I mean, congratulations to all the nominees. And of course, the Awards themselves are very nice to have on your shelf, but how do you compute their actual worth in terms of Oscar gold?
Well, simply put, one Globe nom + one SAG nom = one Oscar nomination, usually.
One nomination without the other usually means there’s still rough weather ahead for the nominee. And no nomination at all means, er, fawdegabowdit. Although not always. It’s maddening. But let’s try to make some sense out of these nods, that were more scrambled eggs than poached.
Let’s start with the Supporting Categories, which are usually the LEAST predictive and more open to change. Although since the Globes have a Musical/Comedy category that is separate from Drama, they only make that distinction for the lead actors. Supporting gets just one category from the Globes. IOW, five nominees. And ditto, only five nominees for Best Actor and Actress for SAG.
As I noted earlier today, Dame Helen Mirren’s double nods for “Trumbo” means she’s PROBABLY heading straight for an Oscar nom, too. The same can be said for Kate Winslet of “Steve Jobs.” But they’re the only two that you can take to the bank in this category.
Jane Fonda for “Youth,” Jennifer Jason Leigh “Hateful Eight” and Alicia Vikander for “Ex Machina” did not appear YESTERDAY when the SAG awards were announced. Though Vikander scored a Best Actress nod from the Globes but for “The Danish Girl.”
SAG saw fit to only nominate Rachel McAdams out of all the ensemble in “Spotlight.” And Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander(yes, her again) were nominated for “Carol” and “The Danish Girl.” SAG put both these ladies in Lead Actress, not Supporting.
Never has the category of Best Supporting Actress been this confusing, I have to say. In all my years of doing this, since I was a child(no, really. I used to compile Oscar lists for my little brother.) never have I seen such a mess, so much category confusion. My brain hurts thinking about it.
So who will get in and who will be left out? Neither Vikander for “The Danish Girl”nor Mara for “Carol” belong in Supporting. They’re leads.
And SAG is sending a message regarding Jane Fonda’s five minutes of screentime in “Youth.” They didn’t nominate her and I think she’ll get left out of the Academy top five, too. And Vikander won’t get in for “Ex Machina.”
Mara, I feel will end up in lead, or nowhere at all. And Vikander for “The Danish Girl” though she could be named for lead, is more likely to end up in Supporting. So then we have McAdams, Leigh, Mirren, Winslet and Vikander appearing here.
Rachel McAdams and Jennifer Jason Leigh are the only two Americans it is interesting to note. But those five make a very good case for being nominated. And I would say that should Vikander become lead, then Fonda or maybe Elizabeth Banks for “Love and Mercy” might complete the five.
“Love and Mercy” isn’t doing very well though with only Paul Dano turning up for the Globes, but not SAG. And it also got one song nomination.
I’ll try to wrap my head around the other categories, which are less complicated. Or are they? This is one crazy mixed up Oscar year -ALREADY! And we’re only in early December!