a.k.a. "The Oscar Messenger"

Army of OscarsOk, the Oscar Nominations are going to be announced at 8:15 AM EST. That’s at the ungodly hour of 5:15 am PST! Ugh! That’s sooooo early! I don’t know how the Left Coasters do it. And for all these years! They must stay up all night, they’re so excited. But this year’s announcements are going to be very different. No live audience. It’s going to be pre-taped on a live feed. I don’t understand the contradiction of that statement. It’s just that the real audience of press, press agents and publicists, will be gone….To be replaced by what? A simple staid staged reading of the lists of the nominees .Zzzzzzzzz……

That sounds like they’re letting all the air out of the balloon. And they’re worried about ratings! Although I’m excited as I’ve always been. some people think that this has been an off-year. Not I.

In any case here are my own predictions. I’m pretty sure of most of them. As sure as anyone can be. Of course, there will be surprises. Like for instance if they put Viola Davis in lead. That would blow this whole Oscar operation to smithereens.

Let’s start with Supporting.

  1. Viola Davis “Fences”(IF she stays in this category, she wins.)
  2. Michelle Williams “Manchester by the Sea” (If Viola switches out, Michelle wins.)
  3. Naomie Harris “Moonlight”( I’ve been saying this ever since I saw her astounding portrayal of the crack-head Mom at the NYFF.)
  4. Nicole Kidman “Lion” (vulnerable. But she’s got Harvey Weinstein behind her.)
  5. Octavia Spenser(The safe of choice from “Hidden Figures” She also got SAG and BAFTA, but she’s won already.”
  6. Possible  Replacement by Janelle Mornae :”Hidden Figures” which is surging.and she’s also very good in “Moonlight.”)Oscars 2015Best Supporting Actor ~1. Marshela Ali( Didn’t win Globe. Very small but effective part in a gay movie & the Academy is notoriously homophobic. Look what they did to
    “Carol” last year!  2. Dev Patel, “Lion” (Coming on strong with the Weinstein machine behind him. But I wonder…) 3. Aaron Taylor-Johnson “Nocturnal Animals”(He won the Globes and is nominated for BAFTA. No one who has won a Golden Globe as ever not also received an Oscar Nomination. I’m thinking “Nocturnal Animals” is stronger than people expected. Pictured below.)aaron-taylor-johnson-winning-golden-globe 4. Lucas Hedges “Manchester by the Sea” (He was brilliant in it and though he’s only 21, I wonder if the film would be as unforgettable as it is without his wonderful/funny/sad/angry  performance.) 5. Kevin Costner “Hidden Figures” (They always have to honor a veteran and “Hidden Figures” is surging at the box-office, like “Nocturnal Animals” and “Lion.”)lucas-hedges-1Possible replacement Hugh Grant “Florence Foster Jenkins” (An unnominated veteran but his performance wasn’t that good. He was just sort of THERE.Flat.Twee only goes so far. Not an Oscar-baity performance. Just a dapper prop for Meryl.)
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