a.k.a. "The Oscar Messenger"

Dear Cineastes, dear readers, dear theatrelovers of literature, my Tony nominee show aired last week in my NYC cable TV time slot, and this week is another brand-new show containing interviews with Emma Roberts and Paul Giamatti and Tony nominee for Best Actor Bobby Cannavale.

The videos of this show have been up for awhile now on You Tube www.youtube.com/StephenHoltShow

But how right were we? And would I change anything now that so many of my critical colleagues have weighed in? And what HAS changed?

Well, for those you of you who don’t want to, or can’t, click on the above link for some reason, here’s the latest.

“The Book of Mormon” “The Book of Mormon” “The Book of Mormon” All three of us pundits on my show DID pick that, too. And it was the only time we all agreed. So that as they say is that. The question remains just how big are its’ coattails? Will it sweep in the Acting categories?

On my show, in the Best Actor in a Musical category, we all agreed that Andrew Rannells and Josh Gad would cancel each other out. But the NY Times’ Patrick Healy, thinks that Josh Gad might have a slight edge. Norbert Leo Butz is what my two TV colleagues said. And I felt it was Tony Shelton for “Priscilla Queen of the Desert.”

EVERYbody on Theatertalk, which shot a Tony show that I couldn’t find(it’s on You Tube under CUNY-TV) because of the pledge week goings-on, all thought Tony Shelton, too.

Norbert Leo Butz won the Drama Desk Award in this category and gave an evidently heart-rending speech. But how much of an overlap is there between the Tony Voters and the Drama Desk? If the show bookers, the tour operators, who supposedly make up  a sizable chunk of the Tony Voters, are looking to award someone who will tour…Tony Shelton is the most likely to do that…

Drag queens with awards? Well, the Tonys have a long history of that. Only last year Douglas Hodge won for his poignant plucky Zaza in the umpteenth revival of “La Cage Aux Folles” They like giving the Tony to an Old Man in a Dress.

But that’s a category that is definitely a toss-up with so many could-win contenders in it.

Two categories that have yielded a clear front runner since we filmed my show at the Bombay Palace restaurant…on a rainy day in May…are Best Actress in a Play, which I agreed at the time with Sherry Eaker, was Frances McDormand. And the other category is Best Actress in a Musical with Sutton Foster! My two compadres, Sherry and Scott Siegel, said Sutton, too. And everyone on Theatertalk did, too.

I said “Patina Miller” in “Sister Act” but since then Sutton seems to be experiencing a groundswell of support, just like “The Book of Mormon” and “Frances McDormand” are. The New York Times didn’t even mention Patina Miller!

The two revival categories~ Play and Musical~ also drew consensus. It’s “Normal Heart” and “Anything Goes” by all. Except me, who said “How To Succeed…”

Oh, Time Out New York agreed with this too. “Mormon”, McDormand and Sutton…

Best Actor in a Play is as up in the air as Best Actor in a Musical. I said Bobby Cannavale for “The Motherfucker with a Hat” but Sherry said “Mark Rylance” for “Jerusalelm” and Scott Siegel said “Al Pacino” for “Merchant of Venice.”

On Theatertalk(you really should try to watch it on YouTube. It’s worth the search.) Surprisingly someone who neither Sherry nor Scott nor I mentioned Joe Mantello from “A Normal Heart” was the consensus winner. With Mark Rylance on the outside. Time Out New York thought Rylance, too….

So THAT category is definitely a toss-up.

And Best Play? Another toss-up. With all four candidates having supporters. Me? I said “Motherfucker with a Hat”. And Scott and Sherry thought “War Horse” as did Time out and a lot of pundits on Theatertalk. “Good People” also just won the New York Critics Circle Award just today after FOUR ROUNDS of voting. And that says something…or does it?

Lots of surprises, toss-ups and blindsides in many, many categories this year, which means it’s been a VERY good year for Broadway.

Watch the Tonys on Sunday night at 8pm on CBS!

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