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Posts tagged ‘Christophe Waltz’

British Oscars, the BAFTAS ~ What will they mean? If anything…

So tomorrow over in Blighty, the BAFTAs will be announced. The last major precursor award before the Oscars themselves, which are held on Feb.24.

Being socked in and basically locked in by the Blizzard of 2013, gives one time to really ruminate on the BAFTAS. It’s broadcast live in London, but here it can only be seen online. Check out http://www.awardsdaily.com to see if it’s live streaming there, or if not, they will tell you what, where and when to find it.

So, who’s going to win at the BAFTAS? And will they mean anything at all to Oscar?
Like, for instance, Robert De Niro isn’t nominated for Best Supporting Actor for “Silver Linings Playbook.” I think De Niro has the momentum at the Oscars, but since he’s not nominated, then who? Some say German actor Christophe Waltz for “Django Unchained,” why? Because he’s a European,Then there’s the other nominees from the states Tommy Lee Jones for “Lincoln”, Phillip Seymour Hoffman for “The Master” and Alan Arkin for “Argo.”

They’ve nominated Ben Affleck for BOTH Best Actor AND Best Directorand also “Argo” for Best Picture! So they really like “Argo,” and I suspect it will prevail in both picture and Director, but if Ben Affleck wins Best Actor! LOOK OUT!

He’s up of course against Daniel Day-Lewis for “Lincoln”, who may be the only BAFTA winner for “Lincoln” since Steven Spielberg isn’t even nominated here! But on the other hand, OTOH, as they say in Internet-speak, if DDL doesn’t win here and either Affleck or Hugh Jackman does, this could be the last nail in the boring, talky “Lincoln”s coffin. Hey! It could happen!

Likewise a win for Alan Arkin for “Argo” could signal a sweep is going on and that’s what’s going to happen the rest of the night.

But since the Weinstein monkeys are working like cra-zee over there, they’ve still got two entrants in Supporting Actor, PSH for “The Master” and Waltz for “Django Unchained”, so either could win. As in American, Supp. Actor at the BAFTAs is really too close to call. Although that’s what I’m supposed to do. So I’ll call it for Waltz, simply because it’s another Harvey Weinstein situation there.

And Anne Hathaway has best supporting actress sewn up there, for “Les Miserables” mais oui, as she has it here.

But Best Actress is really the one to watch. If 85-year-old Emmanuelle Riva wins for the French language film “Amour” over Jennifer Lawrence for “SLP” and Jessica Chastain for “Zero Dark Thirty,” that win and Riva’s acceptance speech could really impact the Best Actress race here. But then again, if she doesn’t show up. But still wins anyway, it probably will not have the same impact, as if the still comely octogenarian French icon wins, is there to accept, and moves every one to tears, as she probably will, with a lovely French-accented acceptance speech.

Remember that BAFTA is really where Marion Cotillard, also acting in French in a French-speaking film “La Vie En Rose”, won, and moved the whole world with HER acceptance speech, setting herself up very nicely for her Oscar win a few weeks later.

This is prime Oscar voting time, the balloting being opened only YESTERDAY, Friday. And who watches the BAFTAS? Well, the Academy members who are still undecided about who to vote for in tumultuous races, like this year’s Best Actress assuredly is.

So I guess you could reduce this all to say “How many awards will ‘Argo’ win?” and who wins Best Actress? Riva, Lawrence or even Chastain? We shall very soon see.

Who Will Harvey Pick? He’s Got THREE Best Supp. Actors

It’s raining/sleeting/snowing in NYC, but to continue with my train of thought since the last post… Who will Harvey Weinstein pick of his threesome of Best Supporting Actors to push, push, push to Oscar gold?

I guess it was noticed that Phillip Seymour Hoffman was MIA to pick up, or even show up, for the Awards shows this past week. I think he’s rather furious that he’s been relegated to Supporting Actor, for what clearly was a co-lead in the flop “The Master.” So he’s not being super-co-operative. Or PSH is seeing the handwriting on the wall and it’s not spelling HIS name.

I think it’s spelling Robert Deniro’s. Yes, for the audience-friendly “Silver Linings Playbook,” which is only now going wide.The box-office for “SLP” has not being overwhelming to say the least. It’s a difficult, quirky comedy. Or dramedy. And it’s a small, domestic-arguement kind of film. It doesn’t have the range or scope of the epics of this year, “Les Miserables”, or “Argo” or “Zero Dark Thirty” or “Lincoln.”

The “Lincoln” camp is quaking in their boots. Getting “Hilary Clinton’s husband,”to quote the super sharp Amy Poehler, the evening’s resoundingly successful co-host (along with Tina Fey), to introduce the “Lincoln” clip was the act of a desperate group of people. In this case, Disney. They NEVER have run a successful Oscar campaign. Look at how they botched “The Help” last year.

Their sledge-hammer approach cost Viola Davis her Oscar bid last year. They got Best Supporting Actress for “The Help”s Octavia Spenser, but Best Supp. ANYthing is always considered by the Academy as a consolation prize. It’s just not as important as Best ACTOR and Best ACTRESS and now, this year, Best Director.

Liked Anne Hathaway’s seeming slam-dunk lock for “Les Miserables” That category is effectively closed. Give it up, Sally Field.

But back to Harvey. HE KNOWS how to run an Oscar campaign, and he’s relentless in its’ pursuit. Only this year’s ponies, as my idol Tom O’Neil would say over at http://www.goldderby.com, are not the thoroughbreds he was pushing in the past two historic years when he had “The Artist” and “The King’s Speech.” “SLP” is just NOT as good a film as the two recent Oscar winners, who were both Weinstein Co. productions.

Personally, I think he’s going to go after “Silver Linings Playbook” anyway for the win. Or as many wins as he can get for it. Main among them, Jennifer Lawrence for Best Actress. She already just won Best Actress Comedy at the Globes, but that was ALLLL “SLP” won, no matter how hard Harvey & Co. were campaigning for it. Next up, the SAG Awards, for which Robert Deniro IS nominated, in Supp.

And that means the twice-Oscared, but never SAGed DeNiro could be looking at HIS third Oscar and HE’S campaigning! Something he NEVER does.IOW, he’s co-operating with Harvey’s Oscar vision for “SLP”.

HW COULD prevail for DeNiro, who, let’s face it is a bona fide Oscar legend, and we’ll just see who out of the current Weinstein Co. stable DOES win Best Supporting Actor.

The co-operative Christophe Waltz won his second Golden Globe in two years, thanks to Harvey, for “Django Unchained.” And who gives the Best Performance out of Hoffman, DeNiro and Waltz. I’d say it was Waltz. And that may happen at the Oscars, too. He may duplicate his win as will, I think Quentin Tarantino in Best Original Screenplay.

Harvey Weinstein KNOWS how to run an Oscar campaign. Disney does not. And Neither does Fox, who has “Life of Pi” and also neither does Universal, who has “Les Miserables” which SHOULD be the winner IMHO. But alllll these majors, the studios, just aren’t USED to winning Oscars anymore. It’s like they were all born yesterday and only Harvey and the Weinstein Co. know what they are doing….And that’s just the way it is this year, ladies and gente-persons, dear readers, dear cineastes.

Except for the fly in the ointment, “Argo”.

You can’t have TWO Davids v. one Goliath. Like “SLP” AND “Argo” v. Goliath “Lincoln.” So which of “Argo” and “SLP” is the “Little Film That Could”? The Oscar question of the morning.

Oscar Maxims of Harvey Weinstein, Advice Taken and Not Taken

How dull would the Awards season be, that is now going full-throttle, well, at least the publicists are, during the holidays this year( more like Holidaze) because of the ridiculously truncated Oscar nomination voting period? How dull would it be withOUT OscarMeister Harvey Weinstein to continually spice things up?

Harvey has a couple of Oscar rules, I’ve gleaned over the years, more like Maxims, really. Words to the wise (if anyone’s really listening, and I know the Oscar strategists are, AND Scott Feinberg (*waves* to Scott) 1) The picture that is seen LAST has the most impact. And 2) Only one nominee(from the Weinstein Co.) in each category.

He certainly seems to have applied Maxim 1) to “Django Unchained” opening as it did strangely on Christmas Day, but the box-office and critical accolades seem to bear out Harvey’s wisdom in this case. I beg to differ on this one, but the Golden Globes nominated it all over the place. Though the SAGs did not get their screeners for “Django” in time, it is said. So no SAG nominations.

Started reading Liz Smith’s “diary” i.e., blog, i.e., column in the http://www.newyorksocialdiary.com and she says about the Hollywood Foreign Press something to the effect that “Who are these people? Nobody you’d ever know, except that once a year the come together to get everyone’s attention.”(I’m paraphrasing) i.e. the Golden Globe Awards.

And Harvey plays the HFPA like a symphony. So, of COURSE, they are going to award his “Django” with a Best Picture, Best Director(Quentin Tarantino), and two Best Supporting Actor noms(Christophe Waltz AND Leonardo DiCaprio). Leo and Christophe may cancel each other out. And THEN who would win? Tommy Lee Jones for “Lincoln”? Jones does seem ahead at the moment. His main competition, “The Master”s Phillip Seymour Hoffman is slipping every day. And NOT because of Hoffman’s stupendous performance. And “The Master” is ALSO a Harvey film. So he has THREE in this category! Which probably means that Jones does get it, because the THREE Weinsteins, may be just way too many nominees.

But right there in this past paragraph you can see that Harvey just contradicted himself big time. So while Maxim1 worked for “Django” with the Globes and at the Box-Office, Maxim 2 got him THREE nominees in the SAME category, something he  always says he wants to avoid. Some may call it an embarassment of riches, but Leo and Waltz and Hoffman could cancel each other out.

It seems HIGHLY unlikely to me that the Academy is going to embrace “Django” on any level. It’s just toooo bloody. One of the most violent films I’ve ever seen in the Oscar race. AND director Quentin Tarantno isn’t due.

The Golden Globes are really not a good indicator of anything anymore, except trouble. THEY are the main reasons for this shortened voting period. AMPAS wants to get the Oscar nominations out FIRST, BEFORE the Golden Globes are held. Which they will be doing, effectively trumping the GGs from having ANY influence on the Oscar nominations themselves, which are announced on Tues. Jan.10 this year. Sooooo early. The earliest ever. And making voters jam all their holidaze with viewing screeners.

There is said to have been more Oscar-oriented parties in L.A. this year than ever. I don’t know. I’m not there. I’m only reporting. In New York, it’s been more or less status quo, as far as that’s concerned, as far as I can see.

But this shortened voting period means the over-burdened Oscar voters have LESS time to see everything they have to see. So what do they do? They choose to see The BIG Must-Sees like probably “Les Miserables”, “Lincoln”, “Argo”, “Zero Dark Thirty” and “Life of Pi” and maybe even “Django” too. Others, like the suddenly on the cusp(and yes, it’s a Harvey film, too) “Silver Linings Playbook” and on down the line-up, may get seen less. Simply because there’s less time.

And speaking of “Silver Linings Playbook” I think it will win Jennifer Lawrence Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical for the Globes. But in the Best Director category, SLP’s director David O. Russell got knocked out by – wait for it! Quentin Tarantino!!! So yes, that Maxim #2 really is something to go by.

Will O. Russell get Oscar nominated, like he was just a couple of years back for “The Fighter”?

I’m thinking not. And we don’t have any DGAs to guide us, as in previous years, because yes, they, too, won’t announce their five ALL IMPORTANT nominees til, yes, that’s right, AFTER the Oscar nominations are announced on the 10th.

Speaking of the 10th. if I were in L.A. and covering the nominations, they occur there at 5:30AM( here, EST, it’s at 8:30AM on the morning news shows) then THAT NIGHT there are the BFCA, the Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards which are USUALLY the most predictive of the Oscar race. That is ONE long day for all the nominees and everyone else involved. Phew!

The BAFTAS predict the Oscars quite often lately

Last night the BAFTAS pretty much accurately predicted who’s going to win what in the Best Picture and Actors categories.

Before I go further, let me once again, explain that the BAFTAs voting procedures are different from the Oscars in that EVERYone, every member, votes on the categories of Best Picture and all four acting categories.

HOWEVER, the British Guilds vote for each of the other categories, like Best Director. And they gave it to David Fincher for “The Joy of Typing” and not home boy Tom Hooper for “The King’s Speech.” THAT was probably the most shocking event of the evening, as “The King” ruled over seven categories! Taking home the most BAFTAS of any film, seven, including Best Picture, Best British Picture, Best Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay and Best Score.

I bring up the directing statistic as an example of how the Brits don’t necessarily honor their own. As for instance, Anthony Minghella (“The English Patient”) and Sam Menzies(“American Beauty”) were dissed in Limey, losing in their own country, but winning the Oscar for Best Director,when Push came to SHOW!

Since Tom Hooper has already won the DGA for “The King’s Speech”. Since the Queen of England AND Andy Rooney (just yesterday, this Sunday on 60 Minutes) both endorsed TKS, I think he’s got that in the bag too.

As well as fellow “King”sters Colin (of course) Firth and Geoffrey Rush and FINALLY my fave Helena Bonham-Carter.

Rush winning over Brit bad boy Christian Bale is particularly significant, since Rush is ostentatiously Australian.

I had the pleasure last night of attending an event in his honor last night at the DGA where Rush got multiple ovations, some of them standing, but more about that later.

I have always maintained that the BAFTAs help make up undecided minds in the Academy. If AMPAS voters wait to see what the Brits do at the BAFTAS…especially in the top Acting Categories.

Had Annette Bening upset Natalie Portman(who didn’t even show up) in Best Actress, for instance, it would indicate that their was an undercurrent surging for Annette. No such luck. Natalie’s got it, as they say, locked up. And Colin(of course) Firth does, too.  No contest in either of those two categories. The same can also be applied to David Seidler, the real stutterer who penned “King’s Speech” from his heart and who won Best Original Screenplay.

I’m willing to concede (FINALLY) that Aaron Soreking will win Best Adapted Screenplay for “The Joy of Typing.” Even his constant comparing himself to Shakespeare didn’t put off the Brits, so yes, the Academy will follow suit and this may be the only award “Typing” wins at the Oscars…You heard it here first!

And Geoffrey and Helena!

Well, the category of Supporting Actress for those of you who have been following the story (and you wouldn’t be reading THIS if you weren’t) know how badly former front-runner Melissa Leo stumbled at the last yard and basically handed the award to yes, Helena Bonham-Carter!

Best Supporting Actress is a category like none other. And these year, to me, resembles the year, a few back, when it was a five-way horse race, and at the last possible minute, Tilda Swinton was anointed at the BAFTAs for “Michael Clayton” and then surprised everyone, but me, at the Oscars ten or so days later.

This year Best Supp. Actress is all over the place with two actresses both from the fighter, Leo, who wasn’t nominated by the BAFTAs AT ALL, and Amy Adams, who was. Only Amy and Helena B-C found approval from the BAFTAs and of course, she won, and gave a wacky, rambling, memorable and moving speech just as I foretold she would.

She wore a black Vivienne Westwood. And looked less bizarre than she did at the BFCA or was it the SAGs or was it the Golden Globes, when she wore two different colored shoes? It’s all starting to blur on me. And if I’M getting a bit blurry, imagine the Awards-circuit fatigue the average viewer is going through?!?

But the Oscars are STILL the Gold Standard(pardon the pun) and I really do think Helena aced this topsy-turvy category with her BAFTA win.

Geoffrey on the other hand, really has his hands full trumping Christian Bale in “The Fighter.” As good as Bale is in this popular film( I even liked it), he lost on his home turf,(yes, he IS British, too) to Rush’s supreme, stately, magnificent Speech Therapist Lionel Logue.

Rush has got his previous Oscar win in Best Actor for “Shine” and Bale is a first-time nominee.

But Rush now has the BAFTA as well as Sasha Stone www.awardsdaily.com predicting him now. And I’ve ALWAYS been predicting him. And Helena, too.

Helena’s competition is much less intense as what Rush has to contend with in Bale’s…but…

I think the BAFTAS have spoken. Last year, it was only the Supporting Categories that matched. No Bullock, no Bridges, but Christoph Waltz and Mo’Nique won BAFTAs as well as Oscars. The year previous Mickey Rourke won, over Sean Penn. But then Mr. Rourke got up and made a really crude F=== this and F=== that acceptance speech, and pretty much handed the award to Penn with that embarrassing, graceless moment.

But in the two years previous, BAFTA was four for four with the Oscar actors.

This year, well, don’t be surprised by “The King’s Speech” being the sweep of sweeps.

And one more thing, I’d like to point out. In CONCLUSION, Academy voters in ALLLLL disciplines and branches get to vote on all the awards (except Foreign Film, Documentaries, and Shorts, where you have to sign in and actually ATTEND those screenings to vote in those categories.) So the Academy Voting Ballot is something you can go, check, check, check and TICK ALL THE BOXES, as Colin and Geoffrey are both wont to say. And just vote “The King’s Speech” ticket for everything!

And not to be outdone by the Brits, I also predict that even though “The King’s Speech” won SEVEN awards, the Oscar vote count will be higher, much higher, maybe even historic. The Oscar ballot is designed for sweeps, since in the below the line categories, the technicians are listed by their names and their films are not even listed! A lot of cross-checking has to be done filling out the AMPAS ballot to vote-split. It’s easier to just look at the “For You Consideration” screener of your favorite film and just go, tick, tick, BOOM from there. And I think most do.

Harvey Weinstein is probably fuming about the seven BAFTAS his “King” didn’t win. But not me! I’m thrilled with all the events happening around this beautiful, beautiful film!

“King’s Speech” wins SAGs’ Best Cast! Colin Firth Best Actor!

“The King’s Speech” just continued its’ road to Oscar glory by winning the SAG Award for Best Ensemble, the Screen Actors Guild equivalent of Best Picture. And of course, Colin Firth won Best Actor! Again! Long Live the King!

Best line of the night ~ C.Firth, “I’d like to thank security for letting me into the building.”

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, but a joyous broken record, HALLEJUAH! And Congratulations to Colin, Geoffrey Rush, Helena Bonham-Carter and all the rest of that astounding cast! There’s nothing stopping “The King’s Speech” now on the road to Oscar!

Only I wish Geoffrey Rush and Helena B-C had won in their Best Supporting Categories losing to Christian(ugh)Bale and Melissa Leo, both for “The Fighter.”

Bale gave his usual cringe-worthy speech with the added embarrassment of having the real Dickie Ecklund, the person he played, jump up on stage, too. It really was too much.

 Then Mark Wahlberg admitted, while he was introducing his own film, that he told Eckland to do that…Was that covering or the truth?

You can bet dollars to donuts that the Academy is NOT going to let that happen on Oscar night. I mean, seriously. It was like Mickey Rourke’s F-bomb riddled acceptance speech  when he won the BAFTA that year for “The Fighter” and THAT lost him the Oscar.

Melissa Leo embarrassed her self LESS than usual. Can’t that brilliant woman learn how to give a speech? She ALMOST segued into a political, pro-union rant. A better dress than the forgettable ones we’ve seen her in thus far, but remember Leo isn’t nominated for a BAFTA so she can’t win there. Although Amy Adams could. And so, of course, could Helena Bonham-Carter!

I still don’t think BOTH are going to win the Oscars. We’ve got the BAFTAS next where Geoffrey Rush(who gave an INCREDIBLE speech accepting the Best Ensemble Award) and Helena B-C could very well both triumph. And give better speechs than Leo and Bale. Rush’s speech is going to resonate with Academy members, too. He named EVERY SINGLE CHILD ACTOR in TKS! Very moving and VERY classy! AND Claire Bloom! “Who puts us one degree away from Charlie Chaplin.” That ALONE could make the undecided AMPAS voters vote him in right there. A class, not a brass, act.

Oh, and Natalie More-Pregnant-Than-Ever Portland won Best Actress. That’s the same four people marching in formation to the podium at EVERY SINGLE AWARDS SHOW! Like last year with Bullock, Bridges, Christophe Waltz and Mo’Nique. BORR-RING!

And “The Joy of Typing” got NOTHING! Which is what it deserved! WHAT A REVERSAL OF FORTUNE! This is one for the Oscar history books and I hope TKS and co. are celebrating all the way til the end of February! And the Big Night itself!

The only big award show left before the Oscars is the BAFTAs and I guess we all know how THAT kudofest is going to go!

What a wonderful weekend of awards’ joy this has been! Last night Tom Hooper wins the DGA and tonight, Best SAG Ensemble! WOW! Hollywood has gone Brit crazy! And it’s starting to remind me of Ben Hur’s year when it won 12 out of 12.

Sasha Stone, over at www.awardsdaily.com

is now saying, buried deep in the comments section on the SAGs that she thinks that TKS is going to REALLY, REALLY sweep. And if Sasha, who was not in TKS’ corner in any way shape or form, is saying this, then it MUST BE SO!

Congratulations, and thank you, Colin, Geoffrey, Helena, Tom and Harvey for creating this Masterpiece of a Movie and for letting me be a small part of its’ Road to Glory!

Now on to the BAFTAs and let’s win there too!!!!!!

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