a.k.a. "The Oscar Messenger"

BAFTA Leo & KateWell, here’s the shot you’ve all been waiting to see, or not. Two people who I DON’T want to win at the Oscars on Feb.28. Leonardo Di Caprio & Kate Winslet with their pair of BAFTA awards from last night in London for (shoot me now) “The Revenant” and (shoot me again)”Steve Jobs.”

But all is not over dear readers, dear cineastes, although there are no more major(or minor)awards to be given out between now and the Big “O” a week from Sunday. Oscar Voters are busy voting now.Most may have voted already. Voting opened on Friday. And I think most members may have voted BEFORE this big BAFTA haul for “The Revenant.”

And with a stunning quintet win of Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Director, Best Cinematography and Best Sound, “The Revenant” looks like the Big Bear that’s going to eat up the Oscars. Just like in the movie. Which, as you all know, I hated. But not so fast!

BEAUTIFULLY photographed as it was, with natural winter light, and landscapes we’ll never see unless we lived way up in the north, I am fine with it winning Best Cinematography for “Chivo” Lubezski. And the historic win at the DGA for the director Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, was repeated here at BAFTA, and will be, I’m resigned to say, repeating this win at the Oscars. Leo, too.

But will it win Best Picture? The words “Preferential Ballot” have been swirling around in the snowscapes I was slogging through today in New York.Revenant 4

And I saw a glimmer of hope for “Spotlight”, my fave, to win, to surprise, to save the day. You see, the Best Picture Oscar is not voted on like any other of the Golden Guys they are handing out  on  week from Sunday. It’s a simple plurality for all those others categories.

(Why I think Kate Winslet is NOT going to repeat her BAFTA/Golden Globe win I’ve explained in exhaustive detail in the post previous to this one. Read it.)

The preferential ballot is something very complicated. Though you have to list your choices as 1,2, 3, 4, 5,6, 7, 8, it’s the COUNTING of them that changes everything. Let me see if I can illustrate what happens and why.

Here’s my top five for this year.

1.The Danish Girl (pictured below)Alicia 6

2. The Son of SaulTrumbo 3

3. Hitchcock/TruffautHitchcockTruffaut 1

4.RoomRoom 3

5. Trumbo

So let’s just say for the sake of a real argument, my #1, #2, and #3 choices wouldn’t be counted, because those films won’t have gotten a 50% +1 total of other number ones. IF “The Revenant” say, doesn’t get enough #1s on the first count, it triggers a re-distribution of the ballots, and then a re-count. And then the other film that WAS nominated for Best Picture, my #4, would be counted in the “Room” pile, as a #1.  All the remaining Pictures are put into piles, and counted by hand. Anarchic? Arcane? Strange, but true…

Following this?

So it would look like my Number One choice was now “Room.” And what if “Room” didn’t get enough number ones? Well, they just might count my Number Six film, which was “Spotlight.”

Confusing, no?

YES! And I’ve probably gotten this wrong. But I think my #6 choice would now be counted as my #1 and that would be “Spotlight” and would be the way that “Spotlight” may just win the Oscar for Best Picture because “The Revenant” is so divisive, too put it mildly that Oscar Voters would put it on the lowest portion of their list of eight films. Like at #8. THAT could happen. And the film like “Spotlight” or “The Big Short” could win.Spotlight 7

But it sure looks today, after BAFTA, that “The Revenant” is now the winner. It’s going to win many awards, but “Spotlight” or “The Big Short” could win Best Picture. Both will get Screenplay awards. So it looks like they are still in the race. Unless there are so many AMPAS voters who put say, “Spotlight” at #1 to start with, it would just win on a simple plurality on the first tally.

Only Best Picture has been voted on like this. And that’s why we’re seeing so many Best Picture/Best Director splits in recent years. And we may see it again this year. I HOPE! The good guys always win in the end, right?

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Comments on: "Leo & Kate BAFTA Photo Op ~ Oscars Winners? Not so fast!" (1)

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