a.k.a. "The Oscar Messenger"

Oscar Nomination Predictions

It’s tomorrow morning, and I know you can’t wait any longer! So here it is! My Oscar NOMINATION predictions! Things keep changing up to the last minute, and this IS the last minute! So here goes ~

For Best Picture, the Academy allows up to ten and since this is one of the best year’s in memory, I think they will go for ten. Or Nine. If it’s nine I see it as ~

Twelve Years a Slave

American Hustle

Gravity

Captain Phillips

Nebraska

Wolf of Wall Street

Dallas Buyer’s Club 

Philomena

Inside Llewyn Davis

That makes 9 and if it indeed goes all the way to 10 I ad “Her.”

“Inside Llewyn Davis” is in because it is one of the best films EVAH by the Coen Brothers, who have a strong fan base in the Academy. If they nominated “A Serious Man”, they’ll nominate “Llewyn”, even if the major guilds shockingly did not. No DGA, PGA, SAG, or WGA. But I think “Llewyn” gets in anyway. And yes, it’s that good. “Her” I wonder about since it’s about a man(Joaquim Phoenix) falling in love with his computer’s operating system. Many Academy members don’t even HAVE computers. Like Robert Redford for instance. Yes, he’s admitted this in print. Never mind knowing what an Operating System is. But again it’s a question of passionate voters putting it at #1, and there MIGHT be enough of them to get “Her” in. Even if they haven’t noticed that it’s failing at the Box Office. All the rest are slam dunks, IMHO. With the mighty Weinsteins getting only “Philomena” in. But it’s a REALLY good film. And everybody loves it. Compared with their other filles(as Tom O’Neil would say) “August:Osage County” and “Lee Daniel’s The”Butler.”

Best Actress is really easy. There have been five ladies all mature, who have had this category locked up since the Year Dot it seems like. Cate Blanchett “Blue Jasmine”, Sandra Bullock “Gravity”, Emma Thompson “Saving Mr. Banks” and the Weinstein’s gal Dame Judi Dench in “Philomena.” On the outside looking in is Golden Globes Winner for Best Actress Comedy, Amy Adams who has never won, but has been nominated something like five times in nine years, but in Supporting. Some are thinking she knocks out Mother Superior Meryl Streep for “August:Osage County”, but since Meryl’s got Harvey behind her, I think she gets in and Amy doesn’t. Globe win(against Meryl) came AFTER the voting for the Oscar Nomination closed, so it will have no impact here.

I also think for Best Actor “THE FIVE” have been chosen along time ago. Chiwetel Ejiofar “12 Years a Slave”, Bruce Dern “Nebraska”, Tom Hanks “Captain Phillps”, Matthew McConaughey “Dallas Buyers Club” and yes, even Robert Redford “All Is Lost.” I don’t think Leonard Di Caprio is going to get in here. “Wolf of Wall Street” opened too late. and ask yourself is the Academy going to nominated someone who has a lit candle stuck up their ass onscreen, or the founder of the Sundance Film Festival nobly struggling to keep from drowning? At at 77, both Redford and Dern fit the Academy’s demographic. Average age IMHO is 80, if not 85. So Redford gets in and Leo doesn’t.

The Best Supporting Actor and Actress categories are all over the place. As they always are. Some people seem like locks, but these categories are where all the surprises happen. Almost always.

So I going to go with only the locks and stop there. Certainly Jared Leto for “Dallas Buyer’s Club” and Michael Fassbender for “12 Years a Slave” will get nominated. Then it’s anybody’s game. I think Barkhad Abdi will be the next person everybody writes down for “Captain Phillips”. A Somali native playing that frightening pirate captain, who also makes you feel for his down-trodden situation AND it’s his debut acting role. It’s catnip to the Academy.

Daniel Bruhl was just terrific as race car drive turned burn victim Nicki Lauder in “Speed.” He’s been heavily campaigned for and has moved to L.A. and gone to every party in existence as Marion Cotillard did in her Big Year. So I think he’s got a better chance than most of the others. 

Who are the late James Gandolfini. He never would be even considered if he hadn’t passed away. And some people feel that nominating him is like throwing a nomination away.

Bradley Cooper, whose performance in “American Hustle” is all about him have his hair curled BY REAL CURLERS, is a Hairstyle Nominee. Is “American Hustle” THAT popular? Maybe it is. Maybe it isn’t. And since I don’t think Amy Adams gets in, maybe last year’s Best Actor nominee Bradley Cooper DOES. And he LOVES campaigning and the whole Oscar circuit Whoop-Dee-Doo, and so he’s out there on the stump as it were, as his co-star Christian Bale has not been, so maybe the “AH” love will spread to him, too, though I don’t think he deserves it.

I’m going to do Supporting Actress in a separate posting.

 

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