a.k.a. "The Oscar Messenger"

If I’m counting right, anyone who follows all this Oscar nonsense (like I do) so avidly that they are going from Oscar site to Oscar site trying to take the temperature of the Little Golden Guy, may be a bit surprised to go to www.goldderby.com and see that Tom O’Neil has rounded up a whole passle o’pundits and asked them what they think…NOW…RIGHT NOW. This week. This moment. When MOST Oscar ballots get received and filled out and returned, post-haste.

And frankly, the group is too unwieldy to really get a sense of…unless you’re following one particular pundit, and of course, I’m noting Sasha Stone’s rather startlingly changed Oscar position. A woman definitely had the prerogative of changing her mind, but this is a little confusing.

Oscar goddess Sasha, who I feel knows more than anyone about what’s going on, has gone on Gold Derby from saying at www.awardsdaily.com, her own great site, that “The King’s Speech” is going to take everything in its’ path. And I think that’s right. To now saying to Tom O’Neil Gold Derby that the only Oscars she’s now predicting “The King’s Speech” to win, are THREE! If I’m counting correctly, and I’m slightly dyslexic with numbers…So we’ve gone from 12 to 3 in Sasha’s King Speak. Which would be Best Actor – Colin Firth. Of course, EVERYBODY and EVERY pundit polled predicted him and this has been the case since Toronto…

To just predicting Colin and David Seidler for Best Original Screenplay, to, her only controversial choice, Geoffrey Rush for Best Supporting Actor.

She’s the only one who is predicting him. But of course, I am, too…but Tom didn’t ASK ME!

I think out of loyalty to her season-long advocation of “The Joy of Typing,” she’s switched back to saying it will win Best Picture, Best Film Editing, and Best Original Score, as well as Best Director for David Fincher…

I don’t think any of these wins are happening. But yes, to her Colin Firth, Geoffrey Rush and David Seidler picks, of course.

I think that it’s Tom Hooper and “The King’s Speech” for Best Picture All the Way. And if judging by the FIRST EVER bloggers panel at the Santa Barbara Film Festival, which you can watch at Awardsdaily, and see, at a distance, and very out of focus, from left to right, Jeffrey Wells www.hollywood-elsewhere.com, Scott Feinberg www.scottfeinberg.com , Pete Hammond www.deadlinehollywood.com, Steve Pond www.thewrap.com, Sasha herself, and Anne Thompson www.indiewire.com  being moderated by my frequent guest Peter Rainer of the Christian Science Monitor, who really is a critic and not a blogger.

It was a fascinating moment. This was right after Tom Hooper’s surprise win at the DGA and right BEFORE the SAG awards started, where “The King’s Speech” won – AGAIN.

This bloggers panel is on page two of www.Awardsdaily.com now, but it really is worth checking out.

It’s in Six parts, and there’s nary a close-up, but the sound quality is good, even if the picture is beyond blurry.

But what I was surprised at was how totally “The King’s Speech” dominated the conversation of the panel. They just couldn’t stop talking about it.  I think that means something.

And Sasha, Jeff and Scott Feinberg, were the main proponents of “The Joy of Typing” before the Big Switch happened at the DGA two weeks ago when the whole Oscar race turned upside down to put “The King’s Speech” on top and “Typing” somewhere near the bottom. But at least it was discussed avidly.

“True Grit” and “The Fighter” were barely mentioned. It was like there was no other movies in the race, except TKS and TJOT.

Peter Rainer, turns out, is a big TKS fan. He gave it an “A- minus” he said. I’d give it A++++. I think it’s one of the greatest films I’ve ever seen. And Anne Thompson and Steve Pond were positive about it, too.

Although Steve Pond barely said anything.

So there were two competing teams on this panel. King Team and Team Typing.

And went to Secretarial School. More than once! And I can tell you. There is very little Joy in Typing.

But I digress…

I guess the whole point of this is that “The King’s Speech” seems to have obliterated everything else. And Jeff Wells kept knocking it because “it was a feel good movie.” And return to Old Hollywood values. Among many other things, it is, yes, a World War II movie. It’s certainly Anti-Hitler. And you just LOVE Colin Firth’s great kindly king valiantly getting through the climatic Speech of “The King’s Speech.”

And at one point, a member of the audience asked, referring to who was voting on Best Foreign Film, “Are they elderly?” and Scott Feinberg had to admit that yes, they were. I don’t know how that question landed on him, but he answered it.

But I do think, going back to Sasha’s Gold Derby picks again, that she’s on to something with Geoffrey Rush over Christian Bale.

I do think the Supporting categories are much shakier than generally thought, and Christian Bale, as good as he is in “The Fighter” is not well liked. AND he’s young. He’ll have other chances.

And Geoffrey Rush has won a bunch of precursor awards. And Sasha when said that “The King’s Speech” was going to be “coming back for everything.” Meaning an across the board sweep…thinks that the King’s broom will sweep the King’s Speech Therapist in, too.

I’ve always thought that and said that. And told Geoffrey Rush that himself, when I famously interviewed him and Colin and Geoffrey at the Toronto International Film Festival which is where this blog began, after all.

Sasha also joined forces to predict something else equally startling, to me, Hailee Steinfeld as Best Supporting Actress over Melissa Leo!?! She is joined on Gold Derby by the redoubtable combination of Anne Thompson, Kris Tapley AND David Karger alllll saying the same thing!

And on Movieline, where they have those fabu graphs, THEY’VE got Hailee Steinfeld and Melissa Leo in a TIE!?!

So watch out, Oscarwatchers, and fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be bumpy three weeks

Comments on: "Oscar Goddess Switches Her “King’s Speech” picks on Gold Derby!" (4)

  1. I kind of meandered over to Sasha’s site to read up on the noted prophetess. I tend to think she’s playing the Devil’s Advocate card now for reasons probably understood only by herself. That said, the lady has an acute mind and examines a lot of avenues in her thought.
    Regardless, this is getting far more exciting than I first imagined. There are categories whereby the consensus is pretty much a solid majority. Then, there are others with totally no agreement and predictions all over the place.
    I really wonder what the odds are for a critic to get every category correct. From what I can see, Sasha is not even in the running for that accomplishment.
    Stephen, I know you have predicted that TKS will get all 12 Oscars it was nominated for…. and I hope it does. But, to my mind, that is a monumental task and not very likely. So, I will go out on a limb here and tell you what my prediction will be. Look for TKS to win 7 (or maybe 8) of the Oscars it was nominated for. It goes without say that Colin will win Best Actor.

  2. Dear Kevin,

    Thank you once again your very smart reply. I was just going to post ~ again~ about Sasha and her changing her mind. She’s done it again today, in a 4000 word(!)piece “A Tale of Two Movies.” Where this time she DEFINATELY thinks that “The King’s Speech” will get over 50% which is all it needs in the first round of vote counting. And I think that’s right. So now she’s up to admitting to FOUR-BP, Best Actor, Best Supp. Actor and Best Original Screenplay.

    I’ll go into detail analysizing the KS noms in the other categories later today or tomorrow.

    Sasha a brilliant, brilliant writer. SUCH a writing talent! But this year she went off the deep end with TJOT.

    USUALLY in the past I’ve agreed with her 100%, but not this year.

    You should also watch that Pt.6 Oscar blogger panel, for the REAL skinny. Fascinating dynamic. And you’ll see many of my friends on that panel. Including Sasha.

    She just can’t stop talking about the Oscars, as you’ll see. I think this was her all time FIRST public appearance, to my knowledge.

    She used to be VERY shy.

    • Stephen, Roger Ebert is offering 100,000 dollars if you can outguess his predictions. TKS, by his estimation, will only get two – Best Actor and Supporting Actor. He cites True Grit as best picture and the Coens as Director(s). I think I’m going to have to do intensive analyzing before Oscar night. Still, just think, that money would come in handy for dinners and celebration at the Palm Restaurant. Still think TKS will get the majority of Oscars…..

      • Dear Kevin,

        My show on Bill Dawes, the great actor in “Lombardi” on Broadway is FINALLY debuting tonight, just in time for the Super Bowl! So I must dash! But I will post more later…But NEWSFLASH! From Anne Thompson at Indiewire.com- The Queen of England saw the “King’s Speech” at LOVED it! This has never happened before in the History of Oscar or the History of Movies!!! SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEP!

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