a.k.a. "The Oscar Messenger"

Posts tagged ‘Abraham Lincoln’

Oscar Collision ~ Too Many Best Actors

This year the Oscar Best Actor category is screaming with the sounds of too many viable Best Actor candidates colliding with & virtually  killing each other to get into the race. There are only five slots. And seven talked-about performances.

Everyone puts Daniel Day Lewis’s Abraham Lincoln at the top. But I don’t. And cold, technical performance that bored me to tears and left me wanting something that Day-Lewis doesn’t have in abundance – warmth. He’s not a warm cuddly Lincoln. He’s, well, a British Lincoln.

Why couldn’t they have gotten an American actor to play Lincoln? That’s basically what’s wrong with it. PLUS it’s like eating Brussel Sprouts for two and a half hours. It’s good for you, THEY SAY. But oh the taste!

But people are still ranking him #1. But he’s got two Oscars already. A stumbling block you can’t erase. But he will likely get nominated despite the Brussels Sprout Factor.

Most likely to unseat him is the still unseen Hugh Jackman in”Les Miserables.” He’s also the only one of these guys in a musical. Which is either a huge plus, or a huge minus.I’m sure the always terrific Jackson delivers as he always has in the past. He’s never had a part like this before. He’s hosted the Oscars, successfully, and if he’s as good as I’m hearing, he’s in like flint.

Denzel Washington has gotten rave reviews for his alcoholic pilot in”Flight” and  is doing very well at the box office. He’s an almost knee-jerk reaction. If he’s THIS good, they just nominate him. But he’s got two Oscars already, too, like Day-Lewis, this is probably an obstacle he can’t overcome. Or hide.And “Flight” is being named “a popcorn movie.”

I don’t think Bradley Cooper in the just opening Rom Com “Silver Linings Playbook” is gonna make the cut. It’s a comedy and he’s totally overshadowed by his co-star Jennifer Lawrence who looks like she’s going to not only get nominated but win.

Cooper, playing a manic-depressive SCREAMS his way through two-thirds of the movie, TRYING to make you believe he’s manic. It’s inaccurate and I found THAT depressing. Bi-polar disorder is not something to be laughed about and certainly not something to be treated lightly. With the competition so tight, I don’t think he makes this cut.

Someone in a lightweight film, with serious undertones is Sir Anthony Hopkins, playing a beloved Hollywood Legend Sir Alfred Hitchcock, in the droll biopic “Hitchcock.” The Academy nominates him constantly and his total physical transformation into the corpulent legendary Master of Suspense hits all the right notes and is poignant and winning, too. He’s got one Oscar for “Silence of the Lambs” which was inspired by the serial killer Ed Gein, who is also a character in Hitchcock. His Hitchcock is haunted by the right ghosts. I say he gets in. AND he’s SIR Anthony Hopkins after all. And the Academy always feels it needs that touch of class. I liked his Hitch so much, I’ve seen it twice! Unlike “Lincoln” which I hope I never see again as long as I live.

Life’s too short for another “Lincoln.”

And then we have crybaby Joaquim Phoenix, who like Bradley Cooper, is in a Weinstein Co. production. His comments that Oscars are “total utter bullshit” may have eliminated him for this very competitive race. “The Master” was a polarizing movie that hasn’t done well anywhere. He, like Cooper, could get left out. He doesn’t have an Oscar, and probably at this rate never will. He’s apologizing all over the place now, but the damage his done. Will the ever-snobby, but sometimes forgiving, Actor’s Branch nominate him anyway? It such a tight year, it’s not looking solid for him. And Hitchcock himself NEVER won an Oscar for Best Director. Now being acknowledged as the greatest film maker of all time, the Academy may want to sort of correct his over-sight.

Then there’s the out-of-nowhere news that recent Supporting Actor winner of a couple of years back German Actor Christophe Waltz is going lead for the also still-unseen “Django Unchained.” A slightly desperate Weinstein ploy, methinks, because they sense that neither Bradley Cooper nor Joaquim Phoenix, will get in.

THEY know, the Weinstein Co. they KNOW how the tea leafs are reading and they are not spelling out TWC, as they have in the past two years for their magnificent winners in Best Picture and Best Actor, “The King’s Speech” and Colin Firth and “The Artist” and Jean DuJardin.

Putting Waltz in lead says something about his co-star Jamie Foxx, ANOTHER previous Oscar Winner for “Ray”. Guess they aren’t even considering he’s got the right stuff this year for a nod. And if he’s going up against Denzel….

Finally, the only other serious Best Actor contender is the simply stupendous Jon Hawkes, as the heart-breaking polio victim, in an iron lung no less. The Degree of Difficulty in “The Sessions” is off the charts, and I think that is going to rate with the Actor’s Branch.

So how I see it now – It’s Hugh Jackman, Sir Anthony Hopkins, Daniel Day-Lewis, Denzel Washington and Jon Hawkes.

With all of the Weinstein boys canceling each other out.

Sounds unbelievable, but it COULD happen.

“Zero Dark Thirty” Moved into January! Oops! There goes Oscar!

When a major film studio, in this case, Sony, or Big Sony, as some call it, moves a release date, OUT of the Oscar season, in this case “Zero Dark Thirty”, and plans to open it in JANUARY! What does this tell us about this as yet unseen movie? Well,by implication the news isn’t good.

I think it means the studio does not have the faith in this major Oscar contender that it should.
It’s about the search and destroy mission that finally ended the life of Osama Bin Laden. And the trailers for it, are well, let’s say they look astonishingly like ANOTHER Oscar seeking movie, “Argo” that is currently Number One at the Box-Office. Uh-Oh!

Both, too, have the same Film Editor, working with the Oscar-winning Katherine Bigelow, and her screenwriter Marc Boal of Best Picture winner of 2009 “The Hurt Locker.” Both are regarding Middle Eastern terrorists subjects. One is just KILLING at the box-office, a crowd-pleaser that is pleasing crowds everywhere, and the other is still shrouded in deepest secrecy. Like for instance we didn’t know until this week, when Sony announced it, that the wonderful Jessica Chastain is playing the leading role, and is going to be campaigned in lead! For Best Actress!

Is this too little too late? Maybe. Maybe not. The brilliant Chastain could read the Canadian Yellow Pages and make them riveting, but, again, in the trailers, she utters NOT ONE WORD! Why?

Is there something wrong with her voice? Or with the vocal choices she has made under Katherine Bigelow’s usually astute directon?.Is she off a bit? This reminds me of the way “Lincoln”s trailer where they were showing Daniel Day-Lewis, and not letting us hear him for quite a while…

This smacks of cover-up to me.

If you’ve got a great performance, you ADVERTISE it, not hide it. Like say, Universal is doing with their great trailer of “Les Miserables” with Anne Hathaway nailing “I Dreamed a Dream.” They’ve practically guaranteed Annie an Oscar for Best Supporting Actress by this smart campaign move.

Oh, sure, Academy folks will be able to see it, EVENTUALLY. “Zero Dark Thirty” I’m talking about. But what about the critical critics groups that announce FIRST? The New York Film Critics Circle, the L.A. Film Critics, the National Board of Review. Will THEY be able to see it by their voting deadlines in late November?

One thing’s for sure, November is going to be one wild and crazy Oscar month! Phase One of the Oscar Season, as it is now being called.

As the French say, J’attends avec impatience!

“Lincoln” is Boring Tweet Clarification

So, is it a Tempest-in-a-Teapot that was? Or was it the real deal? Super Critic Thelma Adams picked up my Tweet Delete story and confronted Lou Lumenick of the NYPost about it. on Facebook. Thelma, full disclosure, used to be one of the New York Posts film critics herself.

This is all regarding an article in the NY Post about a New Jersey viewer stumbling into a sneak peek preview of Steven Spielberg’s Oscar-seeking “Lincoln” which doesn’t open for another 7 weeks or so.

The viewer was incensed that it was so BOR-ING.

And Lou told Thelma, on Facebook, that yes, the story was up, and yes, the story went down, along with the rest of the New York Post yesterday, eividently and now, this morning his story, tweet and all are back up and readable at www.nypost.com  And no, DreamworksDisney did not make him do it. He has heard nothing from them he claimed.

Technical glitches do happen of course, even to major newspapers.

Jeffrey Wells was suspicious, nonetheless, and you can read his version of things at http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com

I believe the film goer. A congressional procedural movie on the passing of a bill, however important, can be VERY dull to watch as politicians drone on and on…I get it. That IS dull. And if that is what the film is mainly about…well, it sounds like a history LECTURE, rather than a film. A MOVIE. It should MOVE.

According to this disgruntled film-goer it’s just dull, dull, dull.

Well, the trailer is dull, too.

The positive note that this viewer struck was the appreciation of Daniel Day-Lewis’s Lincoln, and Tommy Lee Jones and Hal Holbrook’s performances, too. Sally Field, as I reported, was roundly dissed as “mis-cast.”

And there you have it. That’s the story, folks. Read Jeff Wells. Read Thelma Adams. Read Lou Lumenick of the NYPost and you can make up your own minds about this.

NY Post Takes Down “Lincoln is boring” tweet!

Per Jeff Wells at www.hollywood-elsewhere.com Lou Lumenick has now had to take down the “Lincoln” is boring!” tweet! Uh oh! And Jeff linked to it, but I can’t find it anywhere!

Jeff has advertising from Dreamworks. I, you may notice, have absolutely no ads, whatsoever. I’ve heard nothing. But no ads=not important enough to bother with.

But believe me, this was THERE! And now, it’s not!

“Lincoln” Sneaks in NJ, Viewer Tweets NY Post “It’s Boring”!!

NY Post’s film critic Lou Lumenick received an outraged twitter review & email from a film goer who saw the sneak preview of “Lincoln” in NJ yesterday and complained that the film was “boring.” As Lumenick parsed it “take it with a grain of salt.” But the way he presents it in his article www.nypost.com ,it DOES sound as dry as dust.
It evidently keeps most of its’ action in the Congressional rooms and hallways, eschewing the more dramatic CIVIL WAR ITSELF that was raging outside. Nevermind the horrors of slavery. It’s all about LEGISLATION. I knew it. I just knew it. Screenwriter Tony Kushner is  very academic, almost pedantic sometimes. And it looks like  this time is one of THOSE times. AND it’s nearly three hours!

Given this info, plus the rather strange and deadly trailer of “Lincoln” that popped up last week, I think Dreamworks may have a real historic Oscar dud on its’ hands. If Hollywood hands Oscar a lemon, Oscar doesn’t make lemonade. He just nominates SOMEBODY ELSE.

This enraged viewer wrote to Lumenick that “It WILL NOT be nominated for Best Picture”! But thought Daniel Day-Lewis would. Sally Field as Mary Todd Lincoln was “miscast”. I believe that, too. And this news also makes sense of Fox Searchlight’s rushing “Hitchcock” into release on Thanksgiving weekend. Making it eligible for this year’s Oscars, not next and putting Sir Anthony Hopkins’ Sir Alfred Hitchcock right in the, er, thick of things.

Best Actor seems so crowded this year. With DDL, Joaquin Phoenix(“The Master”), Hugh Jackman{“Les Miserables”) and John Hawkes in Searchlight’s other contender “The Sessions” all but locked down. Means that “Life of Pi” and “Flight” coming up fast at the New York Film Festival and which I’m doomed, er, destined  to see very soon, might not be All That.

And then there’s the volatile, still-open-for-business Best Actress category, which Dame Helen as Lady Alma Hitchcock, who is evidently at the center of the story of this movie, and yes, it’s a mature love story, could slip right in there. Knocking out another slippery Dame. Judi. For Fox Searchlight’s “Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” and/or Fox 2.0 ‘s OTHER Best Actress filly in the race, 8-year-old Qu’venzhane Wallis.  For “Beasts of the -Southern Wild.” I personally don’t think Fox Searchlight is acting SURE about either of their ladies-in-question.

Nevertheless,  Searchlight saw a place and decided to fill it with the formidable weight-y, Oscar-baity  Sir Alfred.

Hollywood loves Hollywood more and more each day.

See last year’s, Best Picture “The Artist” which won four other Oscars, too, including Best Actor for Jean Dujardin and “Hugo” also about early filmmaking, though in France. “Hugo” got four technical Oscars, but they are Oscars nonetheless.

Shot VERY quickly by documentarian Sasha Gervase, whose only other previous helming was the hilarious doc “Anvil:The Story of Anvil” and it seems he got every thing right!

Doc makers know how to make that first take work. That’s all you’ve got in documentaries. You have no choice. You have to GET THAT SHOT, or else, it’s gone forever. It’s called Run and Gun and I like working that way myself on my TV show http://www.youtube.com/StephenHoltShow.

And “Anvil” was that rarest of docs. One with a sense of humor!

So, back to “Lincoln”, even though I’m sure the feelings of the film-goer that contacted Lumenick were genuine, Stephen Spielberg’s films, even the weakest, like “Munich”, or misguided like “War Horse”, they STILL get a Best Picture nomination regardless, but in a field of ten possibles, I’m still sure “Lincoln” is IN.

But look at Sir Alfred go! His corpse is dancing! Maybe all the way to the Oscars! And in his lifetime, let it be noted Hitch never won a Best Director Oscar himself. Maybe he’ll be getting one posthumously.

He was one of the greatest filmmakers of all time. THEE greatest in MY book.

TIFF ads names to Supp.Oscar Race & “Lincoln” trailer sounds WRONG!

TIFF is SUCH a leveler. And always a surprise,too. Coming out of “Quartet,” one of the hottest tickets in town, was not only a VERY major Oscar chance at Best Actress for Dame Maggie Smith, but also for her supporting co-star, the other female member of the titular quartet of ex-Opera singers, Pauline Collins.

Collins dithers delightfully, and has alllll the audiences’ sympathy in the big, soon-to-be-infamous “Flower Scene” with Dame Maggie. I will say no more.It’s a massive spoiler. Once that scene happened I knew “Oscar Nomination for Pauline in Supporting.”

She’s been nominated before, too. For Best Actress, a number of years back, for “Shirley Valentine” and so she’s no stranger to Oscar.

A very solid supporting turn is done by Willliam H. Macy in “The Sessions” as a conflicted Catholic priest, who has to listen to all of the FOR SURE ROCK SOLID BEST ACTOR NOMINEE John Hawkes’ awkward sexual confesstions. It’s comic, but he’s very good (he always is) and I don’t think he’s even been nominated before. Shame, Academy, shame…Unless it was for “Fargo” many moons ago…

Jude Law in “Anna Karenina” is a shoo-in for a Supp. Actor nod, and maybe even a win, as his almost unrecognizable turn as Anna’s dull-as-paint husband Karenin. He shaved his hairline back and wears tiny little specatacles that transform his face entirely. And his performance as a stiff, repressed beaureaucrat ,who is boring  his wife Anna to tears, never bores the audience. No mean feat.

Then we have the always nominatable Phillp Seymour Hoffman, in what is really a lead, in “The Master.” The Venice Film Festival jury gave both Hoffmand and co-star Joaquin Phoenix a joint Best Actor Award.

Also finding herself in the Supporting category may be a surprised and always naked Helen Hunt, who thought she was playing a lead in “The Sessions.”Oscar Goddess Sasha Stone always points out how the Academy always awards female nudity and no one, believe me, NO ONE has ever shown so much of herself onscreen as Helen Hunt does as a sex “worker” in this terrific tearjerker about a man in an iron lung (Hawkes) who wants to finally experience sex before he dies. He does. And he does. And that’s the plot of “The Seesions.”

And from earlier in the year, before the essential TIFF-winnowing, we have both Dame Maggie Smith(yes, HER again) and her Downtown Abbey co-star Penelope Wilton in the box-office/senior citizen smash “Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”both being giving campaigns from Fox Seachlight in Supporting. And so is Bill Nighy for that film.

Don’t know whether they’ve dropped Dwight Henry off their campaign roster for this excellent non-actor’s first ever performances as Qu’venzhane Wallis, dead beat dad in “Beasts of the Southern Wild.”

And last but not least, let’s not overlook Michael Pena’s fine, fine work in the police actioner “End of Watch.” He could be this year’s Demian Bechir.

I happened to watch the just-dropped “Lincoln” trailer today. Once, first, without sound, and then again tonight with it. And at first I thought all those early Oscar predictions of Tom O’Neil’s crew at “Gold Derby” nevermind “The Gurus o’ Gold”‘ were right on…then WITH the sound, everybody’s voices sounded WRONG. Esp. Daniel Day Lewis as Lincoln! He looks great but sounds like a baseball player! Brad Pitt in “Moneyball!”

If it looks like they’re hiding DDL in the trailer, they ARE!

Let us not forget “War Horse” and the great trailer that promised so much….and then gave us…well, not that much.

Just like “Munich”! Spielberg’s next-to-last Oscar foray.

Uh-oh!

Snoring and pretentious and over-hyped. Here we go again!

I thought we just went through this last year!

Oscar Updates as Gold Derby Puts Leo at NY#1 for “Django”for Supp! Dwight Henry Is #2 “Beasts”!

The great Tom O’Neil lets us know just what is what with the Oscar race on an almost daily basis. Certainly weekly. And for sure, monthly. Now that we’re reaching the last day of June, it’s interesting to note that the race that has changed THE MOST is Best Supporting Actor!

June 1, it was wacky Jaoquim Phoenix for Paul Thomas Anderson’s Scientology take “The Master“. Now, less than a month later, Joaquim is nowhere to be found at the top of this category. Possibly because Oscar Goddess Sasha Stone of http://www.awardsdaily.com clued Tom in that Joaquim is THE LEAD in “The Master.” Lol….And who’s at #1 now? Why Leonardo DiCaprio, as a scuzzy, sleazy slave owner in Quentin Tarantino’s Civil War shoot’em up “Django Unchained!” With Harvey Weinstein at the helm, this could certainly happen.

However, right behind him, is non-actor until now, newcomer Dwight Henry playing Hushpuppy‘s abusive, alcoholic father for “Beasts of the Southern Wild”! I don’t think Dwight Henry was even on the chart last time I checked! Go Dwight! He’s a baker turned actor and really scores in this magnificent debut film of Benh Zeitlin.

Phenom-of-the-Year Zeitlin has NOT managed to crack the top five of the directors chart. Go to http://www.goldderby.com and see who the rest are. Usual suspects, all. All previous Oscar Winners.Spielberg, Tom Hooper, Ang Lee, Except Paul Thomas Anderson who tops the list, and I’m so sure won’t win. “The Master” is going not to be a loved-by-the-masses film, I’m feeling. Scientology isn’t a topic that the ticket buying public is going to warm to. Where the now critically acclaimed “Beasts of the Southern Wild” sure is.

And it’s 6-year-old heroine has cracked the top five of the Best Actress contenders. That category is still headed by my darling Laura Linney for “Hyde Park on Hudson.” #2 in Best Actress is Carey Mulligan for “The Great Gatsby” and #3 is Keira Knightley for “Anna Karenina.” Keira’s always nominatable, as of course is Laura. Previous recent winner ++is #4 for the French language “Of Rust and Bone.” And then comes Qu’venzhane Wallis at #5.

I think it speaks to the strength of “Beasts” A+++ reception that BOTH Dwight Henry and Qu’venzhane Wallis have popped into the top five since the month began! And Dwight Henry is #2! Higher than Benh Zeitlin or QW(as I will now abbreviate her). The charges of racism that were thrown the Academy’s way when Viola Davis lost(though Octavia Spenser won – albeit in Supp.) for “The Help.” Dwight Henry could be the beneficiary of the famous Academy catch-up boomerang effect.

What they don’t do right one year, they correct the next.

And it’s also interesting to note that Anne Hathaway still seems to be a mortal lock for Best Supporting Actress for “Les Miserables,.” nailing one of the best trailers in movie history, which is already playing at a theater near you.

Likewise Daniel Day-Lewis in Best Actor and “Lincoln” for Best Picture remain where they were June 1.

It’s the arrival of “Beasts of the Southern Wild” that has shaken this list up! Good! No! Great! Go Team “Beast”!

Clash of the Oscar Titans! Oscar Goddess, Oscar Grouch & Gold Derby go Head-to- Head in Historic Pod-Cast!!!

Just back in town, to find to my great joy and amazement that Oscar Goddess Sasha Stone, Oscar Grouch Jeffrey Wells and Gold Derby’s Tom O’Neil just did a historic podcast on Tom’s also historic June 1 Oscar predix list. June 1! Yes, June 1! I’ve already discussed his list in a previous posting and so I wondered just what more could be said by all three together at once.

Clash of the Oscar Titans? Well, kinda.

Sasha Stone at http://www.awardsdaily.com of course, is the person I agree with most. No surprise to my readers, dear cineasstes all, but to MY surprise, Sasha I and seemed more in sync that EVAH!

She feels, and Tom did too, and I heartily concur, that the casting of Daniel Day-Lewis as Abraham Lincoln in Steven Spielberg’s “Lincoln”, not due until the holidays, is highly tricky and  risky. The film rises and falls on his performance, needles to say, Abraham. Lincoln was not a bombastic man or a scenery-chewing role like Billy the Butcher in “Gangs of New York” or that awful creature he played in “There Will Be Blood.” And won a second (and UNDESERVED) Oscar for.

When he goes introspective or quiet as he is bound to with a subtle man like Lincoln, he is, as Sasha said, “a cold motherfucker”. Which of course is what ruined “Nine,” and also a passion project “Rose” which is uber-talented wife Rebecca Miller directed him in. Blah. This demi-god of acting is NOT infallible.

So we can safely say that the Best Actor category is still up in the air.

Even more to the point and very questionable IMHO still is playwright Tony Kushner’s screenplay for this, the saga of Lincoln’s entire life. Kushner tends to overwrite and his plays all end up VERY long. He’s not a concise, clear screenwriter. Witness “Munich” as a case in point, also with Spielberg. Sure it eeked out a Best Picture nod, in the end, but it was not the masterpiece Time Magazine’s pre-mature cover story suggested it would be. Far from it. And the numbing pain of his three-hour “Mother Courage” in Central Park several seasons back, I can’t forgive or forget. He “adapted” his own translation of Brecht’s great play, which was NEVER known to be LONG. And poor Meryl Streep gave one of her worst performances ever as she struggled to keep this corpse afloat. I thought she was going to have a heart attack right there on the stage!

Sasha also pointed out that Tom’s Gold Derby-ites had mixed up the categories for “The Master” and had Phillip Seymour Hoffman as the lead, and Joaquin Phonenix as Supporting and Tom O’Neil agreed! So there’s THAT confusion. As if we needed more.

Sasha also iterated, and again I agree with her, that the two big films to look out for for Best Picture and in many other categories are “Les Miserables” and “Beasts of the Southern Wild.” And again Tom O. agreed with her.And once again, I do, too. Even at this great distance in June this seems clear.

Jeffrey Wells of http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com still seemed like he was in Prague, and perhaps that’s where he was calling in from. If it was in L.A., he really did seem out of the loop indeed. And called this lively discussion “A revelation.” And added that he’d have to update his Oscar Balloon. Oy, Jeffrey. Get with the program.

Sasha felt that Oscar movies need to make you FEEL, and I couldn’t agree more. The ones thatultimately win, I mean.

And of all those out there, “Beasts of the Southern Wild” (seen by all) and “Les Miserables”(still unseen until the holidays) are the two films who could go all the way.

I’m interviewing all involved with “Beasts” on Thursday there in NYC. Which I came back into town for. And I am very happy to finally be able to ask the 23-year-old Wunderkind Behn Zeitlin, the co-screenwriter and the director, of this mind-blowing milestone of a film just HOW he created this cinematic miracle.

“Beasts” may be too edgie and too Indie to WIN Best Picture. But what of it extraordinary child actress, the now eight-year-old Qu’venzhane Wallis?

This is undoubtedly the best performance I’ve ever seen by a child, but could she win Best Actress???? Sasha seems to think she could and that that is the category where she is going to end up. And again, I find myself in astonished, but delighted agreement.

She’s got EXTRAORDINARY chemistry with the camera. And her performance haunts my mind.

Sasha said “I pity the actress that is going to have to go up against her for Best Actress.”  And she and Tom discussed the others in contention in THAT category. Laura Linney for “Hyde Park on Hudson”, Keira Knightley in “Anna Karenina”, and Marion Cotillard in “Of Rust and Bone.

Maybe they’ll create a Special Oscar just for Qu’venshane. Like they did for Shirley Temple and Judy Garland back in the ’30s.

And, after reading all this, you want to hear MORE. Go to http://www.goldderby.com and you’ll find it all there. It’s really worth a listen to all you Oscarwatchers out there.

Tom and Sasha agreed more than I ever thought they would. And I agree with them more than I ever thought I would.

Further Oscar Parsing and Predix at Gold Derby by Tom O’Neill

Taking a look at www.Goldderby.com  Tom O’Neil’s never-quiet-for-a-moment Oscar site, I realized that I hadn’t gone ALLLL the way with the other categories he and his pals were predicting beyond saying “Lincoln” was going to win Best Picture. I wrote about that a few days back, and I looked at it again, and realized I hadn’t discussed his OTHER predix BEYOND “Lincoln.”

Did I mention I didn’t think Daniel Day-Lewis is all set up to win a THIRD Oscar for his portrayal of Abraham Lincoln himself? Well Tom does. And for Best Actress, he’s got as Laura Linney as Number One for “Hyde Park on the Hudson,” which would be wonderful if that happened. And it could. Laura’s been nominated three times and never won. And she ages decades in it as F.D.R.’s secret-until-now mistress.

For Best Supporting Actor he’s got Joaquin Phoenix for “The Master“, Paul Thomas Anderson’s new film (due later this year) This could also happen. Phoenix has been nominated twice and never won. And this is one of Harvey Weinstein’s year-end Oscar hopeful films. It’s about Scientology and Phillip Seymour Hoffman is the lead, playing, I guess L.Ron Hubbard.

This sounds more like a strong possibility to me. Just based on HARVEY’s recent track record with Meryl Streep,”The Artist,”Jean Dujardin, Michel Hazanviscius, “The King’s Speech”, Colin Firth & Tom Hooper, a nomination for Phonenix, if he cuts the Oscar mustard,  is for sure likely. But a win? He’s up-against another Harvey contender, Leonardo di Caprio, of all people, as the villain in “Django Unchained.” Quentin Tarantino’s latest, which is still shooting, making Anne Thompson of Indiewire’s Thompson-on-Hollywood wonder if it will even be finished on time for its’ Christmas Day release.

And Tom, last but not least, has Anne Hathaway for Best Supporting Actress for “Les Miserables” and this is the MOST likely prediction to come true, solidly. As the trailer of “Les Miz” Universal released caused SUCH a, well, universal ripple throughout the blogosphere, and the song “I Dreamed a Dream” which is the only one performed, yes, by Ms. Hathaway, and she totally magnificently nails it.

It’s too early to predict all these things anyway. But it doesn’t stop Tom O. Check all his other race-track odds on literally hundreds of potential nominees, (he’s leaving NO ONE out. No turn un-stoned) He’s not missing a trick. But of course, it’s Tom O’Neil, so he very well may be right.

But like for instance if say “Lincoln” does win Best Picture, Steven Spielberg would win Best Director. Not Paul Thomas Anderson.

I would say all bets are off until after the Toronto International Film Festival unfurls its’ Oscary wares in Sept.

Oscar Goddess Sasha Stone Parses the Oscars! In June!

Well, Tom O’Neil’s Oscar throw-down at http://www.goldderby.com has certainly stirred the waters! Oscar Goddess Sasha Stone at http://www.awardsdaily.com parses even further with “Is It Too Early To Predict the Oscars?” And yes, it is. The Silly Season, as it was so named by David Kehr of the NY Times when he pounded the Red Carpet beat with his historic Carpetbagger column, IS far away.

But it’s NOT for those behind-the-scenes folks, the industry peeps who are assembling all this for our delectation. This is stuff is planned YEARS sometimes in advance. And carefully planned, too. Yes, there are people called Oscar Consultants, who are a whole breed of PR people unique unto themselves. And behind the scenes they are working like dogs chasing a bone. Already. Yes, already.

Sasha and others like her have revealed how much it is the Oscar campaigns behind the actual voting that really does sway, yes, the actual voting.

At this time last year, who woulda thunk “The Artist” was gonna win Best Picture? And Jean Dujardin Best Actor? And certainly, Meryl Streep winning her THIRD Oscar was unexpected and a shock to all Oscarologists. Who could’ve predicted it? Well, actually, Tom O’Neill sorta did.

That’s why one has to give credence to his prognostications. If you followed closely at Gold Derby, VERY closely, who could feel the tide shifting at the last minute AWAY from George Clooney and towards Jean Dujardin. A lot of people saw that coming. But Streep? Only O’Neil. But not his staff of Ditto-heads(I refuse to call them Butt-heads, though my spell check changed it to that…lol…) all kept saying Viola Davis.

That’s why, for instance, I give Tom more credence than say, Anne Thompson at Indiewire and Thompson on Hollywood last year. She stubbornly clung on to George Clooney ~ AND Viola Davis til the very last.  And she was wrong.

Just to show that the Oscars still have some life in them.

I knew the Weinstein wizards were working like crazy last year behind the scenes and subtlety as is their wont. But I read the tea-leaves wrong and thought it was Michelle Williams, not Meryl, who would reap the rewards.

Viola Davis, ably abetted by that egregrious Entertianment Weekly issue and cover which pictured her and George Clooney, dressed to the nines,  getting out of a limo, like they had actually won already!. That proved to be BOTH their ondoings. An Academy Voter upon seeing that cover and then reading the embarassing self-congratulatory interviews with BOTH of them “WELL! The Nerve! They haven’t won YET! “would be an Academy members thinking, I thought at the time and still do. Or “Don’t tell US who to vote for!?!“…Viola Davis was doing herself NO GOOD, but the obvious heavy-handedness of all her talk show appearances. I mean, she was on “The View” FOUR TIMES!?!? If that wasn’t overkill…I don’t know what is…

I know. I know. Disney owns ABC, which “The View” is on, and Disney had “The Help.” But in the end as I said at the time, Disney does not know how to run an Oscar campaign.

Whereas Harvey Weinstein does. Of course. But he has to have the goods. I don’t know if “Django Unchained” ANOTHER bloody shoot’em by Quentin Tarantino, is gonna fly all the way with Oscar voters, who historically have avoided blood-shed. IF THEY CAN HELP IT. You can of course point to “The Departed” winning recently and also “No Country For Old Men” But as Sasha has pointed out there were other stories going on in those years i.e. Marty Scorcese never won & ditto, the Coens for “NCFOM”.

I wonder if Universal who has “Les Misearables” is going to be able to do the trick this year.

Paraphrasing Sasha, she feels that Tom O’Neil in listing “War Horse”. oops! I mean “Lincoln,” as the Frontrunner NOW, is putting an albatross, around “Lincoln”s neck.  Or as I’m calling it handing Spielberg “The Golden Albatross” award, this far ahead. Sasha is saying basically that Frontrunners never win. Which is a very interesting observation. Especially lately.

Some people feel that that “Les Miz” trailer with Anne Hathaway is “pre-mature” but I don’t think so. It’s established Hathaway as the one to beat in Best Supporting Actress, and the Best Supporting Actress race is run by a whole different set of rules. I mean, look. That’s where “The Help” won. And the year before that that’s where Melissa Leo, totally off her own bat, won. So different rules apply.All of Disney’s heaving breathing and heavy lifting on “The Help” reaped them ONLY a Best Supporting Actress win. Personally that’s my own favorite category, but still…

Also, Universal is trying to establish a fan-base with a genre that the fanboys of today just don’t flock to. Musicals.  Just from that point alone, I think “Les Miz” has an uphill battle. But the general public is not the Academy.

I mean, just look at this year’s big grossers “Hunger Games” and “Avengers” both of which are films I just can’t bring myself to see….at least not yet…will the Academy award box-office over quality? They certainly haven’t been looking at the bottom line with films like “The Artist” or “The King’s Speech”….Who do they listen to? Well, Harvey Weinstein. But “Django Unchained”? Quentin Tarantino??? I don’t know about that. This sounds like it’s gonna be “Inglorious Basterds” all over again with that film.

And in conclusion, no it’s never to early to predict the Oscars. That’s what we do.

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