE DIAZ! BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS NOMINEE! INDIE SPIRIT AWARDS!

Congratulations to my charming talented guest Melonie Diaz for her first Independent Spirit Award nomination for Best Supporting Actress for “Fruitvale Station! And here I am, the Oscar Messenger, telling her this would happen! And she didn’t believe me!

Oscars, Critics awards get closer

Well, it’s still pretty early but no sooner than next week, both the New York Film Critics and the National Board of Review will announce, one day after the other.

I think both these organizations, who are vastly influential, will go for “12 Years a Slave” as Best Picture. Both organizations are here in NYC, natch. And think they are both going to go also for Chiwetal Ejiafor for Best Actor for “Twelve Years a Slave” and Cate Blanchett for Best Actress for Woody Allen’s “Blue Jasmine.” Let’s face it, Woody Allen is the essence of New York, so I think they won’t be swayed by the Hollywood Star Power that the Golden Globes represent.

I don’t see any of the Hwood centric films scoring here…No All Is Wet. I mean “All is Lost” for Robert Redford, or the ship-wreck(and train wreck of lawsuits)of “Captain Phillips”. Maybe the National Board of Review will go for Bruce Dern’s space cadet in “Nebraska.” That would be a table for Paramount, and one for Sony Pictures Classics for “Blue Jasmine” and several table for Fox Searchlight.

And they are announcing so early, both groups may not see AT ALL, the late breaking “American Hustle” or the even later breaking “Wolf of Wall Street.” So don’t expect either of those films to show up UNLESS they get seen. The NBR has a Top Ten list that “Hustle” could crack IF it’s all that.

Also expect the overwhelmingly Jewish National Board to give something to “The Book Thief.” Even if it’s just a mention on its’ Top Ten List.

And they always give something to George Clooney so he shows up, which this year the only thing would be “August:Osage County” as a producer.

Think back two years ago when “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” wasn’t seen by either of these groups in time, but did end up snagging one of the Oscar ten slots for Best Picture….

Supporting I also think is going to go “12 Years” way. Although the NBR is famous for spreading its’ wealth(so it can sell as many tables at its’ event as it can) so there may be other films represented by them, that aren’t represented at the New York Film Critics.

So they won’t match exactly, but I think Best Picture will be the same for both groups. They know the world is watching.

Also look for the National Board to include a Weinstein co. actor or actress in its’ largesse. Most likely Oprah Winfrey. For Best Supporting Actress. For “Lee Daniels’ The Butler.”

Michael Fassbender is someone who the NYFCC will honor, but who might the NBR give it to? Is this were the ubiquitous Tom Hanks’ scores this year for Disney, playing Disney, in “Saving Mr. Banks”? Think of all those tables they have to sell.

The NBR has also awards for Best Male and Female Newcomer and expect Lupita Nyong’O to end up there. And perhaps Michael B.Jordan from “Fruitvale Station”? Although he’s not THAT new. But being as this is the Year of Years for African-American performers and films, you just might find Jordan showing up here.

Last year, if anyone remembers, this is where the disgracefully under-rewarded Ann Dowd of “Compliance” got Best Supporting Actress.

But they won’t give Lupita TWO major awards (though she deserves them) so PERHAPS this is where they become the HFPA and give Best Supporting Actress to Oprah! That will sell a lot of tables. And turn them from an also-ran, announcing ONE DAY after the NYFCC, into an EVENT!

Oscar Shocker? White Stars Knock Black Stars Out of Best Actor Race

Sad, but true. In what is being touted as the best year ever for the recognition of Black film making, with “12 Years A Slave” steam-rolling every Oscar category in its’ path, the Best Actor race may sadly be the same old same old-as in The Same Old White Faces.

There were FOUR possible Black Best Actor candidates. I’m using the word Black because two of them are British and therefore the term African-American is not totally apt here. Chiwetel Ejiafor for “12 Years a Slave” is British, and so is Idris Elba “Mandela:Long Walk to Freedom.” The other two being Forest Whittaker (already an Academy Award winner in this category) for “Lee Daniels’ The Butler‘”and Michael B. Jordan for “Fruitvale Station.”

I’m afraid when the nominations are announced in January only Chiwetel Ejiafor is going to be the last one standing. And the hue and cry resulting from this happenstance, may very well secure his win. WHICH HE TOTALLY DESERVES!!! “12 Years a Slave” is a masterpiece!

I have no trouble saying that “12 Years a Slave” won the Oscar in September. In Toronto, to be exact. At TIFF’13. I know. I was there. I saw it.I felt it.  It was seismic. The ground was trembling. It was like an Academy Award earthquake!

And the words on everyone’s lips formed a mantra “’12 Years a Slave’ has already won the Oscar in September!”

And lo and behold, it did go on to win the Toronto Film Festival Audience Choice Award for Best Picture. One of the only awards that non-award-giving TIFF gives out. And it’s the audience at TIFF that voted for this.

And I think it’s going to dominate in every category that it’s nominated for. Particularly Best Director(Steve McQueen), Best Supporting Actor (Michael Fassbender) and Best Supporting Actress ( dazzling newcomer) Lupita N’yong’o. Yes, I think Jeff Wells http://www.hollywood-elswhere.com is right in saying she could beat Oprah Winfrey in this category. Oprah being in the running for “Lee Daniels’ The Butler.”

But back to the lead in this story. The SWORM which IS the Academy (Straight White Old Rich Men) are going to make sure that Robert Redford, Tom Hanks and Bruce Dern all end up nominated in this category.

Hanks certainly landed with a big splash on Friday night, opening the New York Film Festival with “Captain Phillips.” Everyone, critics and audiences alike were ecstatic in their praise. Also of Barkhad Habdi as the main Somali pirate. There could be a surprise nomination there. No one saw that coming. But there it is.

Robert Redford’s solo performance in “All Is Lost” is a career-capper, too, by all acounts, and so is Bruce Dern’s in “Nebraska.” Up against these Hollwyood legends, I fear Whittaker, (“He already has an Oscar “) and Idris Elba( his film did not wow the critics or audiences at TIFF) and newcomer Jordon(“He’s young. He can wait.”) will all cancel each other out and leave Chiwetel as the last Black man standing.

And he could win. Satisfying EVERYONE. I hope.

I’m figuring the #5 slot is going to go to the long-overdue, career-changing Matthew McConaughey, who, yes, scored mightily, yes, at TIFF, for “Dallas Buyers Club.”

So much was decided at TIFF this year, I just couldn’t believe it.

When “Mandela” bombed, as did “The Fifth Estate,” those two films were quickly taken off the Oscar table.

It doesn’t bother me that “12 Years a Slave” is the presumptive winner. It deserves it.  It’s one of the greatest films ever made and deserves to be acknowledged as the masterpiece it is.. The injustices and horror of slavery that it depicts, just SCREAM “AWARD THIS!” All the other films coming up this year simply in terms of subject matter seem picayune by comparison.

The fact that in the Best Supporting Actress category, which some refer to as “The Booby Prize” of the Oscars,” there could very well be a historic TRIO of African American nominees, Oprah Winfrey, N’yong’o( She’s an American. She went to the Yale School of Drama! Yes, she did!) And past winner Octavia Spenser for “Fruitvale Station”. That would be terrific precedent-breaking situation. But in the Best Actor category, sadly, no. The status quo will, I fear,prevail.

Meryl Streep in SUPPORTING for “August”??? I don’t think so…

One of the wackiest things I’ve heard in ages is Meryl Streep being announced as going Supporting for “August:Osage County.” Her character Violet Westin is an award-magnet bravura tour-de-force kind of role.It’s clearly the lead. It won Deanna Dunagan, a Chicago actress who debuted the part on Broadway a Tony Award.

Her co-star Amy Morton was nominated for the role of Violet’s confrontational daughter, but lost to Dunagan at the Tonys. Julia Roberts is playing this difficult part in the movie version, and we all wish her well. And hope she outdoes and confounds expectations, as I think she will.

Putting Meryl in Supporting leaves Julia as a Best Actress likely nominee, as we’re talking about her chances, too, at this moment. And then Julia on her own could get all the “August:Osage” votes, the thinking most be. She and Meryl could split the vote were they BOTH put in this category, both in Best Actress.

Putting Meryl in Supporting then pits her AGAINST Oprah Winfrey for “Lee Daniels’The Butler”. Both are Weinstein films? WHAT is Harvey Weinstein thinking? He’s also got a pretty good shot with Octavia Spencer for “Fruitvale Station.” Sharon Stone is also a likely nominee as Linda Lovelace’s straight-laced mother in “Lovelace.” Those are ALLLLLL Harvey’s films!

Now, the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences allows its’ members to nominate actors and actresses in whichever category it chooses to put them into. So like the year Kate Winslet won Best Actress for “The Reader” even though Harvey campaigned her in Supporting for that movie.

If you may remember, that year Kate W. won BOTH Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress at the Golden Globes, who do follow the studios dictates.

So I think this is all just publicity palaver to get people to talk about “August:Osage” and ALLLL the wonderful performances by women I’m sure it contains. I can’t wait to see it at the Toronto Film Festival in a few weeks.

I think the Academy will put Meryl in the lead, and Julia, too, if they both deserve to be their.

And WHY is this all happening? Fear of Cate Blanchett’s great “Blue Jasmine.”

“August: Osage” after Toronto is going underground and will not be seen again or screened until Thanksgiving. Harvey’s release plan EXACTLY for “The King’s Speech.” But this ploy is so outlandish, it may lead Academy voters to vote for none of the “Osage” actresses and is just handing the win over to Cate Blanchett. Or is it?

Stay tuned. Drama ensues.

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