My FINAL Oscar Nomination Predictions of 2010 ~
1.Darren Aronofsky “Black Swan”
2. David Fincher “The Joy of Typing”
3. Tom Hooper “The King’s Speech”
4. Christopher Nolan “Inception”
5. David O. Russell “The Fighter”
My FINAL Oscar Nomination Predictions of 2010 ~
1.Darren Aronofsky “Black Swan”
2. David Fincher “The Joy of Typing”
3. Tom Hooper “The King’s Speech”
4. Christopher Nolan “Inception”
5. David O. Russell “The Fighter”
Oscar Nomination Predictions for the ten film that will prevail on Tuesday morning when the announcements are made at the crack of dawn!
1.The King’s Spech
7. The Kids Are All Right
8. Toy Story 3
9. That film about the Joy of Typing
And 1o. I’m going out on a limb here, but I’m going to say “Alice in Wonderland”
In an unexpected, even by me, upset, “The King’s Speech” won the prestigious Producer’s Guild Award for Best Picture!
What was its’ competition? Well, that film that I now will call “The Joy of Typing.”
And WHY did “The King’s Speech” win? Well, some are saying it was the preferential ballot system that now that it’s a group of Top Ten instead of five that the Academy uses, too.
Confused? Well, in the acting categories, and the other categories, for instance it’s simply the film with the most votes.
The Academy(or in this case “The Producer’s Guild”) members write down their choices from one to ten. Yes, they WRITE them in. They don’t use online voting…and then they MAIL them in.
Once they get to their accountant’s offices, piles are formed.
IOW, there would be a “King’s Speech” pile, counting those votes that had TKS at number one.
Then a “Joy of Typing” pile, with those that like stenography.
Then a pile with “The Fighter” as #1 say. Then “Black Swan” and so on.
FOR EVERY SINGLE MOVIE.
Now if you had a film like say “The Ghost Writer” it, too, would have its’ own pile. Probalby a small one and then that’s where the fun starts.
IF there isn’t a simple majority on the first arrangement of piles, or the first “Round” of ballot counting, then the film, say like “Ghost Writer” has its’ #2 choice taken and put in THAT pile as a number one.
If there is then a majority winner, that film wins, but IF THERE isn’t, then they go to the other remaining smaller piles, say, Toy Story3 for instance. And then take THOSE piles’ #THREE choice and count IT as their NUMBER ONE(Still with me?) and redistribute those #3’s to the piles of the main vote getters…and so on and so on…until a clear #1 is chosen. I think it has to be 50% of the total number of votes cast plus one.
This is also most important because not only are these PGA guys(mostly) who are also ACTUAL ACADEMY Members, but also for Best Picture and only for Best Picture, does the Academy ALSO use this preferential voting system, and because there are also ten, count’em. Ten nominees here, also.
Now, we’ll never, never know, since they don’t release their numbers, if the exquisite “The King’s Speech”, won on the first round with 50% plus one of the votes. Or if it was crowned the mighty winner, on a subsequent redistribution of the ballots. Hence the term prefential balloting.
Now why is this significant? Even MORE significant than the OVERWHELMING number of BAFTA nominations (14) that “The King’s Speech” received? Because the Producer’s Guild has a large, mostly American membership, who ALLLLLL belong also to the Academy.
AND their PRODUCERS. They are the least esoteric of guilds. They are the industry’s bottom-liners. They’re the Money Guys. They are always the most feared of all, these captains of industry, because at any moment they can pull the plug on ANYthing, or cut off the money supply, and suddenly every thing stops.
They look at different things. That “The King’s Speech” was an independent film. As glossy as it looks. It was. Independently financed and a low budget film. THAT LOOKED LIKE A BIG BUDGET FILM. And boasted a stellar ensemble cast of some of the best actors on the planet. Topped by consistant awards King this season, Colin Firth.
And it’s making money, internationally.
And THEY LOVED IT.
I think they felt, they all felt, evidently, as I do, that “The King’s Speech” is a superb, inspiring film about the triumph of the human spirit, triumph over a crippling disablity, and the triumph of friendship(Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush) and the solidity of a good, great marriage (Colin Firth and Helena Bonham-Carter) Positive, positive, positive.
Colin Firth’s performance, as I was saying ALL SEASON, is one of the classic screen performances EVAH, and he has won every major critics’ Award on his way to the Ultimate Podium, as I told him(and you, dear readers, dear cineastes) that he would.
Bravo to Colin, Geoffrey, Helena, Guy Pearce(who plays the bad brother) as the abdictatee King Edward VII and Claire Bloom and Timothy Spall and Derek Jacobi and Michael Gambon, and alll the incredible cast and most of all to the producer behind it all, Harvey Weinstein.
And of course, the gentle director Tom Hooper, who named me after all “The Oscar Messenger.”
Here at last is what I think is going to go down on Tuesday morn at 8am EST when the Oscar Nominations are announced and the whole game changes…or does it? Or is it going to be what everybody has been been saying all season long? Ho-hum.
I used to do this on my TV show, but this year now that I have this wonderful blog, IT’S HERE!
Best Supporting Actor ~
Christian Bale – “The Fighter”
Michael Douglas- “Wall St. 2 Money Never Sleeps”
Jeremy Renner-“The Town”
Mark Ruffalo- “The Kid’s Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush-“The King’s Speech”
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams -“The Fighter”
Helen Bonham-Carter -“The King’s Speech”
Melissa Leo-“The Fighter”
Barbara Hersey-“Black Swan”
Haillee Steinfeld – ‘True Grit”
My reasonings are thus. The Academy whose estimated age is unimaginable, tends to honor veteran performers in the Supporting Categories, when it can. Thus I see Barbara Hersey, who has been nominated only once before in her long carrer, also in Supporting. Hersey gives the most complex, layered, multi-faceted performance as Natalie Portman’s scary/caring/over-powering/over-protective mother. Try to image “Black Swan” without her. You can’t.
Mila Kunis from that film is just young and hot and she plays a lesbian. That seems to have turned many on the precursor awards circuit on, but not me, and not the Academy.
“Another Year”s magnificent Leslie Manville is going to fall victim to category confusion, I’m afraid which leads to vote-splitting, which leads to NOTHING. And she unknown here.
And the late releasing film hasn’t really caught on. Whereas the other possible vote-splitter, Haillee Steinfeld, is in another late released film, “True Grit” that HAS caught on, BIG TIME. And the interest in her(why?????) is so great, that there’s so many that seem to want her IN, that she could turn up in the category she SHOULD be in and was campaigned for in Best Supporting Actress.
Whereas Leslie Manville was campaigned in LEAD, in a tough, competitive year, too, when many thought she should’ve been campaigned in Supporting, she’s just not going to turn up ANYwhere.
And the Brit vote will go to Helena Bonham-Carter in “The King’s Speech.”
Michael Douglas also knocks out another Brit Andrew Garfield, from that Film About Typing….Garfield is soooo young, and the Academy is soooo old and Michael Douglas is a Hollywood legend and he was very, very good in “WS2”. And most importantly, he nearly died this year, from throat cancer. He’s beat it, he says. But who knows? It’s a disease that could be in remission right now and may come back more strongly at any moment.Like during the voting period. And the Academy doesn’t want to risk him dying on them, without even a nomination for very fine work.
The Academy is a bunch of old softies and the LOVE the veteran guys, and regularly reward them over youth, especially in this category.
Also in Douglas’ and Jeremy Renner’s as well as the three from “The Fighter”, and Steinfeld from “True Grit”‘s favor is that they are backed by major studios. Warner Brothers and Paramount.
Then there’s the Harvey Factor. NOBODY runs an Oscar campaign like H. Weinstein and he’s got Geoffrey Rush and Helena Bonham-Carter, both superb in the superb “The King’s Speech.” They might as well nominate Harvey himself. He’s a stealth factor behind alllll the Weinstein Company’s nominees. Though HW is hardly the definition of stealth.
AND LOOK out! IF on Tuesday morning GUY PEARCE ALSO turns up in Supporting for his vile abdicating King Edward VIII in “The King’s Speech” that’s going to show that “The King’s Speech” has much more support from within the Academy than many have thought.
He would, I’m guessing, replace Renner. And this would be, I think, Pearce’s first Oscar nomination. Whoa!
When BAFTA announced yesterday morn that they were putting “The King’s Speech” on top of THEIR Oscar pile (The BAFTAs are considered the British Oscars) and that Movie About Typing at the Bottom with only 6 nominations, which it may not win.
Everybody took notice.
Why? Well, yes, the traditional age-old Snob Effect on the Academy of anything limey. Well, not ANYthing. They seemed to have kicked “Another Year” to the curb, sadly. WHERE IS LESLIE MANVILLE?!? Probably in Oscar limbo forever.
Category confusion is Oscar’s most deadly disease.
After winning Best Actress from the National Board of Review, Manville turned up NOwhere in the U.S. lists,or anywhere else, until she appeared in Supporting Actress at the BAFTA awards. Surprise! There she was at last. Back in her own country, not as Best Actress, but as Best Supporting Actress.
But the BIGGEST surprise of the BAFTAS that landed with a WALLOP was the omission of Golden Globe and BFCA winner for Best Supporting Actress( I tell ya, that race is a doozy this year) MELISSA LEO?!?
HOW is this possible? Well, I guess the Brits didn’t like the “Fighter” THAT much. They didn’t nominate it for Best Picture,and though they grudingly nominated Christian Bale and Amy Adams in Supporting, they RRRREALLLY didn’t like Melissa’s Grand Guignol Monster Mom from Massachusetts.
Shocking it was that she was riding high SUNDAY NIGHT and now Monday morning they shot her down! She’s in stark jeopardy!
Oh, she’ll be nominated all right. The nominations had to be in to be counted by Friday. But can she win without the prestige of a BAFTA nom NOT on her CV?
In such a constantly changing category as this year’s Best Supporting Actress,(and Best Actress, too, come to think of it, but more on that later) Melissa Leo can be now counted as NOT A SURE THING. But don’t worry Melissa Leo fans, she WILL be nominated! But winning, I wonder…
I think she’s a great unsung American actress, who is now being sung.
But her low-class harpie mom-ster, Alice Eklund, may not be the right tune for the snobby Academy, though Melissa herself seems to know every single member personally and everybody LOVES her.
I think she can play anything. You give her a difficult role and boy! Will she go to town with it. Like she did last year with “Frozen River,” last year’s “Winter’s Bone”, a teeny tiny Indie directed by a woman about a woman (last year Leo, this year Jennifer Lawrence) who stands up to injustice and protects her brood at all costs in a rural setting.
Oscar goddess Sasha Stone’s unremitting advocating for Melissa Leo’s out-of-left field nomination for Best Actress actually contributed to making that nomination happen, IMHO.
She’s doing the same kind of tub-thumping this year for Jennifer Lawrence, who I can’t get behind, and whose nomination, I think, is shakier than people realize she is. And Melissa Leo is becoming a kind of feminist heroine.
She’s the older actress who has mucho chops, who is still fighting her way BACK to the Oscars, now two years in a row, it seems. Melissa Leo is an actress’ actress. She kinda sorta eschews glamour, like wearing her “old tux” to the BFCA awards when she won. And then an OK gown, that was so unremarkable her picture in it appeared NOWHERE in the MANY pictures of the Golden Globe’s red carpet, and the bejeweled, be-gowned actresses upon them. And where was Melissa? Nowhere to be found. And she won! And Natalie Portman the other big winner was EVERYwhere!
The Academy looks at that and sniffs, “Well, she’s not a star.” And she isn’t. The public doesn’t know her like those in the business do. Melissa who? But she’s a constantly working, supremely talented ACTRESS. Did you recognize her THIS year in another Oscar baity film “Convinction” as the evil policewoman who wrecks Sam Rockwell’s life? YES, that dried-up, prune-faced, lying cop was Melissa Leo, too!
All of these things should ad up to Melissa Leo winning a Supporting Actress Oscar, since she’s the type of actress this category and these awards were created for in the first place…but…she was SNUBBED by BAFTA!
But the thing about BAFTA is for the first time this year, people are noticing that we have a voting body that actually OVERLAPS the American Academy it is said to the tune of 1000 members out of 6000 AMPAS voters. And each year the Academy(and the press AND the blogosphere) is paying more attention than ever. It just keeps growing and growing . In coverage. In importance. And the more coverage the BAFTAs get, the more important. And influential, they become.
So who would be the BAFTA front-runner in that tumultous BSA category? I think it’s Helen Bonham-Carter as the slam-dunk.
My esteemed colleague David Karger at Entertainment Weekly takes this Oscar business VERY seriously. I always had the ultimate respect for his opinions, insights and conclusions. And Dave, like me, is still staunchly insisting that “The King’s Speech” is the front-runner to win Best Picture, and this avalanche of BAFTA nominations seem to prove us right.
ALLLL That Typing Movie’s awards were from the press. Who, let’s face it, spend all day typing.
BAFTA is the first time we’ve heard from a large group of industry professionals. And attention must by paid.
As I said earlier today at www.Awardsdaily.com , in the section of Comments on The BAFTAS!
I think where the BAFTAS have the most impact (on Oscar) is where there is a very close race, like this year’s Supporting Actress and certainly Best Picture.
When the BAFTAS finally do their thing, and announce their winners, it’s timed astutely to be RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OSCAR VOTING PERIOD.
Personally, I think most Academy Members who are actually voting, mail their ballots (by Snail Mail, yes, that’s how they do it) immediately that they receive them.
But sometimes the BAFTAS have an impact in recent years that sways Oscar’s contests…like for instance, when it was Mickey Rourke v. Sean Penn a couple of years back for ANOTHER Pugilistic Movie “The Wrestler” v.Sean Penn’s assassinated Gay Rights leader Harvey Milk in “Milk.”
Actually, Rourke WON the BAFTA, then got up and made a truly embarassing acceptance speech dropping the F-bomb so may times on the stunned Limeys, it seemed like the Blitz was back on.
And I knew, I just knew, if there was any doubt in any Academy voters mind who STILL hadn’t mailed in their ballots, Rourke just lost it big time there. With that speech and the Academy was NOT going to let itself be embarassed by awarding him in the same way. The Snob Effect. See.
So Sean Penn won and he should’ve for his great portrayal of a complicated, but sweet crusader…who died SUCH a tragic death.
I could go on.
And I will.
Also, take the instance of Marion Cotillard’s surprise win at the Oscars the year before that. She trounced Brit legend Julie Christie in the politically correct Alzheimer’s movie “Away From Her.”
How did THAT happen? Marion a UNKNOWN foreign actress acting in her own language (French) WON for playing Edith Piaf, gave a beautiful, totally shocked, moving acceptance speech at the BAFTAs for “La Vie En Rose” and then WON at the Oscars.
It also didn’t hurt that night that at the BAFTAS that Best Actor winner Daniel Day Lewis said in HIS acceptance speech that “Marion Cotillard is acting on a different level than all of us.” And I think that sealed Marion’s deal.
Marion also MOVED to L.A. during this crucial voting period and went to EVERY Hollywood party and charmed and enchanted all her met her, as did my other unknown(at the time) actress friend Marcia Gay Harden, who appeared out of nowhere to be nominated with no precursor awards. In 2000. But “The Stephen Holt Show” had her.
And SHE won. Best Supporting Actress for “Pollock”.
So who could surprise? Who could win THIS year? Well, it looks like it’s Natalie Portman, an American princess to be sure for “Black Swan.” BAFTA, yes, has nominated her for Best Actress.
But wait! Who else popped out of nowhere at BAFTA?!? NOOOOOMI RAPACE!??
And “The Girl Who Kicked the Hornet’s Nest” the last of the Steig Larsson Millenium Trilogy, picked up three nominations at BAFTA including Noomi’s Best Actress.
And wait, she’s foreign. But hardly unknown in London, where she has moved to escape the paparazzi-fest that her incredible portrait of Lisbeth Salander turned her life into in her native Sweden.
She’s embraced London and British society totally. And they her. And I just have this feeling that the Brits feel this immense sense of injustice being done to Noomi, who endured A YEAR AND A HALF of CONSTANT filming of the three Larsson movies, all shot one right after the other after the other, since Noomi has been replaced by an unknown American girl Rooney Mara. And that these beloved, hugely successful movies are being now remade IN ENGLISH by David Fincher….He who directed The Typing Movie…
Well, it wouldn’t surprise me to hear Noomi Rapace’s name called on BAFTA night.
And how will that impact the Oscar race for Best Actress? Well, if she’s not nominated, not a bit.
But I think people in England are enraged by these remakes by the presumptous Americans who have the NERVE to redo those beautiful Swedish movies! And watch they give their best director to home town boy Tom Hooper for “The King’s Speech.” NOT to David Fincher, who has the temerity to remake these Larsson/Salander movies! The NERVE of him!
This would really set those Yankees back a few steps, if it was then to be recorded by all the journos in the world press, who are bound to write about these great Swedish films V. the trashy American re-makes. Well, the Swedish movies starred the BAFTA AWARD WINNING BEST ACTRESS NOOMI RAPACE. Then every time someone wrote about these new American versions,they’d HAVE to mention BAFTA. Not that Noomi could upset Natalie in the U.S. ,but in Britain she certainly could.
And Noomi would give a beautiful, charming,moving acceptance speech. You know she would.
And also, now that I think of it Noomi’s Lisbeth GETS A GUNSHOT WOUND TO THE BRAIN AT POINT BLANK RANGE !!! AND SURVIVES!!! There’s also that political parallel to be raised…so I’m raising it. Gaby Giffords is a heroine, but so is Lisbeth. Especially to Europeans. She’s a fictional character, but who can forget her first entrance in “Hornet’s Nest” where they are cutting open her skull, and are showing REMOVING A BULLET from her brain! And she SURVIVES!
And oh, Melissa Leo…back to her…
What has the BAFTA done to HER Oscar race? Well, I think it’s stopped it dead in its’ tracks, I’m sorry to say.
I think she and co-star Amy Adams will BOTH be nominated and cancel each other out and Helena Bonham-Carter will sweep in and win as she certainly will the BAFTAS for “The King’s Speech.”
However, what does Dave Karger think this does? Check out his updated lists at www.ew.com
But I’ll tell you who Dave has picked to win Best Supporting Actress now. AMY ADAMS!?!?
It could happen. She’s been nominated twice before. They know her. They love her. And she’s still young and beautiful and she’s wonderful in “The Fighter” too. Playing something she’s never played before. A tough, working class chick, a bartender no less.
So THAT’S what the BAFTAs have done with their snubbing of Melissa Leo, they’ve HELPED Amy Adams BIG TIME!
WELLLLLLL, THIS is good news! After the wretch-fest that was this year’s best-quickly forgotten Golden Globs, the British Academy Awards equivalent, the BAFTAs corrected all the wrongs and nominated “The King’s Speech” for 16 Awards! YAY!
I’m sooooo relieved!
I tell you, I keep hearing from Academy Voting Members that they LOVE, LOVE, LOVE “The King’s Speech” and I knew of course, the British would go for it en masse, and they did. The Oscar nominations are all in, and being tabulated as we speak by their accountants, counting all the nomination ballots by hand. Yes, that’s the way they do it. Still. But it guarantees secrecy. Were these to be sent in online, they could be hacked into, so THAT’S where the Academy stands on the Internet. And the Film I Will Not Name got a paltry six, an embarassingly small number, after trouncing “The King’s Speech” at the Awardsfest this weekend. All is suddenly right with the world. Of course, Colin Firth won all contests.
Best Picture, Actor(Colin Firth), Best Supporting Actor(Geoffrey Rush) and Best Supporting Actress(Helena Bonham-Carter), Best Original Screenplay(David Seidler) and every thing else under the British sun, including Best Make-Up!
The Best Actress category was the biggest surprise with BOTH Annette Bening and Julianne Moore from “The Kids Are All Right”, which I think the Oscars are going to do. Natalie Portman, natch, and NOOOOOOOMI Rapace for “The Girl Who Kicked The Hornet’s Nest”!?! Soooo thrilled for NOOOOOOOOOOOOOMI! And Hailee Steinfeld!?!?
This leaves out Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Lawrence(for “Winter’s Bore”thank goodness!! ) and also sadly Michelle Williams.
“The Girl Who Kicked…” also turned up with two other nominations for Best Screenplay, and also best foreign film!!!
I think FINALLY “The King’s Speech” is going to sweep here and this may influence the Oscar’s end result. One can only hope.
Other significant left-outs – Melissa Leo in Best Supporting Actor for “The Fighter”!! Amy Adams made it in here. And so, I’m happy to point out did Miranda Richardson. And of course, left IN is Helena Bonham-Carter who I mentioned earlier ^ and she will probably triumph here. Also, happily the great Barbara Hersey made it into this category instead of the massively mediocre Mila Kunis for “Black Swan.”
Congratulations to Colin, Geoffrey, Helena, Miranda, Barbara, director Tom Hooper and NOOOOOMI! WOWOWOW!
So now if you’re counting such things, and we KNOW you are, that’s “The King’s Speech” getting more than TWICE the amount of that OTHER film. The one about typing.
Gold Derby also points out how influential the BAFTAS are on the Oscars these past few years since it switched it’s ceremony time to come down RIGHT DURING the actual Oscar voting. I still think her win at BAFTA and Daniel Day Lewis’ wonderful words about her perfomance as Edith Piaf, helped win the virtually unknown Marion Cotillard her unexpected(but not by me) Oscar for Best Actress!
Guy Lodge, a Brit himself, has plenty o’ insight into this Brit fest at Chris Tapley’s great oscar site www.incontention.com
Oh, and congratulations and thank you, too, to Rising Stars nominees Gemma Arterton”Tamara Drewe” and Aaron Johnson “Nowhere Boy”!